Mining large-scale human mobility data for long-term crime prediction

Traditional crime prediction models based on census data are limited, as they fail to capture the complexity and dynamics of human activity. With the rise of ubiquitous computing, there is the opportunity to improve such models with data that make for better proxies of human presence in cities. In this paper, we leverage large human mobility data to craft an extensive set of features for crime prediction, as informed by theories in criminology and urban studies. We employ averaging and boosting ensemble techniques from machine learning, to investigate their power in predicting yearly counts for different types of crimes occurring in New York City at census tract level. Our study shows that spatial and spatio-temporal features derived from Foursquare venues and checkins, subway rides, and taxi rides, improve the baseline models relying on census and POI data. The proposed models achieve absolute R^2 metrics of up to 65% (on a geographical out-of-sample test set) and up to 89% (on a temporal out-of-sample test set). This proves that, next to the residential population of an area, the ambient population there is strongly predictive of the area's crime levels. We deep-dive into the main crime categories, and find that the predictive gain of the human dynamics features varies across crime types: such features bring the biggest boost in case of grand larcenies, whereas assaults are already well predicted by the census features. Furthermore, we identify and discuss top predictive features for the main crime categories. These results offer valuable insights for those responsible for urban policy or law enforcement

Urban Informatics

This open access book is the first to systematically introduce the principles of urban informatics and its application to every aspect of the city that involves its functioning, control, management, and future planning. It introduces new models and tools being developed to understand and implement these technologies that enable cities to function more efficiently – to become ‘smart’ and ‘sustainable’. The smart city has quickly emerged as computers have become ever smaller to the point where they can be embedded into the very fabric of the city, as well as being central to new ways in which the population can communicate and act. When cities are wired in this way, they have the potential to become sentient and responsive, generating massive streams of ‘big’ data in real time as well as providing immense opportunities for extracting new forms of urban data through crowdsourcing. This book offers a comprehensive review of the methods that form the core of urban informatics from various kinds of urban remote sensing to new approaches to machine learning and statistical modelling. It provides a detailed technical introduction to the wide array of tools information scientists need to develop the key urban analytics that are fundamental to learning about the smart city, and it outlines ways in which these tools can be used to inform design and policy so that cities can become more efficient with a greater concern for environment and equity

Urban Informatics

This open access book is the first to systematically introduce the principles of urban informatics and its application to every aspect of the city that involves its functioning, control, management, and future planning. It introduces new models and tools being developed to understand and implement these technologies that enable cities to function more efficiently – to become ‘smart’ and ‘sustainable’. The smart city has quickly emerged as computers have become ever smaller to the point where they can be embedded into the very fabric of the city, as well as being central to new ways in which the population can communicate and act. When cities are wired in this way, they have the potential to become sentient and responsive, generating massive streams of ‘big’ data in real time as well as providing immense opportunities for extracting new forms of urban data through crowdsourcing. This book offers a comprehensive review of the methods that form the core of urban informatics from various kinds of urban remote sensing to new approaches to machine learning and statistical modelling. It provides a detailed technical introduction to the wide array of tools information scientists need to develop the key urban analytics that are fundamental to learning about the smart city, and it outlines ways in which these tools can be used to inform design and policy so that cities can become more efficient with a greater concern for environment and equity

Urban Anomaly Analytics: Description, Detection, and Prediction

Urban anomalies may result in loss of life or property if not handled properly. Automatically alerting anomalies in their early stage or even predicting anomalies before happening is of great value for populations. Recently, data-driven urban anomaly analysis frameworks have been forming, which utilize urban big data and machine learning algorithms to detect and predict urban anomalies automatically. In this survey, we make a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art research on urban anomaly analytics. We first give an overview of four main types of urban anomalies, traffic anomaly, unexpected crowds, environment anomaly, and individual anomaly. Next, we summarize various types of urban datasets obtained from diverse devices, i.e., trajectory, trip records, CDRs, urban sensors, event records, environment data, social media and surveillance cameras. Subsequently, a comprehensive survey of issues on detecting and predicting techniques for urban anomalies is presented. Finally, research challenges and open problems as discussed.Peer reviewe

Urban Informatics

This open access book is the first to systematically introduce the principles of urban informatics and its application to every aspect of the city that involves its functioning, control, management, and future planning. It introduces new models and tools being developed to understand and implement these technologies that enable cities to function more efficiently – to become ‘smart’ and ‘sustainable’. The smart city has quickly emerged as computers have become ever smaller to the point where they can be embedded into the very fabric of the city, as well as being central to new ways in which the population can communicate and act. When cities are wired in this way, they have the potential to become sentient and responsive, generating massive streams of ‘big’ data in real time as well as providing immense opportunities for extracting new forms of urban data through crowdsourcing. This book offers a comprehensive review of the methods that form the core of urban informatics from various kinds of urban remote sensing to new approaches to machine learning and statistical modelling. It provides a detailed technical introduction to the wide array of tools information scientists need to develop the key urban analytics that are fundamental to learning about the smart city, and it outlines ways in which these tools can be used to inform design and policy so that cities can become more efficient with a greater concern for environment and equity

Classification algorithms for Big Data with applications in the urban security domain

