The NBA, Exit Discrimination, and Career Earnings

The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, it complements the many wage discrimination studies by examining exit discrimination in the NBA using a decade's worth of data (the 1980's). White players have a 36% lower risk of being cut than black players, ceteris paribus, translating into an expected career length of 7.5 seasons for an apparently similar player who is white, and 5.5 seasons for the same player who is black. Second, the career earnings effect of exit discrimination in the 1980's is larger ($808,000) than the career earnings effect of wage discrimination ($329,000). Third, our data are consistent with the hypothesis that customer racial discrimination is the reason for the observed exit discrimination.discrimination; labor economics; career earnings; basketball; survival analysis

Risk Analysis in Geotechnical and Earthquake Engineering, State-of-the-Art Practice of Embankment Dams

Despite a proliferation of papers on quantitative risk analysis for dams during the past twenty years, risk analysis has not found widespread application in dam safety practice. Recent experience suggests that, despite a great deal of enthusiasm in the 1990’s, the professional opinion concerning the usefulness of risk analysis in dam safety practice is almost as divided now as it was in the early 1980’s. This paper presents an account of the history and development of risk analysis ln dam safety practice in the field of geotechnical earthquake engineering since its inception in the early 1960’s to September 2000. Against this background, and with regard to the discussion of the State-of-the-Art/Practice, the paper describes the latest attempts to quantify risk associated with earth dams for two failure modes, seismically induced liquefaction and a proposed procedure for seismically induced non-liquefaction deformation failure. To overcome the difficulties in reporting a complete risk analysis, the case study in Part II is presented in a way that will enable the profession to obtain an initial appreciation of what is involved in quantified risk analysis for dams. Concerning the State-of-the-Art/Practice, the paper presents background to what are essentially proposed practices as there is as yet no broadly accepted standard of practice for defensible analysis of risk associated with large dams

"Aggregate Risk in Japanese Equity Markets"

In the past decade Japanese households have been buffeted by some big aggregate shocks. Economic growth has slowed, unemployment risk has risen, and asset prices have fallen to levels not seen since the early 1980's. These shocks have hit both households' financial and human capital. This paper develops a framework for identifying the sources of these shocks and a way to measure how household assessments of these risks vary over time. We consider the perspective of a forward-looking risk-averse household and derive expected returns and time-varying risk premia for each risk factor. We then construct times-series of historical expected risk premia using Japanese data on industry returns. An analysis of this data provides four main findings. First, prior to 1984 expected risk premia on identified goods market shocks, monetary policy and financial market risk are all important determinants of industry level expected returns. Second, starting in 1984 households perceive that the risk from financial shocks is increasing and demand higher risk premia to hold this risk. Third, between 1987 and 1990 risk premia on monetary policy are large and positive. Monetary policy is perceived to be adding to financial risk. Fourth, in 1990 as expected risk premia on financial risk shoot up, expected risk premia on monetary policy shocks turn negative for all industry returns. As stock prices collapse between 1990 and 1995, monetary policy shocks play an important role in hedging risk emanating from the financial sector.

U.S. International Capital Flows: Perspectives From Rational Maximizing Models

This paper examines several aspects of the debate about the causes of the U.S. current account deficit in the 1980's. It surveys several popular explanations before developing two theoretical models of international capital flows. The first model is Ricardian, and it extends the analysis of Stockman and Svensson (1987): The second model is an overlapping generations framework. The major difference in predictions of these two models involves the effects of government budget deficits on the exchange rate and the current account. An update of the empirical investigation of Evans (1986) suggests that his VAR methodology is completely uninformative with additional data. Some empirical results on the importance of risk aversion in modeling international capital market equilibrium are also presented.

The Cosmos and the Earth: Content and Quality of Environmental Risk Communication in Cosmos (1980) and Cosmos (2014)

