Improving adaptation and interpretability of a short-term traffic forecasting system

Traffic management is being more important than ever, especially in overcrowded big cities with over-pollution problems and with new unprecedented mobility changes. In this scenario, road-traffic prediction plays a key role within Intelligent Transportation Systems, allowing traffic managers to be able to anticipate and take the proper decisions. This paper aims to analyse the situation in a commercial real-time prediction system with its current problems and limitations. The analysis unveils the trade-off between simple parsimonious models and more complex models. Finally, we propose an enriched machine learning framework, Adarules, for the traffic prediction in real-time facing the problem as continuously incoming data streams with all the commonly occurring problems in such volatile scenario, namely changes in the network infrastructure and demand, new detection stations or failure ones, among others. The framework is also able to infer automatically the most relevant features to our end-task, including the relationships within the road network. Although the intention with the proposed framework is to evolve and grow with new incoming big data, however there is no limitation in starting to use it without any prior knowledge as it can starts learning the structure and parameters automatically from data. We test this predictive system in different real-work scenarios, and evaluate its performance integrating a multi-task learning paradigm for the sake of the traffic prediction task.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Learning sound representations using trainable COPE feature extractors

Sound analysis research has mainly been focused on speech and music processing. The deployed methodologies are not suitable for analysis of sounds with varying background noise, in many cases with very low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). In this paper, we present a method for the detection of patterns of interest in audio signals. We propose novel trainable feature extractors, which we call COPE (Combination of Peaks of Energy). The structure of a COPE feature extractor is determined using a single prototype sound pattern in an automatic configuration process, which is a type of representation learning. We construct a set of COPE feature extractors, configured on a number of training patterns. Then we take their responses to build feature vectors that we use in combination with a classifier to detect and classify patterns of interest in audio signals. We carried out experiments on four public data sets: MIVIA audio events, MIVIA road events, ESC-10 and TU Dortmund data sets. The results that we achieved (recognition rate equal to 91.71% on the MIVIA audio events, 94% on the MIVIA road events, 81.25% on the ESC-10 and 94.27% on the TU Dortmund) demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and are higher than the ones obtained by other existing approaches. The COPE feature extractors have high robustness to variations of SNR. Real-time performance is achieved even when the value of a large number of features is computed.Comment: Accepted for publication in Pattern Recognitio

A Fuzzy-Logic Approach to Dynamic Bayesian Severity Level Classification of Driver Distraction Using Image Recognition

open access articleDetecting and classifying driver distractions is crucial in the prevention of road accidents. These distractions impact both driver behavior and vehicle dynamics. Knowing the degree of driver distraction can aid in accident prevention techniques, including transitioning of control to a level 4 semi- autonomous vehicle, when a high distraction severity level is reached. Thus, enhancement of Advanced Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS) is a critical component in the safety of vehicle drivers and other road users. In this paper, a new methodology is introduced, using an expert knowledge rule system to predict the severity of distraction in a contiguous set of video frames using the Naturalistic Driving American University of Cairo (AUC) Distraction Dataset. A multi-class distraction system comprises the face orientation, drivers’ activities, hands and previous driver distraction, a severity classification model is developed as a discrete dynamic Bayesian (DDB). Furthermore, a Mamdani-based fuzzy system was implemented to detect multi- class of distractions into a severity level of safe, careless or dangerous driving. Thus, if a high level of severity is reached the semi-autonomous vehicle will take control. The result further shows that some instances of driver’s distraction may quickly transition from a careless to dangerous driving in a multi-class distraction context