Predicting Short-Term Traffic Congestion on Urban Motorway Networks

Traffic congestion is a widely occurring phenomenon caused by increased use of vehicles on roads resulting in slower speeds, longer delays, and increased vehicular queueing in traffic. Every year, over a thousand hours are spent in traffic congestion leading to great cost and time losses. In this thesis, we propose a multimodal data fusion framework for predicting traffic congestion on urban motorway networks. It comprises of three main approaches. The first approach predicts traffic congestion on urban motorway networks using data mining techniques. Two categories of models are considered namely neural networks, and random forest classifiers. The neural network models include the back propagation neural network and deep belief network. The second approach predicts traffic congestion using social media data. Twitter traffic delay tweets are analyzed using sentiment analysis and cluster classification for traffic flow prediction. Lastly, we propose a data fusion framework as the third approach. It comprises of two main techniques. The homogeneous data fusion technique fuses data of same types (quantitative or numeric) estimated using machine learning algorithms. The heterogeneous data fusion technique fuses the quantitative data obtained from the homogeneous data fusion model and the qualitative or categorical data (i.e. traffic tweet information) from twitter data source using Mamdani fuzzy rule inferencing systems. The proposed work has strong practical applicability and can be used by traffic planners and decision makers in traffic congestion monitoring, prediction and route generation under disruption

From Data to Actions in Intelligent Transportation Systems: A Prescription of Functional Requirements for Model Actionability

Advances in Data Science permeate every field of Transportation Science and Engineering, resulting in developments in the transportation sector that are data-driven. Nowadays, Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) could be arguably approached as a “story” intensively producing and consuming large amounts of data. A diversity of sensing devices densely spread over the infrastructure, vehicles or the travelers’ personal devices act as sources of data flows that are eventually fed into software running on automatic devices, actuators or control systems producing, in turn, complex information flows among users, traffic managers, data analysts, traffic modeling scientists, etc. These information flows provide enormous opportunities to improve model development and decision-making. This work aims to describe how data, coming from diverse ITS sources, can be used to learn and adapt data-driven models for efficiently operating ITS assets, systems and processes; in other words, for data-based models to fully become actionable. Grounded in this described data modeling pipeline for ITS, we define the characteristics, engineering requisites and challenges intrinsic to its three compounding stages, namely, data fusion, adaptive learning and model evaluation. We deliberately generalize model learning to be adaptive, since, in the core of our paper is the firm conviction that most learners will have to adapt to the ever-changing phenomenon scenario underlying the majority of ITS applications. Finally, we provide a prospect of current research lines within Data Science that can bring notable advances to data-based ITS modeling, which will eventually bridge the gap towards the practicality and actionability of such models.This work was supported in part by the Basque Government for its funding support through the EMAITEK program (3KIA, ref. KK-2020/00049). It has also received funding support from the Consolidated Research Group MATHMODE (IT1294-19) granted by the Department of Education of the Basque Government

A framework for smart traffic management using heterogeneous data sources

A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the University of Wolverhampton for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy.Traffic congestion constitutes a social, economic and environmental issue to modern cities as it can negatively impact travel times, fuel consumption and carbon emissions. Traffic forecasting and incident detection systems are fundamental areas of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) that have been widely researched in the last decade. These systems provide real time information about traffic congestion and other unexpected incidents that can support traffic management agencies to activate strategies and notify users accordingly. However, existing techniques suffer from high false alarm rate and incorrect traffic measurements. In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in integrating different types of data sources to achieve higher precision in traffic forecasting and incident detection techniques. In fact, a considerable amount of literature has grown around the influence of integrating data from heterogeneous data sources into existing traffic management systems. This thesis presents a Smart Traffic Management framework for future cities. The proposed framework fusions different data sources and technologies to improve traffic prediction and incident detection systems. It is composed of two components: social media and simulator component. The social media component consists of a text classification algorithm to identify traffic related tweets. These traffic messages are then geolocated using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. Finally, with the purpose of further analysing user emotions within the tweet, stress and relaxation strength detection is performed. The proposed text classification algorithm outperformed similar studies in the literature and demonstrated to be more accurate than other machine learning algorithms in the same dataset. Results from the stress and relaxation analysis detected a significant amount of stress in 40% of the tweets, while the other portion did not show any emotions associated with them. This information can potentially be used for policy making in transportation, to understand the users��� perception of the transportation network. The simulator component proposes an optimisation procedure for determining missing roundabouts and urban roads flow distribution using constrained optimisation. Existing imputation methodologies have been developed on straight section of highways and their applicability for more complex networks have not been validated. This task presented a solution for the unavailability of roadway sensors in specific parts of the network and was able to successfully predict the missing values with very low percentage error. The proposed imputation methodology can serve as an aid for existing traffic forecasting and incident detection methodologies, as well as for the development of more realistic simulation networks