Cosmos: A Personal Voyage (1980) and the remake Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey (2014) have sparked widespread public interest in science and educated viewers about science. Both series cover many scientific topics, including the environment. Because of their large viewership, the series have the potential to influence public awareness about environmental issues, and by using best practices, Cosmos could also potentially incite action to mitigate environmental risk. This study posed two research questions: (1) Do the topics and themes related to environmental risk differ between the two Cosmos series? If so, in what way(s)? (2) How do the environmental risk communication strategies used in the two Cosmos series compare to best practices for inspiring appropriate action among viewers? This study used content analysis to determine differences between the two Cosmos series in the topics, frames, approaches, images, and visual language, such as metaphors. There was an overall increase in environmental risk content from Cosmos (1980) to Cosmos (2014). The most mentioned environmental topics in Cosmos (1980) were “Pollution,” “Nuclear,” “Climate Change,” and “Greenhouse Gas/CO2”; in Cosmos (2014) they were “Energy,” “Pollution,” “Greenhouse Gas/CO2,” and “Climate Change.” In Cosmos (2014), “Climate Change/Global Warming,” “Greenhouse Gas/CO2,” and “Energy” often appeared together, solidifying the association between these topics. Additionally, framing of content shifted from “Disaster” and “Security” in Cosmos (1980) to “Opportunity” Cosmos (2014). Both series used similar approaches; however, Cosmos (1980) more often used the approach of “Presenting a negative alternative reality/Warning” whereas Cosmos (2014) used more “Storytelling.” Both Cosmos series relied heavily on visual images and comparative language, such as analogies and metaphors. Cosmos (2014) more often used strategies recommended by scholars as being effective for inciting environmental action than Cosmos (1980). Specifically this was evident in the increase in environmental risk content, narratives, “Health” and “Opportunity” frames, and associations between related topics as well as the decrease in “Disaster” frames and “Presenting a negative alternative reality/Warning,” Although differences exist between the series, they both seem to communicate environmental risk in ways that are interesting and relevant to the public

Mortgage, Treasury, CD and Fed Funds Rates Spreads and Risk Premiums: How do They Impact Net Interest Margins?

This paper utilized FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to examine historical risk premiums between 30-year mortgages and 30-year T-Bonds and spreads between yields on these two assets and funding costs represented by 6-month CD rates and fed funds rates. Risk premiums were greatest and spreads were smallest (some-times negative) during the high interest rate environment during the late 1970’s and early 1980’s. Risk premiums got smaller after the two financial crises of the 2000’s (the September 11, 2001 attack and the 2008 mortgage crisis) and the spreads became larger after both when the Federal Reserve cut rates tremendously. Despite these variations in income/cost spreads, net interest margins (to both total assets and earning assets) remained relatively stable. Regression analysis shows the best predictor of historical net interest margins was the 30-year treasury yield in lagged and non-lagged models. These results suggest the ability of banks to choose fund sources and fund uses allows them to reduce variation in net interest margins even while interest rates are volatile

Disasters and Loss of Life: NewEvidence on the Effect of Disaster Risk Management Governance in Latin America and the Caribbean

This study provides new empirical evidence on the effect of improving the conditions in disaster risk management (DRM) governance in terms of human losses resulting from disaster events. To measure governance in disaster risk management, we use the Index of Governance and Public Policy in Disaster Risk Management (IGOPP), developed by the Inter-American Development Bank, which characterizes the development of regulatory, institutional and budgetary processes for disaster risk management at the national level. This analysis uses regression models of count data for 26 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean for the 1980- 2017 period. We show that an improvement in disaster risk management governance leads to a significant reduction in the probability of human losses caused by disasters triggered by natural hazards. Specifically, an additional point in the IGOPP is associated with a 3% reduction of the fatalities caused by disasters. In addition, we find that a categorical improvement from low to good disaster risk management governance conditions yields savings, in term s of avoided human fatalities, in the order of US$ 381- 670 million per year and reduces the probability of fatality occurrence in 11 percentage points. These results suggest that the creation of conditions to improve disaster risk management governance is a crucial element not only to reverse the negative impact of the underlying causes of social vulnerability, such as deficiencies in the economic system and weak institutional capacity, but also a cost-effective strategy to reduce risk

Understanding suicide: a psychobiographical study of Ian Kevin Curtis

Psychobiography can be viewed as the re-writing of an individual‟s life story previously undetected. In general, it consists of a combination of two central elements: biography and psychological theory, which aim to explain the particular individual‟s psychological development. This particular study serves to explore the extraordinary life of renowned singer and songwriter, Ian Kevin Curtis (1956-1980), who died by suicide at the early age of 23. The basis for this investigation will take the form of notable biographical accounts of the subject‟s life, together with the application of Thomas Joiner‟s (2005) interpersonal-psychological theory of suicide which identifies factors that lead to suicidal ideation - in an attempt to understand the psychological circumstances that contributed to Curtis‟s suicide. In doing so, Adler‟s (1929) theory of Individual Psychology was applied to the life of Curtis in an attempt to build on Joiner‟s theory. This led to the concept of control being introduced and contributed to the development of an intake form to identify those at risk for suicide. It is hoped that exploring the psychological circumstances that contributed to Curtis‟s suicide and their interpretation by the subject will bring about an understanding of the risk factors that may induce suicide and, by extension, will highlight the relevance of this psychobiographical study as a tool for investigating and promoting preventative measures concerning suicide. The psychobiographical data collection and analysis for this research thesis will be guided by Yin‟s (2003) theory of „analytic generalisation‟ which uses a theoretical framework in selecting relevant data which develops a matrix as a descriptive framework for organising and integrating that data, and Alexander‟s (1988) analytical model which focuses on lifting out themes through principal identifiers of salience

