Civilization and the evolution of short sighted agents

We model an assurance game played within a population with two types of individuals -- short-sighted and foresighted. Foresighted people have a lower discount rate than short sighted people. These phenotypes interact with each other. We define the persistent interaction of foresighted people with other foresighted people as a critical element of civilization while the interaction of short sighted people with other short sighted people as critical to the failure of civilization. We show that whether the short sighted phenotype will be an evolutionary stable strategy (and thus lead to the collapse of civilization) depends on the initial proportion of short sighted people relative to people with foresight as well as their relative discount rates. Further we explore some comparative static results that connect the probability of the game continuing and the relative size of the two discount rates to the likelihood that civilization will collapse.society; breakdown; evolution; replicator; dynamic; process; civilization; conflict; institution

An analysis of spending behaviour under liquidity constraints with an application to financial hedging

Imperial Users onl

A comprehensive multi-sector tool for analysis of Systemic Risk and Interconnectedness (SyRIN)

This paper presents the Systemic Risk and Interconnectedness (SyRIN) tool. SyRIN allows a comprehensive assessment of systemic risk via quantification of the impact of risk amplification mechanisms, due to interconnectedness structures across banks and other financial intermediaries-insurance, pension fund, hedge fund and investment fund sectors, which cannot be captured when analyzing sectors independently. The tool produces various metrics to evaluate systemic risk from complementary perspectives, including tail risk, cross-entity interconnectedness and the contribution to systemic risk by different entities and sectors. SyRIN is easily implementable with publicly available data and can be adapted to cater to different degrees of institutional granularity and data availability. The framework is designed to be a tool to identify vulnerabilities from a top-down perspective that can lead to deeper analysis in specific sectors for policy formulation

AUDITING FAIR VALUES IN A SENSITIVE SOCIO-ECONOMICAL CONTEXT

The concept of fair value was subject of many debates and disputes in recentyears. These debates have focused mainly on the relevance of the concept, but also on thepractical difficulties in determining reasonable estimates, raising particularly the interest ofpractitioners in terms of identifying the best valuation procedures and techniques,respectively auditing fair values. Determining the fair value involves a broad spectrum ofapproaches, from the simplest to the most complex and burdensome ones. In the currentsocio-economical context, market and stock volatility raises questions about fair values, evenif there are conditions for the existence of market information. The problem gets morecomplicated where fair value is determined based on cash-flows, especially where there areuncertainties about the value and timing of cash-flows and adjustment rates, and the impactof used assumptions related to future conditions, transactions and events.Last but not least, assessment of fair value is based on the going concern assumption, whichmay not be applicable in the context of an economic crisis.The International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) provide for financial instruments tobe measured generally at fair value. Because fair value is primarily assimilated with marketprice, its assessment requires the existence of a market able to operate under normalconditions, or in other words, sufficiently liquid to assess the price of financial instruments.And, one of the features of the current crisis consists in the significant decrease of liquiditieson the market, which in turn caused a high impairment of derivatives (those based onAmerican real estate). As American real estate can never be zero, market prices are not thereal ones. However, this situation highlights the volume of liquidities available to buyers,which is a feature of imperfect markets. But the International Financial Reporting Standardsdid not anticipate the effects of liquidities on financial instruments, as their development isbased on perfect functioning of financial markets. Under these circumstances, fair valuemeasurement started to be increasingly criticised, and the International AccountingStandards Board (IASB) has changed the rules for measurement of financial instruments atfair value.Given the high degree of volatility, auditors should ensure that valuation methods andassumptions used by management under normal conditions for determining fair values areappropriate in a sensitive socio-economical context as well, and that the valuation modelincludes also the effects of subsequent events.fair value, historical costs, fair value audit, volatility, economic crisis

Essays on modeling, hedging and pricing of insurance and financial products

Cette thèse est composée de trois articles abordant différentes problématiques en relation avec la modélisation, la couverture et la tarification des risques d’assurance et financiers. “A general class of distortion operators for pricing contingent claims with applications to CAT bonds” est un projet présentant une méthode générale pour dériver des opérateurs de distorsion compatibles avec la valorisation sans arbitrage. Ce travail offre également une nouvelle classe simple d’opérateurs de distorsion afin d’expliquer les primes observées dans le marché des obligations catastrophes. “Local hedging of variable annuities in the presence of basis risk” est un travail dans lequel une méthode de couverture des rentes variables en présence de risque de base est développée. La méthode de couverture proposée bénéficie d’une exposition plus élevée au risque de marché et d’une diversification temporelle du risque pour obtenir un rendement excédentaire et faciliter l’accumulation de capital. “Option pricing under regime-switching models : Novel approaches removing path-dependence” est un projet dans lequel diverses mesures neutres au risque sont construites pour les modèles à changement de régime de manière à générer des processus de prix d’option qui ne présentent pas de dépendance au chemin, en plus de satisfaire d’autres propriétés jugées intuitives et souhaitables.This thesis is composed of three papers addressing different issues in relation to the modeling, hedging and pricing of insurance and financial risks. “A general class of distortion operators for pricing contingent claims with applications to CAT bonds” is a project presenting a general method for deriving probability distortion operators consistent with arbitrage-free pricing. This work also offers a simple novel class of distortions operators for explaining catastrophe (CAT) bond spreads. “Local hedging of variable annuities in the presence of basis risk” is a work in which a method to hedge variable annuities in the presence of basis risk is developed. The proposed hedging scheme benefits from a higher exposure to equity risk and from time diversification of risk to earn excess return and facilitate the accumulation of capital. “Option pricing under regime-switching models: Novel approaches removing path-dependence” is a project in which various risk-neutral measures for hidden regime-switching models are constructed in such a way that they generate option price processes which do not exhibit path-dependence in addition to satisfy other properties deemed intuitive and desirable

Dynamic Prevention in Short Term Insurance Contracts

This paper looks at the dynamic properties of insurance contracts when insurers have better technology at preventing catastrophic losses than the insured. The prevention technology is owned by the insurers and is permanent. If long-term contracts are not possible, the insured is faced with a commitment problem since he may want to renegotiate the contract or change insurer after his initial insurer has invested in prevention. Because of this hold-up problem, we find that the investment in prevention is delayed. Le but de cet article est d'étudier les propriétés dynamiques des contrats d'assurance lorsque les assureurs détiennent une meilleure technologie de prévention des catastrophes que les assurés. Cette technologie est permanente au sens où elle ne se déprécie pas. Si les contrats de long terme ne sont pas possibles, les assurés font face à un problème d'engagement puisqu'ils voudraient renégocier le contrat ou changer d'assureur après que l'assureur initial a investi le montant optimal en prévention. À cause de ce problème de hold-up, nous montrons que l'investissement en prévention est retardé, et ce même si l'assuré demeure avec le même assureur sur tout l'horizon de fonctionnement. Nous montrons également que la dynamique des primes d'assurance diffère d'une suite de primes actuarielles.Insurance, Prevention, Commitment, Contract Theory, Moral Hazard, Assurance, Prévention, Engagement, Théorie des contrats, Aléa Moral

Accounting trends and techniques, 64th annual survey 2010 edition

https://egrove.olemiss.edu/aicpa_att/1083/thumbnail.jp

Audits of property and liability insurance companies with conforming changes as of May 1, 2003; Audit and accounting guide:

https://egrove.olemiss.edu/aicpa_indev/1572/thumbnail.jp

U.S. GAAP financial statements: 67th annual survey 2013 edition

https://egrove.olemiss.edu/aicpa_att/1093/thumbnail.jp