Framework For Quantifying And Tailoring Complexity And Risk To Manage Uncertainty In Developing Complex Products And Systems

In recent years there has been a renewed interest in product complexity due its negative impact on launch performance. Research indicates that underestimating complexity is one of the most common errors repeated by new product development (NPD) teams. It was concluded that companies that successfully manage complexity can maintain a competitive advantage. This is particularly true of CoPS projects (Complex Products and Systems) which are defined as large-scale, high value, engineering intensive products and systems. Investment in CoPS projects continues to grow worldwide, with recent estimates placed at over $500B annually. In this research we present methods to improve the planning and coordination of complexity and risk in CoPS projects to support launch success. The methods are designed to be consistent with systems engineering practices which are commonly used in their development. The research proposes novel methods for the assessment, quantification, and management of development complexity and risk. The models are initiated from preliminary customer requirements so they may be implemented at the earliest point in the development process and yield the most significant cost savings and impact. The models presented are validated on a large-scale defense industry project and experimental case study example. The research demonstrates that development complexity and risk can be effectively quantified in the early development stages and used to align and tailor organizational resources to improve PD performance. The methods also provide the benefit of being implementable with little disruption to existing processes as they align closely with current industry practices

Assessing Resilience in Power Grids as a Particular Case of Supply Chain Management

Electrical power grids represent a critical infrastructure for a nation as well as strategically important. Literature review identified that power grids share basic characteristics with Supply Chain Management. This thesis presents a linear programming model to assess power grid resilience as a particular case of Supply Chain Management. Since resilient behavior is not an individual or specific system\u27s attribute but a holistic phenomenon based on the synergic interaction within complex systems, resilience drivers in power grids were identified. Resilience is a function of Reliability, Recovery Capability, Vulnerability and Pipeline Capacity. In order to embed heterogeneous variables into the model, parameterization of resilience drivers were developed. A principle of improving resilience through redundancy was applied in the model by using a virtual redundancy in each link which allows reliability improvement throughout the entire network. Vulnerability was addressed through the standard MIL-STD 882D, and mitigated through security allocation. A unique index (R) integrates the resilience complexity to facilitate alternate scenarios analysis toward strategic decision making. Decision makers are enabled to improve overall power grid performance through reliability development as well as security allocation at the more strategic links identified by the optimal solutions. Moreover, this tool lets decision makers fix grid variables such as reliability, reduced pipeline capacity, or vulnerabilities within the model in order to find optimal solutions that withstand disruptions. The model constitutes an effective tool not only for efficient reliability improvement but also for rational security allocation in the most critical links within the network. Finally, this work contributes to the federal government mandates accomplishment, intended to address electrical power-related risks and vulnerabilities

Application of computational intelligence to explore and analyze system architecture and design alternatives

Systems Engineering involves the development or improvement of a system or process from effective need to a final value-added solution. Rapid advances in technology have led to development of sophisticated and complex sensor-enabled, remote, and highly networked cyber-technical systems. These complex modern systems present several challenges for systems engineers including: increased complexity associated with integration and emergent behavior, multiple and competing design metrics, and an expansive design parameter solution space. This research extends the existing knowledge base on multi-objective system design through the creation of a framework to explore and analyze system design alternatives employing computational intelligence. The first research contribution is a hybrid fuzzy-EA model that facilitates the exploration and analysis of possible SoS configurations. The second contribution is a hybrid neural network-EA in which the EA explores, analyzes, and evolves the neural network architecture and weights. The third contribution is a multi-objective EA that examines potential installation (i.e. system) infrastructure repair strategies. The final contribution is the introduction of a hierarchical multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) framework with a feedback mechanism to evolve and simultaneously evaluate competing subsystem and system level performance objectives. Systems architects and engineers can utilize the frameworks and approaches developed in this research to more efficiently explore and analyze complex system design alternatives --Abstract, page iv

Resource Allocation in Networking and Computing Systems: A Security and Dependability Perspective

