Inequality and risk aversion in health and income: an empirical analysis using hypothetical scenarios with losses

Four kinds of distributional preferences are explored: inequality aversion in health, inequality aversion in income, risk aversion in health, and risk aversion in income. Face to face interviews of a representative sample of the general public are undertaken using hypothetical scenarios involving losses in either health or income. Whilst in health risk aversion is stronger than inequality aversion, in the income context we cannot reject that attitudes to inequality aversion and risk aversion are the same. When we compare across contexts we find that inequality aversion and risk aversion are both stronger in income than they each are in health

Risk aversion under preference uncertainty

We show that if an agent is uncertain about the precise form of his utility function, his actual relative risk aversion may depend on wealth even if he knows his utility function lies in the class of constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility functions. We illustrate the consequences of this result for asset allocation: poor agents that are uncertain about their risk aversion parameter invest less in risky assets than wealthy investors with identical risk aversion uncertainty. Keywords: Risk Aversion , Preference Uncertainty , Risk-taking , Asset Allocation JEL Classification: D81, D84, G11 This Version: November 25, 201

Time Varying Risk Aversion: An Application to Energy Hedging

Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of risk aversion that is based on the observed risk preferences of energy hedging market participants. The resulting estimates are applied to derive explicit risk aversion based optimal hedge strategies for both short and long hedgers. Out-of-sample results are also presented based on a unique approach that allows us to forecast risk aversion, thereby estimating hedge strategies that address the potential future needs of energy hedgers. We find that the risk aversion based hedges differ significantly from simpler OLS hedges. When implemented in-sample, risk aversion hedges for short hedgers outperform the OLS hedge ratio in a utility based comparison

The link between career risk aversion and unemployment duration: Evidence of nonlinear and time-depending pattern

In this study, we investigate the nexus between career risk aversion and unemployment duration based on German survey data (GSOEP). Using a direct measurement of career risk aversion, we do not find a statistically significant linear effect from risk aversion on unemployment duration. However, we find significant effects when controlling for a non-linear or time varying correlation between risk aversion and unemployment duration. Our results show that risk aversion is important when deciding when to leave unemployment. This research takes into account the high complexity involved in how risk aversion enters an individual’s decision process during a job search.unemployment, risk aversion, duration model

Time-Varying Risk Aversion and the Profitability of Carry Trades: Evidence from the Cross-Quantilogram

open access articleThis paper examines the predictive power of time-varying risk aversion over payoffs to the carry trade strategy via the cross-quantilogram methodology. Our analysis yields significant evidence of directional predictability from risk aversion to daily carry trade returns tracked by the Deutsche Bank G10 Currency Future Harvest Total Return Index. The predictive power of risk aversion is found to be stronger during periods of moderate to high risk aversion and largely concentrated on extreme fluctuations in carry trade returns. While large crashes in carry trade returns are associated with significant rises in investors’ risk aversion, we also found that booms in carry trade returns can be predicted at high quantiles of risk aversion. The results highlight the predictive role of extreme investor sentiment in currency markets and regime specific patterns in carry trade returns that can be captured via quantile-based predictive models

Correlation between Risk Aversion and Wealth distribution

Different models of capital exchange among economic agents have been proposed recently trying to explain the emergence of Pareto's wealth power law distribution. One important factor to be considered is the existence of risk aversion. In this paper we study a model where agents posses different levels of risk aversion, going from uniform to a random distribution. In all cases the risk aversion level for a given agent is constant during the simulation. While for a uniform and constant risk aversion the system self-organizes in a distribution that goes from an unfair ``one takes all'' distribution to a Gaussian one, a random risk aversion can produce distributions going from exponential to log-normal and power-law. Besides, interesting correlations between wealth and risk aversion are found.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures, submitted to Physica A, Proceedings of the VIII LAWNP, Salvador, Brazil, 200

Comparative Ross Risk Aversion in the Presence of Mean Dependent Risks

This paper studies comparative risk aversion between risk averse agents in the presence of a background risk. Although the literature covers this question extensively, our contribution differs from most of the literature in two respects. First, background risk does not need to be additive or multiplicative. Second, the two risks are not necessary mean independent, and may be conditional expectation increasing or decreasing. We show that our order of cross Ross risk aversion is equivalent to the order of partial risk premium, while our index of decreasing cross Ross risk aversion is equivalent to decreasing partial risk premium. These results generalize the comparative risk aversion model developed by Ross (1981) for mean independent risks. Finally, we show that decreasing cross Ross risk aversion gives rise to the utility function family belonging to the class of n-switch utility functions.Comparative cross Ross risk aversion, Dependent background risk, Partial risk premium, Decreasing cross Ross risk aversion, n-switch utility function

Are More Risk-Averse Agents More Optimistic? Insights from a Simple Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model

We analyze the link between pessimism and risk-aversion. We consider a model of partially revealing, competitive rational expectations equilibrium with diverse information, in which the distribution of risk-aversion across individuals is unknown. We show that when a high individual level of risk-aversion is taken as a signal for a high average level of risk-aversion, more risk-averse agents are more optimistic. This correlation between individual risk-aversion and optimism leads to a pessimistic consensus belief hence to an increase in the market price of risk. Risk-sharing schemes and welfare implications are analyzed. We show that agents' welfare may increase upon the receipt of more precise information.Optimism, risk-aversion, rational expectations, risk-premium, heterogenous beliefs

The Behavioural Components of Risk Aversion

The risk premium is affected by loss aversion and probability distortions as well as utility curvature. We introduce two variants - the total risk premium relative to objective expected value, and the subjective risk premium relative to perceived expected value. Approximate solutions for each provide analogies to the Pratt-Arrow coefficient of risk aversion (showing how risk attitude depends on each behavioural component), and sufficient conditions for risk aversion. Earlier results of Levy and Levy (2002) which examined decision weights in isolation are revised and extended to show how the curvature and loss aversion conditions are affected by probabilitydistortions

Risk Aversion in Cumulative Prospect Theory

This paper characterizes the conditions for risk aversion in cumulative prospect theory where risk aversion is defined in the strong sense (Rothshild Stiglitz 1970). Under weaker assumptions than differentiability we show that risk aversion implies convex weighting functions for gains and for losses but not necessarily a concave utility function. Also, we investigate the exact relationship between loss aversion and risk aversion. We illustrate the analysis by considering two special cases of cumulative prospect theory and show that risk aversion and convex utility may coexist.