UKERC Review of evidence for the rebound effect: Technical report 2: Econometric studies

This Working Paper examines the evidence for direct rebound effects that is available from studies that use econometric techniques to analyse secondary data. The focus throughout is on consumer energy services, since this is where the bulk of the evidence lies

Agent-based control for decentralised demand side management in the smart grid

Central to the vision of the smart grid is the deployment of smart meters that will allow autonomous software agents, representing the consumers, to optimise their use of devices and heating in the smart home while interacting with the grid. However, without some form of coordination, the population of agents may end up with overly-homogeneous optimised consumption patterns that may generate significant peaks in demand in the grid. These peaks, in turn, reduce the efficiency of the overall system, increase carbon emissions, and may even, in the worst case, cause blackouts. Hence, in this paper, we introduce a novel model of a Decentralised Demand Side Management (DDSM) mechanism that allows agents, by adapting the deferment of their loads based on grid prices, to coordinate in a decentralised manner. Specifically, using average UK consumption profiles for 26M homes, we demonstrate that, through an emergent coordination of the agents, the peak demand of domestic consumers in the grid can be reduced by up to 17% and carbon emissions by up to 6%. We also show that our DDSM mechanism is robust to the increasing electrification of heating in UK homes (i.e. it exhibits a similar efficiency)

Energy use and energy access in relation to poverty

This paper looks at how access and use of energy are related to poverty. Different approaches to how energy poverty might be measured are presented. One approach involves the estimation of basic energy needs of a household based on engineering calculations and certain normative assumptions. The second looks at poverty in relation to access to different energy sources. An alternative approach is then provided that combines the elements of access and consumption of energy in order to examine how these relate to the well being of households. Examining well being in terms of both these dimensions – access to clean and efficient energy sources; and sufficiency in terms of the quantity of energy consumed, could be an important complementary measure of poverty. The consumption dimension includes non-commercial consumption and thus includes self-produced and bartered products. The access dimension can serve as an indicator of the extent of market integration, or more specifically, as an indicator of the opportunity to join the modern market economy.

Scenarios for the development of smart grids in the UK: literature review

Smart grids are expected to play a central role in any transition to a low-carbon energy future, and much research is currently underway on practically every area of smart grids. However, it is evident that even basic aspects such as theoretical and operational definitions, are yet to be agreed upon and be clearly defined. Some aspects (efficient management of supply, including intermittent supply, two-way communication between the producer and user of electricity, use of IT technology to respond to and manage demand, and ensuring safe and secure electricity distribution) are more commonly accepted than others (such as smart meters) in defining what comprises a smart grid. It is clear that smart grid developments enjoy political and financial support both at UK and EU levels, and from the majority of related industries. The reasons for this vary and include the hope that smart grids will facilitate the achievement of carbon reduction targets, create new employment opportunities, and reduce costs relevant to energy generation (fewer power stations) and distribution (fewer losses and better stability). However, smart grid development depends on additional factors, beyond the energy industry. These relate to issues of public acceptability of relevant technologies and associated risks (e.g. data safety, privacy, cyber security), pricing, competition, and regulation; implying the involvement of a wide range of players such as the industry, regulators and consumers. The above constitute a complex set of variables and actors, and interactions between them. In order to best explore ways of possible deployment of smart grids, the use of scenarios is most adequate, as they can incorporate several parameters and variables into a coherent storyline. Scenarios have been previously used in the context of smart grids, but have traditionally focused on factors such as economic growth or policy evolution. Important additional socio-technical aspects of smart grids emerge from the literature review in this report and therefore need to be incorporated in our scenarios. These can be grouped into four (interlinked) main categories: supply side aspects, demand side aspects, policy and regulation, and technical aspects.

User flexibility aware price policy synthesis for smart grids

In order to optimally manage a modern electricity distribution network, peaks in residential users demand should be avoided, as this can reduce energy and network asset management costs. Furthermore, this must be done without compressing residential users demand. To this aim, in a demand response setting, residential users are given a price policy, which economically motivates them to shift their loads in order to achieve this goal. However, if the price policy for all users is similar, this demand response may result in simply shifting the demand peaks (peak rebound), leaving the problem unsolved. In this paper we propose a novel methodology which i) for each network substation s, automatically computes the desired power profile to be kept in order to optimally manage the network itself, ii) for each network substation s, automatically synthesizes individualized price policies for residential users connected to s, so that s is kept at the desired profile. Note that price policies individualization avoids the peak rebound problem, as different users have different low tariff areas. Furthermore, our methodology measures the flexibility of a residential user as the capacity needed by a home energy storage system (e.g., a battery) to always follow the given price policy, thus mitigating residential users discomfort. We show the feasibility of our approach on a realistic scenario taken from an existing medium voltage Danish distribution network

Digital twins for monitoring and predicting the cooking of food products: A case study for a French crêpe

The food industry is shifting toward automated and customized processes, leading to the emergence of smart cooking devices that improve cooking outcomes. However, these devices can be invasive, costly, and only applicable to certain foods. To address these issues, a noninvasive digital twin that monitors food during cooking using a common frying pan with a temperature sensor and a weighing scale is proposed. A case study for a French crêpe is presented, in which we developed a digital twin using a neural network trained on over 400,000 simulation data points. The results show that the digital twin can accurately estimate the properties of the crêpe during cooking in real time with a mean absolute percentage error of less than 5% and predict when it will be cooked according to user criteria. The approach offers significant benefits over existing smart cooking devices, as it can be applied to a wide range of cooking processes. The proposed technology enables food process automation and has potential applications in both home and professional kitchens

