187 research outputs found
Special Cases
International audienceThis chapter reviews special cases of lower previsions, that are instrumental in practical applications. We emphasize their various advantages and drawbacks, as well as the kind of problems in which they can be the most useful
Nonlinear Bayesian Estimation with Convex Sets of Probability Densities
This paper presents a theoretical framework for Bayesian estimation in the case of imprecisely known probability density functions. The lack of knowledge about the true density functions is represented by sets of densities. A formal Bayesian estimator for these sets is introduced, which is intractable for infinite sets. To obtain a tractable filter, properties of convex sets in form of convex polytopes of densities are investigated. It is shown that pathwise connected sets and their convex hulls describe the same ignorance. Thus, an exact algorithm is derived, which only needs to process the hull, delivering tractable results in the case of a proper parametrization. Since the estimator delivers a convex hull of densities as output, the theoretical grounds are laid for deriving efficient Bayesian estimators for sets of densities. The derived filter is illustrated by means of an example
Credal Networks under Epistemic Irrelevance
A credal network under epistemic irrelevance is a generalised type of
Bayesian network that relaxes its two main building blocks. On the one hand,
the local probabilities are allowed to be partially specified. On the other
hand, the assessments of independence do not have to hold exactly.
Conceptually, these two features turn credal networks under epistemic
irrelevance into a powerful alternative to Bayesian networks, offering a more
flexible approach to graph-based multivariate uncertainty modelling. However,
in practice, they have long been perceived as very hard to work with, both
theoretically and computationally.
The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that this perception is no longer
justified. We provide a general introduction to credal networks under epistemic
irrelevance, give an overview of the state of the art, and present several new
theoretical results. Most importantly, we explain how these results can be
combined to allow for the design of recursive inference methods. We provide
numerous concrete examples of how this can be achieved, and use these to
demonstrate that computing with credal networks under epistemic irrelevance is
most definitely feasible, and in some cases even highly efficient. We also
discuss several philosophical aspects, including the lack of symmetry, how to
deal with probability zero, the interpretation of lower expectations, the
axiomatic status of graphoid properties, and the difference between updating
and conditioning
A probabilistic interpretation of set-membership filtering: application to polynomial systems through polytopic bounding
Set-membership estimation is usually formulated in the context of set-valued
calculus and no probabilistic calculations are necessary. In this paper, we
show that set-membership estimation can be equivalently formulated in the
probabilistic setting by employing sets of probability measures. Inference in
set-membership estimation is thus carried out by computing expectations with
respect to the updated set of probability measures P as in the probabilistic
case. In particular, it is shown that inference can be performed by solving a
particular semi-infinite linear programming problem, which is a special case of
the truncated moment problem in which only the zero-th order moment is known
(i.e., the support). By writing the dual of the above semi-infinite linear
programming problem, it is shown that, if the nonlinearities in the measurement
and process equations are polynomial and if the bounding sets for initial
state, process and measurement noises are described by polynomial inequalities,
then an approximation of this semi-infinite linear programming problem can
efficiently be obtained by using the theory of sum-of-squares polynomial
optimization. We then derive a smart greedy procedure to compute a polytopic
outer-approximation of the true membership-set, by computing the minimum-volume
polytope that outer-bounds the set that includes all the means computed with
respect to P
Imprecise Continuous-Time Markov Chains
Continuous-time Markov chains are mathematical models that are used to
describe the state-evolution of dynamical systems under stochastic uncertainty,
and have found widespread applications in various fields. In order to make
these models computationally tractable, they rely on a number of assumptions
that may not be realistic for the domain of application; in particular, the
ability to provide exact numerical parameter assessments, and the applicability
of time-homogeneity and the eponymous Markov property. In this work, we extend
these models to imprecise continuous-time Markov chains (ICTMC's), which are a
robust generalisation that relaxes these assumptions while remaining
computationally tractable.
More technically, an ICTMC is a set of "precise" continuous-time finite-state
stochastic processes, and rather than computing expected values of functions,
we seek to compute lower expectations, which are tight lower bounds on the
expectations that correspond to such a set of "precise" models. Note that, in
contrast to e.g. Bayesian methods, all the elements of such a set are treated
on equal grounds; we do not consider a distribution over this set.
The first part of this paper develops a formalism for describing
continuous-time finite-state stochastic processes that does not require the
aforementioned simplifying assumptions. Next, this formalism is used to
characterise ICTMC's and to investigate their properties. The concept of lower
expectation is then given an alternative operator-theoretic characterisation,
by means of a lower transition operator, and the properties of this operator
are investigated as well. Finally, we use this lower transition operator to
derive tractable algorithms (with polynomial runtime complexity w.r.t. the
maximum numerical error) for computing the lower expectation of functions that
depend on the state at any finite number of time points
Static Analysis of Programs with Imprecise Probabilistic Inputs
International audienceHaving a precise yet sound abstraction of the inputs of numerical programs is important to analyze their behavior. For many programs, these inputs are probabilistic, but the actual distribution used is only partially known. We present a static analysis framework for reasoning about programs with inputs given as imprecise probabilities: we define a collecting semantics based on the notion of previsions and an abstract semantics based on an extension of Dempster-Shafer structures. We prove the correctness of our approach and show on some realistic examples the kind of invariants we are able to infer.Il est important de disposer d'une abstraction précise mais correcte des entrées d'un programme numérique pour analyser ses comportements. Pour de nombreux programmes, ces entrées sont probabilistes, mais la distribution réellement utilisée n'est connue que partiellement. Nous présentons un cadre d'analyse statique permettant le raisonnement sur des programmes dont les entrées sont données sous forme de probabilités imprécises: nous définissons une sémantique collectrice fondée sur la notion de prévisions et une sémantique abstraite fondée sur une extension des structures de Dempster-Shafer. Nous démontrons la correction de notre approche et montrons sur des exemples réalistes le genre d'invariants que nous sommes capables d'inférer
Reintroducing credal networks under epistemic irrelevance
A credal network under epistemic irrelevance is a generalised version of a Bayesian network that loosens its two main building blocks. On the one hand, the local probabilities do not have to be specified exactly. On the other hand, the assumptions of independence do not have to hold exactly. Conceptually, these credal networks are elegant and useful. However, in practice, they have long remained very hard to work with, both theoretically and computationally. This paper provides a general introduction to this type of credal networks and presents some promising new theoretical developments that were recently proved using sets of desirable gambles and lower previsions. We explain these developments in terms of probabilities and expectations, thereby making them more easily accessible to the Bayesian network community
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