Root Cause Analysis in Business Processes

Conceptual modeling is an important tool for understanding and revealing weaknesses of business processes. Yet, the current practice in reengineering projects often considers simply the as-is control flow and uses the respective model barely as a reference for brain-storming about improvement opportunities. This approach heavily relies on the intuition of the participants and misses a clear description of steps to identify root causes of problems. In contrast to that, this paper introduces a systematic methodology to detect and document the quality dimension of a business process. It builds on the definition of softgoals for each process activity, of correlations between softgoals, and metrics to measure the occurrence of quality issues. In this regard our contribution is a foundation of root-cause analysis in business process modeling, and a conceptual integration of goal-based and activity-based approaches to capturing processes

Export diversification and resource-based industrialization: the case of natural gas

For resource-rich economies, primary commodity specialization has often been considered to be detrimental to growth. Accordingly, export diversification policies centered on resource-based industries have long been advocated as effective ways to moderate the large variability of export revenues. This paper discusses the applicability of a mean-variance portfolio approach to design these strategies and proposes some modifications aimed at capturing the key features of resource processing industries (presence of scale economies and investment lumpiness). These modifications help make the approach more plausible for use in resource-rich countries. An application to the case of natural gas is then discussed using data obtained from Monte Carlo simulations of a calibrated empirical model. Lastly, the proposed framework is put to work to evaluate the performances of the diversification strategies implemented in a set of nine gas-rich economies. These results are then used to formulate some policy recommendations

Data-driven through-life costing to support product lifecycle management solutions in innovative product development

Innovative product usually refers to product that comprises of creativity and new ideas. In the development of such a new product, there is often a lack of historical knowledge and data available to be used to perform cost estimation accurately. This is due to the fact that traditional cost estimation methods are used to predict costs only after a product model has been built, and not at an early design stage when there is little data and information available. In light of this, original equipment manufacturers are also facing critical challenges of becoming globally competitive and increasing demands from customer for continuous innovation. To alleviate these situations this research has identified a new approach to cost modelling with the inclusion of product lifecycle management solutions to address innovative product development.The aim of this paper, therefore, is to discuss methods of developing an extended-enterprise data-driven through-life cost estimating method for innovative product development

On trade-offs between timber and biodiversity

For a long time the primary aim of forestry in Sweden has been the production of timber, but in recent decades other functions, such as biodiversity, have been increasingly recognised by society. Sweden has ambitious goals for forest management, aimed at serving public interests, providing valuable timber yields and preserving biodiversity. Achieving the level of various goods that forests shall provide, under such goals, is thus rather complex. This thesis focuses on trade-offs between production of timber and the maintenance of biodiversity in forests, and the effects of information on benefits, costs and biological traits. In Paper I the benefit of forest land protection was estimated based on a nation wide contingent valuation survey. Paper II examined and compared, through survey data, the attitudes among private forest owners and forest officers. Papers III and IV used data from a field inventory in old growth forests (>110 years of age) of Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) in the county of Gävleborg, Sweden. In Paper III the relative importance of information about costs and biological traits in reserve selection was examined. In Paper IV the cost-efficiency of different strategies for setting aside forests, using different biodiversity targets, were analysed. The thesis revealed a positive willingness to pay for forest land protection among Swedish citizens, and also a positive attitude among private forest owners to biodiversity as well as timber production. The views of forest owners and forest officers did not always coincide. Moreover, the relative importance of including data on costs and conservation benefits depended on how the conservation goal of the reserve network was formulated. There was also a difference in cost-effectiveness between different nature conservation strategies and biodiversity targets. The results emphasise the importance of achieving cost-effective solutions in biodiversity conservation through the proper use of information about biological traits and costs, as well as considering values and attitudes held by different interest groups in society

Application of expert systems in project management decision aiding

The feasibility of developing an expert systems-based project management decision aid to enhance the performance of NASA project managers was assessed. The research effort included extensive literature reviews in the areas of project management, project management decision aiding, expert systems technology, and human-computer interface engineering. Literature reviews were augmented by focused interviews with NASA managers. Time estimation for project scheduling was identified as the target activity for decision augmentation, and a design was developed for an Integrated NASA System for Intelligent Time Estimation (INSITE). The proposed INSITE design was judged feasible with a low level of risk. A partial proof-of-concept experiment was performed and was successful. Specific conclusions drawn from the research and analyses are included. The INSITE concept is potentially applicable in any management sphere, commercial or government, where time estimation is required for project scheduling. As project scheduling is a nearly universal management activity, the range of possibilities is considerable. The INSITE concept also holds potential for enhancing other management tasks, especially in areas such as cost estimation, where estimation-by-analogy is already a proven method