254,993 research outputs found
Doctor of Philosophy
dissertationThe explosion in computing power and its application to complex multiphysics problems has led to the emergence of computer simulation as a new way of extending the inductive methods of science. Many fields, particularly combustion, have been greatly changed by the ability of simulation to explore in great detail the implications of theories. But problems have also arisen; a philosophical foundation for establishing belief in simulation predictions, particularly important for complex multiphysics systems where experimental data are sparse, is sorely lacking. Toward the end of establishing such a foundation, a comprehensive philosophical approach to model validation, called instrumentalism, is proposed. A framework for verification and validation/uncertainty quantification (V&V/UQ) of codes is presented in detail, and is applied to a novel entrained flow coal gasification model implemented in the massively parallel simulation tool Arches. The V&V/UQ process begins at the mathematical model. The novel coal gasification model, which utilizes the direct quadrature method of moments (DQMOM) for the solid phase and large eddy simulation (LES) for the gas phase and accounts for coupling between the gas and solid phases, is described in detail. A verification methodology is presented in the larger context of validation and uncertainty quantification, and applied to the Arches coal gasification model. A six-step validation framework is adopted from the literature and applied to the validation of the Arches gasification model. One important aspect of this framework is model reduction, creating surrogate models for complex and expensive multiphysics simulators. A procedure for constructing surrogate response surface models is applied to the Arches gasification model, with several statistical analysis techniques used to determine the goodness of fit of the coal gasification response surface. This response surface is then analyzed using two methods: the Data Collaboration methodology, an approach from the literature; and a Monte Carlo analysis of the response surface. These analyses elucidate regions of parameter space where the simulation tool makes valid predictions. The Monte Carlo analysis also yields probabilities of simulation validity, given input parameter values. These probabilities are used to construct a prediction interval, which can then be used to compute the probability of a consistent simulation prediction
The application of multi-objective robust design methods in ship design
When designing large complex vessels, the evaluation of a particular design can be both complicated and time consuming. Designers often resort to the use of concept design models enabling both a reduction in complexity and time for evaluation. Various optimisation methods are then typically used to explore the design space facilitating the selection of optimum or near optimum designs. It is now possible to incorporate considerations of seakeeping, stability and costs at the earliest stage in the ship design process. However, to ensure that reliable results are obtained, the models used are generally complex and computationally expensive. Methods have been developed which avoid the necessity to carry out an exhaustive search of the complete design space. One such method is described which is concerned with the application of the theory of Design Of Experiments (DOE) enabling the design space to be efficiently explored. The objective of the DOE stage is to produce response surfaces which can then be used by an optimisation module to search the design space. It is assumed that the concept exploration tool whilst being a simplification of the design problem, is still sufficiently complicated to enable reliable evaluations of a particular design concept. The response surface is used as a representation of the concept exploration tool, and by it's nature can be used to rapidly evaluate a design concept hence reducing concept exploration time. While the methodology has a wide applicability in ship design and production, it is illustrated by its application to the design of a catamaran with respect to seakeeping. The paper presents results exploring the design space for the catamaran. A concept is selected which is robust with respect to the Relative Bow Motion (RBM), the heave, pitch and roll at any particular waveheading. The design space is defined by six controllable design parameters; hull length, breadth to draught ratio, distance between demihull centres, coefficient of waterplane, longitudinal centre of floatation, longitudinal centre of buoyancy, and by one noise parameter, the waveheading. A Pareto-optimal set of solutions is obtained using RBM, heave, pitch and roll as criteria. The designer can then select from this set the design which most closely satisfies their requirements. Typical solutions are shown to yield average reductions of over 25% in the objective functions when compared to earlier results obtained using conventional optimisation methods
Metamodelling of multivariable engine models for real-time flight simulation.
Sophisticated real-time distributed flight simulation environments may be constructed from a wide range of modelling and simulation tools. In this way accuracy, detail and model flexibility may be incorporated into the simulator. Distributed components may be constructed by a wide range of methods, from high level environments such as Matlab, through coded environments such as C or Fortran to hardware-in-the- loop. In this paper the Response Surface Methodology is combined with a hyper-heuristic (evolutionary algorithm) and applied to the representation of computationally intensive non-linear multivariable engine modelling. The paper investigates the potential for metamodelling (models of models) dynamic models which were previously too slow to be included in multi-component, high resolution real-time simulation environments. A multi-dimensional gas turbine model with five primary control inputs, six environmental inputs and eleven outputs is considered. An investigation has been conducted to ascertain to what extent these systems can be approximated by response surfaces with experiments which have been designed by hyper-heuristics as a first step towards automatic modelling methodology
Efficient estimation by FEA of machine tool distortion due to environmental temperature perturbations
Machine tools are susceptible to exogenous influences, which mainly derive from varying environmental conditions such as the day and night or seasonal transitions during which large temperature swings can occur. Thermal gradients cause heat to flow through the machine structure and results in non-linear structural deformation whether the machine is in operation or in a static mode. These environmentally stimulated deformations combine with the effects of any internally generated heat and can result in significant error increase if a machine tool is operated for long term regimes. In most engineering industries, environmental testing is often avoided due to the associated extensive machine downtime required to map empirically the thermal relationship and the associated cost to production. This paper presents a novel offline thermal error modelling methodology using finite element analysis (FEA) which significantly reduces the machine downtime required to establish the thermal response. It also describes the strategies required to calibrate the model using efficient on-machine measurement strategies. The technique is to create an FEA model of the machine followed by the application of the proposed methodology in which initial thermal states of the real machine and the simulated machine model are matched. An added benefit is that the method determines the minimum experimental testing time required on a machine; production management is then fully informed of the cost-to-production of establishing this important accuracy parameter. The most significant contribution of this work is presented in a typical case study; thermal model calibration is reduced from a fortnight to a few hours. The validation work has been carried out over a period of over a year to establish robustness to overall seasonal changes and the distinctly different daily changes at varying times of year. Samples of this data are presented that show that the FEA-based method correlated well with the experimental results resulting in the residual errors of less than 12 Îźm
Response-surface-model-based system sizing for nearly/net zero energy buildings under uncertainty
Properly treating uncertainty is critical for robust system sizing of nearly/net zero energy buildings (ZEBs). To treat uncertainty, the conventional method conducts Monte Carlo simulations for thousands of possible design options, which inevitably leads to computation load that is heavy or even impossible to handle. In order to reduce the number of Monte Carlo simulations, this study proposes a response-surface-model-based system sizing method. The response surface models of design criteria (i.e., the annual energy match ratio, self-consumption ratio and initial investment) are established based on Monte Carlo simulations for 29 specific design points which are determined by Box-Behnken design. With the response surface models, the overall performances (i.e., the weighted performance of the design criteria) of all design options (i.e., sizing combinations of photovoltaic, wind turbine and electric storage) are evaluated, and the design option with the maximal overall performance is finally selected. Cases studies with 1331 design options have validated the proposed method for 10,000 randomly produced decision scenarios (i.e., usersâ preferences to the design criteria). The results show that the established response surface models reasonably predict the design criteria with errors no greater than 3.5% at a cumulative probability of 95%. The proposed method reduces the number of Monte Carlos simulations by 97.8%, and robustly sorts out top 1.1% design options in expectation. With the largely reduced Monte Carlo simulations and high overall performance of the selected design option, the proposed method provides a practical and efficient means for system sizing of nearly/net ZEBs under uncertainty
- âŚ