Protocols for thermal and emissions performance testing of domestic fuels and stoves

M.Phil.The combustion of fuels in poorly designed cookstoves is a major anthropogenic source of atmospheric emissions with severe environmental and health implications. It is widely acknowledged that these challenges are best addressed with the development and dissemination of clean cookstoves. Widely used stove testing protocols (UCB Water Boiling Test and variants) are often single task-based and not representative of real-world uses or likely combinations of the manner in which fuels, stoves and pots may be used. The hypothesis of this study is that a stove testing procedure that provides for testing of stove/fuel/pot combinations, in a sequence of heterogeneous tests, provides a better representation of thermal performance and emissions than existing protocols based on prescribed fuels and fuel loads, and single tasks. The study aimed to develop and evaluate a set of testing protocols for determining thermal efficiency and emissions performance of domestic fuels and cooking devices to satisfy the rigorous performance specifications expected for claims under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) carbon trading market. The Heterogeneous stove Testing Protocol (HTP) was developed and documented as a complete set of standard operating procedures (SOPs), using a template derived from the Desert Research Institute (DRI), Reno, Nevada, and used for performance evaluation of fuel/stove combinations. The effect of pot size on the performance of two paraffin wick stoves and a pressurised paraffin stove was assessed and was found not to be a major factor, which affected thermal efficiency only at the high power setting. Power setting was found to influence the thermal efficiency and combustion performance of all stoves tested, indicating the need for assessment of the devices across the full range of power settings (where feasible). The HTP was also employed in characterising the combustion performance of coal stoves, using three different ignition methods, giving qualitative and quantitative results. Compared to the bottom-lit up-draft (BLUD) ignition method, the Basa njengo Magogo, also referred to as the top-lit up draft (TLUD) method, proved to be a better method of coal fires ignition, in terms of reduced CO:CO2 ratio and less smoke generation than in conventional braziers. The bottom-lit down-draft (BLDD) ignition method, incorporated in the SeTAR prototype coal stove, was found to be effective in fuel utilisation and improved combustion efficiency compared to the TLUD and BLUD methods, with CO:CO2 emission factors below 1% for 230 minutes. A number of parameters employed by the Water Boiling Test (WBT) were examined and compared with the HTP (e.g. turn-down ratio; simmer process; hot-start phase; use of standardised fuels and test pots). The HTP was found to provide more representative performance data over a wide range of use scenarios, the equivalent of providing performance curves rather than the minimum and maximum performance points provided by the WBT. The findings of this study have shown that the Heterogeneous stove Testing Protocol is consistent, robust, and transportable; making it a valuable tool for stove design improvements, and for the assessment of stoves under voluntary and compulsory carbon markets

Carbon Free Boston: Buildings Technical Report

Part of a series of reports that includes: Carbon Free Boston: Summary Report; Carbon Free Boston: Social Equity Report; Carbon Free Boston: Technical Summary; Carbon Free Boston: Transportation Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Waste Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Energy Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Offsets Technical Report; Available at http://sites.bu.edu/cfb/OVERVIEW: Boston is known for its historic iconic buildings, from the Paul Revere House in the North End, to City Hall in Government Center, to the Old South Meeting House in Downtown Crossing, to the African Meeting House on Beacon Hill, to 200 Clarendon (the Hancock Tower) in Back Bay, to Abbotsford in Roxbury. In total, there are over 86,000 buildings that comprise more than 647 million square feet of area. Most of these buildings will still be in use in 2050. Floorspace (square footage) is almost evenly split between residential and non-residential uses, but residential buildings account for nearly 80,000 (93 percent) of the 86,000 buildings. Boston’s buildings are used for a diverse range of activities that include homes, offices, hospitals, factories, laboratories, schools, public service, retail, hotels, restaurants, and convention space. Building type strongly influences energy use; for example, restaurants, hospitals, and laboratories have high energy demands compared to other commercial uses. Boston’s building stock is characterized by thousands of turn-of-the-20th century homes and a postWorld War II building boom that expanded both residential buildings and commercial space. Boston is in the midst of another boom in building construction that is transforming neighborhoods across the city. [TRUNCATED]Published versio

The Kalai-Smorodinski solution for many-objective Bayesian optimization

An ongoing aim of research in multiobjective Bayesian optimization is to extend its applicability to a large number of objectives. While coping with a limited budget of evaluations, recovering the set of optimal compromise solutions generally requires numerous observations and is less interpretable since this set tends to grow larger with the number of objectives. We thus propose to focus on a specific solution originating from game theory, the Kalai-Smorodinsky solution, which possesses attractive properties. In particular, it ensures equal marginal gains over all objectives. We further make it insensitive to a monotonic transformation of the objectives by considering the objectives in the copula space. A novel tailored algorithm is proposed to search for the solution, in the form of a Bayesian optimization algorithm: sequential sampling decisions are made based on acquisition functions that derive from an instrumental Gaussian process prior. Our approach is tested on four problems with respectively four, six, eight, and nine objectives. The method is available in the Rpackage GPGame available on CRAN at https://cran.r-project.org/package=GPGame