Predictability of band-limited, high-frequency, and mixed processes in the presence of ideal low-pass filters

Pathwise predictability of continuous time processes is studied in deterministic setting. We discuss uniform prediction in some weak sense with respect to certain classes of inputs. More precisely, we study possibility of approximation of convolution integrals over future time by integrals over past time. We found that all band-limited processes are predictable in this sense, as well as high-frequency processes with zero energy at low frequencies. It follows that a process of mixed type still can be predicted if an ideal low-pass filter exists for this process.Comment: 10 page

Predictability on finite horizon for processes with exponential decrease of energy on higher frequencies

The paper presents sufficient conditions of predictability for continuous time processes in deterministic setting. We found that processes with exponential decay on energy for higher frequencies are predictable in some weak sense on some finite time horizon defined by the rate of decay. Moreover, this predictability can be achieved uniformly over classes of processes. Some explicit formulas for predictors are suggested.Comment: 11 page

Detectability of Extrasolar Planets in Radial Velocity Surveys

Radial velocity surveys are beginning to reach the time baselines required to detect Jupiter analogs, as well as sub-Saturn mass planets in close orbits. Therefore it is important to understand the sensitivity of these surveys at long periods and low amplitudes. In this paper, I derive analytic expressions for the detectability of planets at both short and long periods, for circular and eccentric orbits. I suggest an extension of the Lomb-Scargle periodogram for Keplerian orbits, and describe how to estimate the false alarm probability associated with a Keplerian fit. Using this to investigate the detectability of eccentric orbits shows that there are significant selection effects against eccentric orbits for e>0.6, and the small number of highly eccentric planets discovered so far may reflect this. Finally, I present a Bayesian approach to the periodogram, which emphasises the equivalence of least squares and periodogram techniques.Comment: MNRAS, in press (12 pages, 13 figures

Random template placement and prior information

In signal detection problems, one is usually faced with the task of searching a parameter space for peaks in the likelihood function which indicate the presence of a signal. Random searches have proven to be very efficient as well as easy to implement, compared e.g. to searches along regular grids in parameter space. Knowledge of the parameterised shape of the signal searched for adds structure to the parameter space, i.e., there are usually regions requiring to be densely searched while in other regions a coarser search is sufficient. On the other hand, prior information identifies the regions in which a search will actually be promising or may likely be in vain. Defining specific figures of merit allows one to combine both template metric and prior distribution and devise optimal sampling schemes over the parameter space. We show an example related to the gravitational wave signal from a binary inspiral event. Here the template metric and prior information are particularly contradictory, since signals from low-mass systems tolerate the least mismatch in parameter space while high-mass systems are far more likely, as they imply a greater signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and hence are detectable to greater distances. The derived sampling strategy is implemented in a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm where it improves convergence.Comment: Proceedings of the 8th Edoardo Amaldi Conference on Gravitational Waves. 7 pages, 4 figure

A Characterization of the Brightness Oscillations During Thermonuclear Bursts From 4U 1636-536

The discovery of nearly coherent brightness oscillations during thermonuclear X-ray bursts from six neutron-star low-mass X-ray binaries has opened up a new way to study the propagation of thermonuclear burning, and may ultimately lead to greater understanding of thermonuclear propagation in other astrophysical contexts, such as in Type Ia supernovae. Here we report detailed analyses of the ~580 Hz brightness oscillations during bursts from 4U 1636-536. We investigate the bursts as a whole and, in more detail, the initial portions of the bursts. We analyze the ~580 Hz oscillations in the initial 0.75 seconds of the five bursts that were used in a previous search for a brightness oscillation at the expected ~290 Hz spin frequency, and find that if the same frequency model describes all five bursts there is insufficient data to require more than a constant frequency or, possibly, a frequency plus a frequency derivative. Therefore, although it is appropriate to use an arbitrarily complicated model of the ~580 Hz oscillations to generate a candidate waveform for the ~290 Hz oscillations, models with more than two parameters are not required by the data. For the bursts as a whole we show that the characteristics of the brightness oscillations vary greatly from burst to burst. We find, however, that in at least one of the bursts, and possibly in three of the four that have strong brightness oscillations throughout the burst, the oscillation frequency reaches a maximum several seconds into the burst and then decreases. This behavior has not been reported previously for burst brightness oscillations, and it poses a challenge to the standard burning layer expansion explanation for the frequency changes.Comment: 18 pages including three figures, uses aaspp4.sty, submitted to The Astrophysical Journal on April

