Revisiting the conclusion instability issue in software effort estimation

Conclusion instability is the absence of observing the same effect under varying experimental conditions. Deep Neural Network (DNN) and ElasticNet software effort estimation (SEE) models were applied to two SEE datasets with the view of resolving the conclusion instability issue and assessing the suitability of ElasticNet as a viable SEE benchmark model. Results were mixed as both model types attain conclusion stability for the Kitchenham dataset whilst conclusion instability existed in the Desharnais dataset. ElasticNet was outperformed by DNN and as such it is not recommended to be used as a SEE benchmark model

International conference on software engineering and knowledge engineering: Session chair

The Thirtieth International Conference on Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering (SEKE 2018) will be held at the Hotel Pullman, San Francisco Bay, USA, from July 1 to July 3, 2018. SEKE2018 will also be dedicated in memory of Professor Lofti Zadeh, a great scholar, pioneer and leader in fuzzy sets theory and soft computing. The conference aims at bringing together experts in software engineering and knowledge engineering to discuss on relevant results in either software engineering or knowledge engineering or both. Special emphasis will be put on the transference of methods between both domains. The theme this year is soft computing in software engineering & knowledge engineering. Submission of papers and demos are both welcome

Testing the foreign aid-led growth hypothesis in West Africa

This paper assesses the foreign aid-led growth hypothesis in a panel of West African countries using panel cointegration techniques ( Pendroni Residual Cointegration Test, Error Correction Model, Johansen Fisher Panel Cointegration Test) and then on a country-by-country basis using time series cointegration techniques (Engle-Granger test, Error Correction Model , Johansen system cointegration test). The panel cointegration results indicate a long run relationship between aid and growth in the whole panel. For the individual countries, at least one test showed evidence of this long run relationship. Granger causality tests were done for the whole panel and then for each country individually to establish direction of causality between foreign aid and economic growth. There is evidence of unidirectional causality from foreign aid to economic growth, from economic growth to foreign aid and there are cases where both variables are independent. A simplified variation of the Chenery and Strout Two-Gap Model was estimated to test the impact of foreign aid and selected explanatory variables on economic growth in countries where aid was found to granger cause growth and this impact varied from country to country

Macroeconomic Stability, Governance and Growth: Empirical Lessons from the Post-Communist Transition

Using panel data for the period 1989-2006 we revisit the empirics of economic growth in the context of the post-communist transition. We pay particular attention to the mechanisms of causation and to the potential endogeneity of the macroeconomic stability indicators considered to be important in the existing literature. Carefully employing a variety of econometric techniques we consistently find that macroeconomic instability is bad for economic growth. We find some evidence that institutions of governance are important for economic growth through their influence on the macroeconomic environment. That is, good institutions are conducive to macroeconomic stability which in turn positively impacts upon economic growth. We also find, in contrast with other work, that investments in education have had a strong positive impact on growth in transition while other 'standard' economic growth determinants remain less important. These findings are shown to be robust to a variety of econometric approaches, specifications and time spans

Investment and Instability

Although recent research has repeatedly found a negative association between investment and political instability, the existence and direction of causality between these two variables has not yet been investigated. This paper empirically tests for a causal and negative long-run relationship between political instability to investment. It finds that there is a robust causal relation from instability to investment, and that it is positive. In other words, an increase in political instability Granger causes an increase in investment. We identify three different theories that can explain this result.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39721/3/wp337.pd

Business Success and Failure Prediction Software - BEX Model

The possibility to predict bankruptcy of a company before it actually occurs has resulted in a development of a great number of research works on business failure. In theory, there are several models that could predict the financial instability of the companies. A few of these models have been expanded and applied in the developed countries the market environment of which differs from those in the developing and transition countries. When evaluating and predicting the excellence of a company it is important to consider the economic environment in which the company has been dealing. This is we have decided to use the BEX model as it has been designed for the Croatian business environment which is similar to the Macedonian one. The objective of this paper has been reached by developing a software analysis based on BEX model which enables calculation, determination and visual presentation of a company’s excellence, as well as a business success and failure prediction

Macroeconomic effects of IMF-sponsored programs in Latin America: output costs, program recidivism and the vicious cycle of failed stabilizations

We investigate the effects of IMF stabilization programs, and the reasons behind the unusually high IMF activity and relatively low program completion rates in Latin America. We base our tests on a panel, and distinguish between IMF program approvals and completion. We find that Latin America has higher output costs of IMF programs (especially when completed), no improvement in the current account, and a much higher likelihood of program failure and recidivism than other regions. The common finding that entering into an IMF-supported program incurs real short-run costs on the economy is entirely driven by the experiences in Latin America.Economic development - Latin America ; International Monetary Fund ; Macroeconomics

Productivity growth and product variety : gains from imitation and education

Is there a correlation between productivity and product variety? Certainly it appears that the rich countries are more productive and have more product variety than the poor nations. In fact, the relationship is quite strong when measured in levels. Does this same correlation hold up when measured in growth rates? If so, can poor countries imitate the success of the rich? Addison provides theoretical and empirical reasons to believe the answer to both questions is yes. Recent economic theory suggests that rising variety in factor inputs can help avoid diminishing marginal returns. Product variety can also sustain learning-by-doing which would otherwise be exhausted in a fixed number of products. Finally, invention or imitation adds to the stock of non-rival knowledge. There have been only two previous empirical tests of the correlation between growth in product variety and productivity growth. Both were affirmative but neither examined a wide range of developing countries and neither looked deeper to test what might drive product variety. This research is based on a cross-country sample of 29 countries (13 rich and 16 poor). The data display a statistically significant and positive relationship between growth in product variety and productivity growth when condition on other variables such as research and development (R&D) employment, macroeconomic stability, and domestic security. These results are robust to the addition and subtraction of various explanatory variables but fragile with respect to an influential data point for Venezuela. Industrial nations tend to generate most of their productivity gains through R&D employment in a stable environment that results in better production processes and product quality. In contrast, the largest source of productivity growth in developing countries is product variety imitation while instability takes away from productivity. Addison tests various explanations for growth in variety. The results show that nations furthest from the frontier of observable variety tend to imitate fastest, with the ability to imitate being improved by educational attainment and by productivity gains. This could be a source of hope for small, less developed nations. Growth in market size was not correlated with growth in variety, though this may be due to a rather short sample period of only eight years. In addition to the empirical testing, Addison also contributes to a general discussion of measurement concepts and measurement issues related to product variety and sets out an agenda for further research.Economic Theory&Research,Economic Conditions and Volatility,Environmental Economics&Policies,Public Health Promotion,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Economic Theory&Research,Achieving Shared Growth,Environmental Economics&Policies,Inequality,Economic Growth