In recent years, there has been a trend to integrate networking and computing systems, whose management is getting increasingly complex. Resource allocation is one of the crucial aspects of managing such systems and is affected by this increased complexity. Resource allocation strategies aim to effectively maximize performance, system utilization, and profit by considering virtualization technologies, heterogeneous resources, context awareness, and other features. In such complex scenario, security and dependability are vital concerns that need to be considered in future computing and networking systems in order to provide the future advanced services, such as mission-critical applications. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of existing literature that considers security and dependability for resource allocation in computing and networking systems. The current research works are categorized by considering the allocated type of resources for different technologies, scenarios, issues, attributes, and solutions. The paper presents the research works on resource allocation that includes security and dependability, both singularly and jointly. The future research directions on resource allocation are also discussed. The paper shows how there are only a few works that, even singularly, consider security and dependability in resource allocation in the future computing and networking systems and highlights the importance of jointly considering security and dependability and the need for intelligent, adaptive and robust solutions. This paper aims to help the researchers effectively consider security and dependability in future networking and computing systems.publishedVersio

System importance measures: A new approach to resilient systems-of-systems

Resilience is the ability to withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions. While this attribute has been the focus of research in several fields, in the case of system-of-systems (SoSs), addressing resilience is particularly interesting and challenging. As infrastructure SoSs, such as power, transportation, and communication networks, grow in complexity and interconnectivity, measuring and improving the resilience of these SoSs is vital in terms of safety and providing uninterrupted services. ^ The characteristics of systems-of-systems make analysis and design of resilience challenging. However, these features also offer opportunities to make SoSs resilient using unconventional methods. In this research, we present a new approach to the process of resilience design. The core idea behind the proposed design process is a set of system importance measures (SIMs) that identify systems crucial to overall resilience. Using the results from the SIMs, we determine appropriate strategies from a list of design principles to improve SoS resilience. The main contribution of this research is the development of an aid to design that provides specific guidance on where and how resources need to be targeted. Based on the needs of an SoS, decision-makers can iterate through the design process to identify a set of practical and effective design improvements. ^ We use two case studies to demonstrate how the SIM-based design process can inform decision-making in the context of SoS resilience. The first case study focuses on a naval warfare SoS and describes how the resilience framework can leverage existing simulation models to support end-to-end design. We proceed through stages of the design approach using an agent-based model (ABM) that enables us to demonstrate how simulation tools and analytical models help determine the necessary inputs for the design process and, subsequently, inform decision-making regarding SoS resilience. ^ The second case study considers the urban transportation network in Boston. This case study focuses on interpreting the results of the resilience framework and on describing how they can be used to guide design choices in large infrastructure networks. We use different resilience maps to highlight the range of design-related information that can be obtained from the framework. ^ Specific advantages of the SIM-based resilience design include: (1) incorporates SoS- specific features within existing risk-based design processes - the SIMs determine the relative importance of different systems based on their impacts on SoS-level performance, and suggestions for resilience improvement draw from design options that leverage SoS- specific characteristics, such as the ability to adapt quickly (such as add new systems or re-task existing ones) and to provide partial recovery of performance in the aftermath of a disruption; (2) allows rapid understanding of different areas of concern within the SoS - the visual nature of the resilience map (a key outcome of the SIM analysis) provides a useful way to summarize the current resilience of the SoS as well as point to key systems of concern; and (3) provides a platform for multiple analysts and decision- makers to study, modify, discuss and documentoptions for SoS

Mission Assurance: A Review of Continuity of Operations Guidance for Application to Cyber Incident Mission Impact Assessment (CIMIA)