Searching for Gravitational Waves from Binary Inspirals with LIGO

We describe the current status of the search for gravitational waves from inspiralling compact binary systems in LIGO data. We review the result from the first scientific run of LIGO (S1). We present the goals of the search of data taken in the second scientific run (S2) and describe the differences between the methods used in S1 and S2.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figures. Published in proceedings of the 8th Gravitational Wave Data Analysis Workshop, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 17-20 December 200

Discrimination of signal and noise events on seismic recordings by linear threshold estimation theory

The object of this study is the investigation of a linear threshold element technique for identifying surface multiples on a single seismic trace. Traces of seismic events were generated which contained primaries, surface multiples, and various levels of Gaussian random noise. Since it was necessary to separate the events as much as possible, the traces were subjected to pulse-compression deconvolution processing prior to LTE analysis. Mean frequency, peak frequency, amplitude spectrum variance, periodicity, and polarity were employed as pattern parameters. A set of weights was found that would maximize the moment of inertia of the S line distribution of the patterns subject to the constraint that the sum of the squared values of the weights was minimized. It is shown that the problem of the maximization of the moment of inertia reduces to the solution of a simple eigenvalue problem. Furthermore, the optimum set of weights is the eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue of a matrix proportional to the autocovariance matrix of the pattern vectors. The classes of patterns representing primaries and multiples on traces with high signal-to-noise ratios were clustered and separated, making identification by inspection a simple procedure. Clustering and separation of classes on traces with low signal-to-noise ratios was less than optimum --Abstract, page ii

Gravitational waves from inspiraling compact binaries: Second post-Newtonian waveforms as search templates

We ascertain the effectiveness of the second post-Newtonian approximation to the gravitational waves emitted during the adiabatic inspiral of a compact binary system as templates for signal searches with kilometer-scale interferometric detectors. The reference signal is obtained by solving the Teukolsky equation for a small mass moving on a circular orbit around a large nonrotating black hole. Fitting factors computed from this signal and these templates, for various types of binary systems, are all above the 90% mark. According to Apostolatos' criterion, second post-Newtonian waveforms should make acceptably effective search templates.Comment: LaTeX, one eps figure. Hires and color versions are available from http://jovian.physics.uoguelph.ca/~droz/uni/papers/search.htm

Gravitational waves from inspiralling compact binaries: Parameter estimation using second-post-Newtonian waveforms

The parameters of inspiralling compact binaries can be estimated using matched filtering of gravitational-waveform templates against the output of laser-interferometric gravitational-wave detectors. Using a recently calculated formula, accurate to second post-Newtonian (2PN) order [order $(v/c)^4$, where $v$ is the orbital velocity], for the frequency sweep ($dF/dt$) induced by gravitational radiation damping, we study the statistical errors in the determination of such source parameters as the ``chirp mass'' $\cal M$, reduced mass $\mu$, and spin parameters $\beta$ and $\sigma$ (related to spin-orbit and spin-spin effects, respectively). We find that previous results using template phasing accurate to 1.5PN order actually underestimated the errors in $\cal M$, $\mu$, and $\beta$. For two inspiralling neutron stars, the measurement errors increase by less than 16 percent.Comment: 14 pages, ReVTe

Pulsar timing arrays as imaging gravitational wave telescopes: angular resolution and source (de)confusion

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) will be sensitive to a finite number of gravitational wave (GW) "point" sources (e.g. supermassive black hole binaries). N quiet pulsars with accurately known distances d_{pulsar} can characterize up to 2N/7 distant chirping sources per frequency bin \Delta f_{gw}=1/T, and localize them with "diffraction limited" precision \delta\theta \gtrsim (1/SNR)(\lambda_{gw}/d_{pulsar}). Even if the pulsar distances are poorly known, a PTA with F frequency bins can still characterize up to (2N/7)[1-(1/2F)] sources per bin, and the quasi-singular pattern of timing residuals in the vicinity of a GW source still allows the source to be localized quasi-topologically within roughly the smallest quadrilateral of quiet pulsars that encircles it on the sky, down to a limiting resolution \delta\theta \gtrsim (1/SNR) \sqrt{\lambda_{gw}/d_{pulsar}}. PTAs may be unconfused, even at the lowest frequencies, with matched filtering always appropriate.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure, matches Phys.Rev.D versio