A classification algorithm is a versatile tool, that can serve as a predictor for the future or as an analytical tool to understand the past. Several obstacles prevent classification from scaling to a large Volume, Velocity, Variety or Value. The aim of this thesis is to scale distributed classification algorithms beyond current limits, assess the state-of-practice of Big Data machine learning frameworks and validate the effectiveness of a data science process in improving urban safety. We found in massive datasets with a number of large-domain categorical features a difficult challenge for existing classification algorithms. We propose associative classification as a possible answer, and develop several novel techniques to distribute the training of an associative classifier among parallel workers and improve the final quality of the model. The experiments, run on a real large-scale dataset with more than 4 billion records, confirmed the quality of the approach. To assess the state-of-practice of Big Data machine learning frameworks and streamline the process of integration and fine-tuning of the building blocks, we developed a generic, self-tuning tool to extract knowledge from network traffic measurements. The result is a system that offers human-readable models of the data with minimal user intervention, validated by experiments on large collections of real-world passive network measurements. A good portion of this dissertation is dedicated to the study of a data science process to improve urban safety. First, we shed some light on the feasibility of a system to monitor social messages from a city for emergency relief. We then propose a methodology to mine temporal patterns in social issues, like crimes. Finally, we propose a system to integrate the findings of Data Science on the citizenry’s perception of safety and communicate its results to decision makers in a timely manner. We applied and tested the system in a real Smart City scenario, set in Turin, Italy

A COMPREHENSIVE GEOSPATIAL KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY FRAMEWORK FOR SPATIAL ASSOCIATION RULE MINING

Continuous advances in modern data collection techniques help spatial scientists gain access to massive and high-resolution spatial and spatio-temporal data. Thus there is an urgent need to develop effective and efficient methods seeking to find unknown and useful information embedded in big-data datasets of unprecedentedly large size (e.g., millions of observations), high dimensionality (e.g., hundreds of variables), and complexity (e.g., heterogeneous data sources, space–time dynamics, multivariate connections, explicit and implicit spatial relations and interactions). Responding to this line of development, this research focuses on the utilization of the association rule (AR) mining technique for a geospatial knowledge discovery process. Prior attempts have sidestepped the complexity of the spatial dependence structure embedded in the studied phenomenon. Thus, adopting association rule mining in spatial analysis is rather problematic. Interestingly, a very similar predicament afflicts spatial regression analysis with a spatial weight matrix that would be assigned a priori, without validation on the specific domain of application. Besides, a dependable geospatial knowledge discovery process necessitates algorithms supporting automatic and robust but accurate procedures for the evaluation of mined results. Surprisingly, this has received little attention in the context of spatial association rule mining. To remedy the existing deficiencies mentioned above, the foremost goal for this research is to construct a comprehensive geospatial knowledge discovery framework using spatial association rule mining for the detection of spatial patterns embedded in geospatial databases and to demonstrate its application within the domain of crime analysis. It is the first attempt at delivering a complete geo-spatial knowledge discovery framework using spatial association rule mining

Rural Crime and Community Safety

Crime is often perceived as an urban issue rather than a problem that occurs in rural areas, but how far is this view tenable? This book explores the relationship between crime and community in rural areas and addresses the notion of safety as part of the community dynamics in such areas. Rural Crime and Community Safety makes a significant contribution to crime science and integrates a range of theories to understand patterns of crime and perceived safety in rural contexts. Based on a wealth of original research, Ceccato combines spatial methods with qualitative analysis to examine, in detail, farm and wildlife crime, youth related crimes and gendered violence in rural settings. Making the most of the expanding field of Criminology and of the growing professional inquiry into crime and crime prevention in rural areas; rural development; and the social sustainability of rural areas, this book builds a bridge by connecting Criminology and Human Geography. This book will be suitable for academics, students and practitioners in the fields of criminology, community safety, rural studies, rural development and gender studies

Domestic Stalking, Violation of Protective Orders, and Homicide in Chicago: The Influence of Social Disorganization and Gender Inequality

Domestic violence has been considered a serious issue for many decades. This problem manifests itself physically, sexually, and emotionally and can affect anyone. However, most of the domestic violence literature focuses specifically on physical intimate partner violence. Various theoretical frameworks have been utilized to explain the occurrence of domestic violence including social disorganization theory and gender inequality. These explanations are limited, however, with the former primarily extended to physical assault and the latter focusing on violence against women. This study is important as it extends our knowledge of how these two perspectives can be applied to domestic violence through the analysis of domestic stalking, violation of protective orders, and homicide at a structural level. Incident data for these crimes that occurred in 2016 were obtained from the Chicago data portal and demographic data were obtained from the 2016 American Community Survey\u27s 5-year estimates. Univariate, multivariate, and spatial analyses were conducted at the census tract level to determine the associations between the two theoretical frameworks and each crime. Statistical results indicate that social disorganization theory and gender inequality can partially explain the occurrence of domestic stalking, violation of protective orders, and homicide. Concentrated disadvantage was one of the most consistent predictors of domestic violence, but the direction of the relationship varied across models. There were significant gender inequality factors, but the directions also varied. Spatial results demonstrate clustering of the crimes in areas characterized by increased social disorganization as well as areas possessive of certain indicators of gender inequality. This study is unique as it employed both social disorganization and gender inequality frameworks at a structural level, employed various spatial analysis and mapping techniques, and it analyzed understudied acts of domestic violence to set precedent and open doors for future inquiry