Intelligent Transportation Related Complex Systems and Sensors

Building around innovative services related to different modes of transport and traffic management, intelligent transport systems (ITS) are being widely adopted worldwide to improve the efficiency and safety of the transportation system. They enable users to be better informed and make safer, more coordinated, and smarter decisions on the use of transport networks. Current ITSs are complex systems, made up of several components/sub-systems characterized by time-dependent interactions among themselves. Some examples of these transportation-related complex systems include: road traffic sensors, autonomous/automated cars, smart cities, smart sensors, virtual sensors, traffic control systems, smart roads, logistics systems, smart mobility systems, and many others that are emerging from niche areas. The efficient operation of these complex systems requires: i) efficient solutions to the issues of sensors/actuators used to capture and control the physical parameters of these systems, as well as the quality of data collected from these systems; ii) tackling complexities using simulations and analytical modelling techniques; and iii) applying optimization techniques to improve the performance of these systems. It includes twenty-four papers, which cover scientific concepts, frameworks, architectures and various other ideas on analytics, trends and applications of transportation-related data

Traffic signal detection from in-vehicle GPS speed profiles using functional data analysis and machine learning

International audienceThe increasing availability of large-scale Global Positioning System (GPS) data stemming from in-vehicle embedded terminal devices enables the design of methods deriving road network cartographic information from drivers' recorded traces. Some machine learning approaches have been proposed in the past to train automatic road network map inference, and recently this approach has been successfully extended to infer road attributes as well, such as speed limitation or number of lanes. In this paper, we address the problem of detecting traffic signals from a set of vehicle speed profiles, under a classification perspective. Each data instance is a speed versus distance plot depicting over a hundred profiles on a 100-meter-long road span. We proposed three different ways of deriving features: the first one relies on the raw speed measurements; the second one uses image recognition techniques; and the third one is based on functional data analysis. We input them into most commonly used classification algorithms and a comparative analysis demonstrated that a functional description of speed profiles with wavelet transforms seems to outperform the other approaches with most of the tested classifiers. It also highlighted that Random Forests yield an accurate detection of traffic signals, regardless of the chosen feature extraction method, while keeping a remarkably low confusion rate with stop signs

Computationally intensive, distributed and decentralised machine learning: from theory to applications

Machine learning (ML) is currently one of the most important research fields, spanning computer science, statistics, pattern recognition, data mining, and predictive analytics. It plays a central role in automatic data processing and analysis in numerous research domains owing to widely distributed and geographically scattered data sources, powerful computing clouds, and high digitisation requirements. However, aspects such as the accuracy of methods, data privacy, and model explainability remain challenging and require additional research. Therefore, it is necessary to analyse centralised and distributed data processing architectures, and to create novel computationally intensive explainable and privacy-preserving ML methods, to investigate their properties, to propose distributed versions of prospective ML baseline methods, and to evaluate and apply these in various applications. This thesis addresses the theoretical and practical aspects of state-of-the-art ML methods. The contributions of this thesis are threefold. In Chapter 2, novel non-distributed, centralised, computationally intensive ML methods are proposed, their properties are investigated, and state-of-the-art ML methods are applied to real-world data from two domains, namely transportation and bioinformatics. Moreover, algorithms for ‘black-box’ model interpretability are presented. Decentralised ML methods are considered in Chapter 3. First, we investigate data processing as a preliminary step in data-driven, agent-based decision-making. Thereafter, we propose novel decentralised ML algorithms that are based on the collaboration of the local models of agents. Within this context, we consider various regression models. Finally, the explainability of multiagent decision-making is addressed. In Chapter 4, we investigate distributed centralised ML methods. We propose a distributed parallelisation algorithm for the semi-parametric and non-parametric regression types, and implement these in the computational environment and data structures of Apache SPARK. Scalability, speed-up, and goodness-of-fit experiments using real-world data demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed methods. Moreover, the federated deep-learning approach enables us to address the data privacy challenges caused by processing of distributed private data sources to solve the travel-time prediction problem. Finally, we propose an explainability strategy to interpret the influence of the input variables on this federated deep-learning application. This thesis is based on the contribution made by 11 papers to the theoretical and practical aspects of state-of-the-art and proposed ML methods. We successfully address the stated challenges with various data processing architectures, validate the proposed approaches in diverse scenarios from the transportation and bioinformatics domains, and demonstrate their effectiveness in scalability, speed-up, and goodness-of-fit experiments with real-world data. However, substantial future research is required to address the stated challenges and to identify novel issues in ML. Thus, it is necessary to advance the theoretical part by creating novel ML methods and investigating their properties, as well as to contribute to the application part by using of the state-of-the-art ML methods and their combinations, and interpreting their results for different problem setting

