326,437 research outputs found

    Income Distribution and Poverty in the Republic of Haiti

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    After decades of stagnation and economic decline coupled with political upheavals, the Republic of Haiti is today the poorest nation in the Western Hemisphere and one of the poorest in the world. The present research reveals that this country is also where income is worst distributed in the most unequal region of the world, viz., Latin America and the Carribbean. We use the 2001 Haiti Living Conditions Survey for distributive analysis and poverty assessment to try to make manifest the potential links between household well-being and individual socio-economic characteristics. One particular finding is that access to land does not help the poor escape poverty. Complementary to the inequality and poverty profiles constructed herein, a relatively new methodology using weighted least squares for complex survey is adopted to additively decompose inequality by multiple factor components. Also, we estimate a polychotomous ordered logic to investigate the risk of being indigent or poor.Republic of Haiti, inequality, multiple factor components decomposition, poverty, stochastic dominance

    Risk factors and indicators for engagement in violent extremism

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    Research on terrorism is increasingly empirical and a number of significant advancements have been made. One such evolution is the emergent understanding of risk factors and indicators for engagement in violent extremism. Beyond contributing to academic knowledge, this has important real-world implications. Notably, the development of terrorism risk assessment tools, as well as behavioural threat assessment in counterterrorism. This thesis makes a unique contribution to the literature in two key ways. First, there is a general consensus that no single, stable profile of a terrorist exists. Relying on profiles of static risk factors to inform judgements of risk and/or threat may therefore be problematic, particularly given the observed multi- and equi-finality. One way forward may be to identify configurations of risk factors and tie these to the theorised causal mechanisms they speak to. Second, there has been little attempt to measure the prevalence of potential risk factors for violent extremism in a general population, i.e. base rates. Establishing general population base rates will help develop more scientifically rigorous putative risk factors, increase transparency in the provision of evidence, minimise potential bias in decision-making, improve risk communication, and allow for risk assessments based on Bayesian principles. This thesis consists of four empirical chapters. First, I inductively disaggregate dynamic person-exposure patterns (PEPs) of risk factors in 125 cases of lone-actor terrorism. Further analysis articulates four configurations of individual-level susceptibilities which interact differentially with situational, and exposure factors. The PEP typology ties patterns of risk factors to theorised causal mechanisms specified by a previously designed Risk Analysis Framework (RAF). This may be more stable grounds for risk assessment however than relying on the presence or absence of single factors. However, with no knowledge of base rates, the relevance of seemingly pertinent risk factors remains unclear. However, how to develop base rates is of equal concern. Hence, second, I develop the Base Rate Survey and compare two survey questioning designs, direct questioning and the Unmatched Count Technique (UCT). Under the conditions described, direct questioning yields the most appropriate estimates. Third, I compare the base rates generated via direct questioning to those observed across a sample of lone-actor terrorists. Lone-actor terrorists demonstrated more propensity, situational, and exposure risk factors, suggesting these offenders may differ from the general population in measurable ways. Finally, moving beyond examining the prevalence rates of single factors, I collect a second sample in order to model the relations among these risk factors as a complex, dynamic system. To do so, the Base Rate Survey: UK is distributed to a representative sample of 1,500 participants from the UK. I introduce psychometric network modelling to terrorism studies which visualises the interactions among risk factors as a complex system via network graphs

    ATN classification and clinical progression in subjective cognitive decline

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    Objective: To investigate the relationship between the ATN classification system (amyloid, tau, neurodegeneration) and risk of dementia and cognitive decline in individuals with subjective cognitive decline (SCD). / Methods: We classified 693 participants with SCD (60 ± 9 years, 41% women, Mini-Mental State Examination score 28 ± 2) from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort and Subjective Cognitive Impairment Cohort (SCIENCe) project according to the ATN model, as determined by amyloid PET or CSF ÎČ-amyloid (A), CSF p-tau (T), and MRI-based medial temporal lobe atrophy (N). All underwent extensive neuropsychological assessment. For 342 participants, follow-up was available (3 ± 2 years). As a control population, we included 124 participants without SCD. / Results: Fifty-six (n = 385) participants had normal Alzheimer disease (AD) biomarkers (A–T–N–), 27% (n = 186) had non-AD pathologic change (A–T–N+, A–T+N–, A–T+N+), 18% (n = 122) fell within the Alzheimer continuum (A+T–N–, A+T–N+, A+T+N–, A+T+N+). ATN profiles were unevenly distributed, with A–T+N+, A+T–N+, and A+T+N+ containing very few participants. Cox regression showed that compared to A–T–N–, participants in A+ profiles had a higher risk of dementia with a dose–response pattern for number of biomarkers affected. Linear mixed models showed participants in A+ profiles showed a steeper decline on tests addressing memory, attention, language, and executive functions. In the control group, there was no association between ATN and cognition. / Conclusions: Among individuals presenting with SCD at a memory clinic, those with a biomarker profile A–T+N+, A+T–N–, A+T+N–, and A+T+N+ were at increased risk of dementia, and showed steeper cognitive decline compared to A–T–N– individuals. These results suggest a future where biomarker results could be used for individualized risk profiling in cognitively normal individuals presenting at a memory clinic

    Assessment of the risk due to release of carbon fiber in civil aircraft accidents, phase 2

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    The risk associated with the potential use of carbon fiber composite material in commercial jet aircraft is investigated. A simulation model developed to generate risk profiles for several airports is described. The risk profiles show the probability that the cost due to accidents in any year exceeds a given amount. The computer model simulates aircraft accidents with fire, release of fibers, their downwind transport and infiltration of buildings, equipment failures, and resulting ecomomic impact. The individual airport results were combined to yield the national risk profile

    A looming revolution: Implications of self-generation for the risk exposure of retailers. ESRI WP597, September 2018

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    Managing the risk associated with uncertain load has always been a challenge for retailers in electricity markets. Yet the load variability has been largely predictable in the past, especially when aggregating a large number of consumers. In contrast, the increasing penetration of unpredictable, small-scale electricity generation by consumers, i.e. self-generation, constitutes a new and yet greater volume risk. Using value-at-risk metrics and Monte Carlo simulations based on German historical loads and prices, the contribution of decentralized solar PV self-generation to retailers’ load and revenue risks is assessed. This analysis has implications for the consumers’ welfare and the overall efficiency of electricity markets

    Personalized medicine—a modern approach for the diagnosis and management of hypertension

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    The main goal of treating hypertension is to reduce blood pressure to physiological levels and thereby prevent risk of cardiovascular disease and hypertension-associated target organ damage. Despite reductions in major risk factors and the availability of a plethora of effective antihypertensive drugs, the control of blood pressure to target values is still poor due to multiple factors including apparent drug resistance and lack of adherence. An explanation for this problem is related to the current reductionist and ‘trial-and-error’ approach in the management of hypertension, as we may oversimplify the complex nature of the disease and not pay enough attention to the heterogeneity of the pathophysiology and clinical presentation of the disorder. Taking into account specific risk factors, genetic phenotype, pharmacokinetic characteristics, and other particular features unique to each patient, would allow a personalized approach to managing the disease. Personalized medicine therefore represents the tailoring of medical approach and treatment to the individual characteristics of each patient and is expected to become the paradigm of future healthcare. The advancement of systems biology research and the rapid development of high-throughput technologies, as well as the characterization of different –omics, have contributed to a shift in modern biological and medical research from traditional hypothesis-driven designs toward data-driven studies and have facilitated the evolution of personalized or precision medicine for chronic diseases such as hypertension
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