Predicting Professional Golfer Performance Using Proprietary PGA Tour “Shotlink” Data

It can cost a minimum of $110,000 a year for a professional golfer to compete on the PGA Tour. For the successful golfers who earn millions every year, this is not a problem. For those lower ranked golfers, it is a problem. This is due to the fact that almost half the golfers who compete in any one PGA Tour tournament will not get paid, because they have missed the dreaded cut. When a golfer begins to consistently miss the cut, they can come under financial pressure which may manifest itself into poor further tournament performances. This dissertation attempts to aid these less successful golfers by developing models which will predict the likelihood of a professional golfer missing the cut or not. By using the prediction provided by these models, a golfer could then decide not compete in a tournament and so save money on travel expenses and support staff. They could then practice their golf game, working on the aspects of their skills that the model has suggested. Additionally, the dissertation will attempt to answer a number of questions surrounding the influence of external factors on a golfer’s performance using statistical inference