A systematic review of the risk factors for cervical artery dissection

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Cervical artery dissection (CAD) is a recognized cause of ischemic stroke among young and middle-aged individuals. The pathogenesis of dissections is unknown, although numerous constitutional and environmental risk factors have been postulated. To better understand the quality and nature of the research on the pathogenesis of CAD, we performed a systematic review of its risk factors. METHODS: PubMed [MEDLINE (1966 to February 22, 2005)] and Embase (1980 to February 22, 2005) were searched to identify studies fulfilling the inclusion criteria. Two reviewers independently assessed methodological quality of the primary studies. Relevant data were extracted, including the risk factor(s) investigated, characteristics of the study population, and strength of the association(s). RESULTS: Thirty-one case-control studies were included for analysis. Selection bias, lack of control for confounding, and inadequate method of data analysis were the most common identified methodological shortcomings. Strong associations were reported from individual studies for the following risk factors: aortic root diameter >34 mm (odds ratio [OR=14.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.2 to 63.6), migraine (ORadj, 3.6; 95% CI, 1.5 to 8.6), relative diameter change (>11.8%) during the cardiac cycle of the common carotid artery (ORadj, 10.0; 95% CI, 1.8 to 54.2), and trivial trauma (in the form of manipulative therapy of the neck) (ORadj, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.3 to 11). A weak association was found for homocysteine (2 studies: ORcrude, unknown; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.52; ORcrude, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0 to 1.7), and recent infection (ORadj, 1.60; 95% CI, 0.67 to 3.80). Two studies had conflicting findings for low levels of alpha1-antitrypsin, with the methodologically stronger study suggesting no association with CAD. CONCLUSIONS: CAD is a multi-factorial disease. Many of the reviewed studies contained 2 or more major sources of bias commonly found in case-control studies. Only one study (of homocysteine) used healthy controls, a robust sample size, and had a low risk of biased results. The relationship between atherosclerosis and CAD has been insufficiently examine

Efectos del sistema multifondos en el Régimen de Ahorro Individual en Colombia

RESUMEN:Con el fin de analizar los posibles efectos de una reforma financiera dirigida a flexibilizar la regulación de los Fondos de Pensiones en Colombia, estedocumento evalúa los potenciales efectos de esta reforma sobre el bienestar delos agentes, aplicando el supuesto de individuos con funciones de utilidad conaversión absoluta al riesgo constante (CARA) y la Teoría de Diversificación del Portafolio. Adicionalmente se presenta un ejercicio contrafactual para estimar el valor del activo pensional si los principios de esta legislación hubiesen sido aplicados en el periodo 1980-2009. Los resultados del análisis teórico sugieren que ante un mayor valor acumulado en las cuentas de pensión, los individuos disminuyen su exposición ante el riesgo en sus portafolios. Mientras que el ejercicio contrafactual indica que la mejor decisión para los individuos habría sido invertir todo el portafolio en activos de renta variable.ABSTRACT:In order to analyze the potencial effects of a financial reform aimed to provide more flexibility to Colombian Pension Funds´ regulation, this documenttheoretically evaluates the effects of this reform over agents´ welfare, by applying the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) assumption and Modern Portfolio (Diversification) Theory. An empirical counterfactual exercise is used to estimate the value of pension personal account´s on the case that the foundations of this financial reform happen to be present between 1980 and 2009. Theoretical analysis suggests that individuals decrease their risk exposition according to an increase in the accumulated value in their personalaccounts. In contrast, counterfactual´s exercise conclusion is that the bestchoice for individuals would have been to invest the whole portfolio in variable rent assets.Sistema de pensiones, sistema multifondos, Teoríaa de Diversificación del portafolio, función de utilidad CARA.