Standard survey methods for estimating colony losses and explanatory risk factors in Apis mellifera

This chapter addresses survey methodology and questionnaire design for the collection of data pertaining to estimation of honey bee colony loss rates and identification of risk factors for colony loss. Sources of error in surveys are described. Advantages and disadvantages of different random and non-random sampling strategies and different modes of data collection are presented to enable the researcher to make an informed choice. We discuss survey and questionnaire methodology in some detail, for the purpose of raising awareness of issues to be considered during the survey design stage in order to minimise error and bias in the results. Aspects of survey design are illustrated using surveys in Scotland. Part of a standardized questionnaire is given as a further example, developed by the COLOSS working group for Monitoring and Diagnosis. Approaches to data analysis are described, focussing on estimation of loss rates. Dutch monitoring data from 2012 were used for an example of a statistical analysis with the public domain R software. We demonstrate the estimation of the overall proportion of losses and corresponding confidence interval using a quasi-binomial model to account for extra-binomial variation. We also illustrate generalized linear model fitting when incorporating a single risk factor, and derivation of relevant confidence intervals

An integrated aerospace requirement setting and risk analysis tool for life cycle cost reduction and system design improvement

In the early conceptual stage of the service orientated model, decisions regarding the design of a new technical product are largely influenced by Service Requirements. Those decisions, therefore, have to merge both technical and business aspects to obtain desired product reliability and reduced Whole Life Cost (WLC). It is, therefore, critical at that phase to define the risk of potential noncompliance of Service Requirements in order to ensure the right design choices; as these decisions have a large impact on the overall product and service development. This paper presents outcome of research project to investigate different approaches used by companies to analyse Service Requirements to achieve reduced Life Cycle Cost (LCC). Analysis using Weibull distribution and Monte Carlo principle have been proposed here; based on the conducted literature review these are considered as the most widely used techniques in product reliability studies. Based on those techniques, a methodology and its software tool for risk evaluation of failure to deliver a new product against Service Requirements are presented in this paper. This is part of the on-going research project which, apart from analysing the gap between the current Service Requirements achievements and the design targets for a new aircraft engine, it also facilitates an optimisation of those requirements at the minimum risk of nonconformity

Software reuse issues affecting AdaNET

The AdaNet program is reviewing its long-term goals and strategies. A significant concern is whether current AdaNet plans adequately address the major strategic issues of software reuse technology. The major reuse issues of providing AdaNet services that should be addressed as part of future AdaNet development are identified and reviewed. Before significant development proceeds, a plan should be developed to resolve the aforementioned issues. This plan should also specify a detailed approach to develop AdaNet. A three phased strategy is recommended. The first phase would consist of requirements analysis and produce an AdaNet system requirements specification. It would consider the requirements of AdaNet in terms of mission needs, commercial realities, and administrative policies affecting development, and the experience of AdaNet and other projects promoting the transfer software engineering technology. Specifically, requirements analysis would be performed to better understand the requirements for AdaNet functions. The second phase would provide a detailed design of the system. The AdaNet should be designed with emphasis on the use of existing technology readily available to the AdaNet program. A number of reuse products are available upon which AdaNet could be based. This would significantly reduce the risk and cost of providing an AdaNet system. Once a design was developed, implementation would proceed in the third phase

Vulnerable Software: Product-Risk Norms and the Problem of Unauthorized Access

Unauthorized access to online information costs billions of dollars per year. Software vulnerabilities are a key. Software currently contains an unacceptable number of vulnerabilities. The standard solution notes that the typical software business strategy is to keep costs down and be the first to market even if that means the software has significant vulnerabilities. Many endorse the following remedy: make software developers liable for negligent or defective design. This remedy is unworkable. We offer an alternative based on an appeal to product-risk norms. Product-risk norms are social norms that govern the sale of products. A key feature of such norms is that they ensure that the design and manufacture of products impose only acceptable risks on buyers. Unfortunately, mass-market software sales are not governed by appropriate product-risk norms; as result, market conditions exist in which sellers profitably offer vulnerability-ridden software. This analysis entails a solution: ensure that appropriate norms exist. We contend that the best way to do so is a statute based on best practices for software development, and we define the conditions under which the statute would give rise to the desired norm. Why worry about creating the norm? Why not just legally require that software developers conform to best practices. The answer is that enforcement of legal’s requirement can be difficult, costly, and uncertain; once the norm is in place, however, buyers and software developers conform on their own initiative

SAHRA - an integrated software tool for STPA

SAHRA (STPA based Hazard and Risk Analysis) as a software tool for STAMP/STPA improves the analysis workflow by not only supporting the complete STPA process but by also offering a unique way to capture Step 1 and 2 using the visual style of mind maps. SAHRA is seamlessly integrated into the widely used UML solution Sparx Systems Enterprise Architect (EA). This integration enables synergies between design of a system and its safety analysis and thus allows to use STPA in the paradigm of safety-guided design

Real world evaluation of aspect-oriented software development : a thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Computer Science at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand

Software development has improved over the past decade with the rise in the popularity of the Object-Oriented (OO) development approach. However, software projects continue to grow in complexity and continue to have alarmingly low rates of success. Aspect-Oriented Programming (AOP) is touted to be one solution to this software development problem. It shows promise of reducing programming complexity, making software more flexible and more amenable to change. The central concept introduced by AOP is the aspect. An aspect is used to modularise crosscutting concerns in a similar fashion to the way classes modularise business concerns. A crosscutting concern cannot be modularised in approaches such as OO because the code to realise the concern must be spread throughout the module (e.g. a tracing concent is implemented by adding code to every method in a system). AOP also introduces join points, pointcuts, and advice which are used with aspects to capture crosscutting concerns so they can be localised in a modular unit. OO took approximately 20 years to become a mainstream development approach. AOP was only invented in 1997. This project considers whether AOP is ready for commercial adoption. This requires analysis of the AOP implementations available, tool support, design processes, testing tools, standards, and support infrastructure. Only when AOP is evaluated across all these criteria can it be established whether it is ready to be used in commercial projects. Moreover, if companies are to invest time and money into adopting AOP, they must be aware of the benefits and risks associated with its adoption. This project attempts to quantify the potential benefits in adopting AOP, as well as identifying areas of risk. SolNet Solutions Ltd, an Information Technology (IT) company in Wellington, New Zealand, is used in this study as a target environment for integration of aspects into a commercial development process. SolNet is in the business of delivering large scale enterprise Java applications. To assist in this process they have developed a Common Services Architecture (CSA) containing components that can be reused to reduce risk and cost to clients. However, the CSA is complicated and SolNet have identified aspects as a potential solution to decrease the complexity. Aspects were found to bring substantial improvement to the Service Layer of SolNet. applications, including substantial reductions in complexity and size. This reduces the cost and time of development, as well as the risk associated with the projects. Moreover, the CSA was used in a more consistent fashion making the system easier to understand and maintain, and several crosscutting concerns were modularised as part of a reusable aspect library which could eventually form part of their CSA. It was found that AOP is approaching commercial readiness. However, more work is needed on defining standards for aspect languages and modelling of design elements. The current solutions in this area are commercially viable, but would greatly benefit from a standardised approach. Aspect systems can be difficult to test and the effect of the weaving process on Java serialisation requires further investigation