Interactive, multi-purpose traffic prediction platform using connected vehicles dataset

Traffic congestion is a perennial issue because of the increasing traffic demand yet limited budget for maintaining current transportation infrastructure; let alone expanding them. Many congestion management techniques require timely and accurate traffic estimation and prediction. Examples of such techniques include incident management, real-time routing, and providing accurate trip information based on historical data. In this dissertation, a speech-powered traffic prediction platform is proposed, which deploys a new deep learning algorithm for traffic prediction using Connected Vehicles (CV) data. To speed-up traffic forecasting, a Graph Convolution -- Gated Recurrent Unit (GC-GRU) architecture is proposed and analysis of its performance on tabular data is compared to state-of-the-art models. GC-GRU's Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was very close to Transformer (3.16 vs 3.12) while achieving the fastest inference time and a six-fold faster training time than Transformer, although Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM) was the fastest in training. Such improved performance in traffic prediction with a shorter inference time and competitive training time allows the proposed architecture to better cater to real-time applications. This is the first study to demonstrate the advantage of using multiscale approach by combining CV data with conventional sources such as Waze and probe data. CV data was better at detecting short duration, Jam and stand-still incidents and detected them earlier as compared to probe. CV data excelled at detecting minor incidents with a 90 percent detection rate versus 20 percent for probes and detecting them 3 minutes faster. To process the big CV data faster, a new algorithm is proposed to extract the spatial and temporal features from the CSV files into a Multiscale Data Analysis (MDA). The algorithm also leverages Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) using the Nvidia Rapids framework and Dask parallel cluster in Python. The results show a seventy-fold speedup in the data Extract, Transform, Load (ETL) of the CV data for the State of Missouri of an entire day for all the unique CV journeys (reducing the processing time from about 48 hours to 25 minutes). The processed data is then fed into a customized UNet model that learns highlevel traffic features from network-level images to predict large-scale, multi-route, speed and volume of CVs. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed model are evaluated by taking different road types, times of day and image snippets of the developed model and comparable benchmarks. To visually analyze the historical traffic data and the results of the prediction model, an interactive web application powered by speech queries is built to offer accurate and fast insights of traffic performance, and thus, allow for better positioning of traffic control strategies. The product of this dissertation can be seamlessly deployed by transportation authorities to understand and manage congestions in a timely manner.Includes bibliographical references

Ant Colony Optimization

Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is the best example of how studies aimed at understanding and modeling the behavior of ants and other social insects can provide inspiration for the development of computational algorithms for the solution of difficult mathematical problems. Introduced by Marco Dorigo in his PhD thesis (1992) and initially applied to the travelling salesman problem, the ACO field has experienced a tremendous growth, standing today as an important nature-inspired stochastic metaheuristic for hard optimization problems. This book presents state-of-the-art ACO methods and is divided into two parts: (I) Techniques, which includes parallel implementations, and (II) Applications, where recent contributions of ACO to diverse fields, such as traffic congestion and control, structural optimization, manufacturing, and genomics are presented