Military organizations have embedded information technology (IT) into their core mission processes as a means to increase operational efficiency, improve decision-making quality, and shorten the sensor-to-shooter cycle. This IT-to-mission dependence can place the organizational mission at risk when an information incident (e.g., the loss or manipulation of a critical information resource) occurs. Non-military organizations typically address this type of IT risk through an introspective, enterprise-wide focused risk management program that continuously identifies, prioritizes, and documents risks so an economical set of control measures (e.g., people, processes, technology) can be selected to mitigate the risks to an acceptable level. The explicit valuation of information resources in terms of their ability to support the organizational mission objectives provides transparency and enables the creation of a continuity of operations plan and an incident recovery plan. While this type of planning has proven successful in static environments, military missions often involve dynamically changing, time-sensitive, complex, coordinated operations involving multiple organizational entities. As a consequence, risk mitigation efforts tend to be localized to each organizational entity making the enterprise-wide risk management approach to mission assurance infeasible. This thesis investigates the concept of mission assurance and presents a content analysis of existing continuity of operations elements within military and non-military guidance to assess the current policy landscape to highlight best practices and identify policy gaps in an effort to further enhance mission assurance by improving the timeliness and relevance of notification following an information incident

Synthesis, Interdiction, and Protection of Layered Networks

This research developed the foundation, theory, and framework for a set of analysis techniques to assist decision makers in analyzing questions regarding the synthesis, interdiction, and protection of infrastructure networks. This includes extension of traditional network interdiction to directly model nodal interdiction; new techniques to identify potential targets in social networks based on extensions of shortest path network interdiction; extension of traditional network interdiction to include layered network formulations; and develops models/techniques to design robust layered networks while considering trade-offs with cost. These approaches identify the maximum protection/disruption possible across layered networks with limited resources, find the most robust layered network design possible given the budget limitations while ensuring that the demands are met, include traditional social network analysis, and incorporate new techniques to model the interdiction of nodes and edges throughout the formulations. In addition, the importance and effects of multiple optimal solutions for these (and similar) models is investigated. All the models developed are demonstrated on notional examples and were tested on a range of sample problem sets

USE OF FLEET AVIATION ELECTRONIC ATTACK SQUADRONS FOR OPERATIONAL TEST AND EVALUATION OF NEXT GENERATION JAMMER MID-BAND (ALQ-249) PROGRAM

The purpose of this research is to analyze the potential advantages, disadvantages, and risks to cost, schedule, and performance of shifting the role of operational test and evaluation (OT&E) of the Next Generation Jammer Mid-Band (NGJ-MB) program from a dedicated OT&E squadron at Air Test and Evaluation Squadron Nine (AIRTEVRON NINE; VX-9) to a fleet aviation electronic attack squadron. The operational constraints of the modern Naval Aviation Enterprise (NAE) squadron to deploy as part of the warfighting force against a peer adversary is examined to identify the risks to the successful OT&E of the NGJ-MB program. My methodology includes examining fleet operational tempo and the Navy’s Optimized Fleet Response Plan scheduling, resourcing, training, proficiency, tactical expertise, and administration. A strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats analysis, followed by a cost-effective analysis, are used to analyze the risks to test execution and reporting compared to VX-9. In the research conclusion, I recommend the more beneficial, efficient, and effective path to execute OT&E for the NGJ-MB program. The consequences to cost, schedule, and performance to the NGJ-MB program give high confidence that fleet aviation squadrons should not be tasked to perform OT&E. VX-9 should be properly resourced, funded, and supported by the Navy to assess the operational effectiveness and suitability of the NGJ-MB pod.Lieutenant Commander, United States NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

AN ANALYSIS OF HOW THE U.S. GOVERNMENT CAN EFFECTIVELY TACKLE SUPPLY CHAIN BARRIERS TO SCALE UP THE LOW COST UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE (UAV) SWARMING TECHNOLOGY (LOCUST) PROGRAM

The LOCUST program is a scalable system of inexpensive swarming unmanned aerial vehicles to provide disruptive capability in contested environments against anti-area access denial defenses, enabling manned strike operations and localized landing site superiority with reduced cost, risk, and operator launch and workload. Our research and analysis will emphasize the challenges of moving from a U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) effort to a large program of record. Specific supply chain concerns that will be addressed include: 1) DOD organizational structure; 2) service-specific objectives and currently operating platforms; 3) requirements generation and related procurements to include production and quality challenges; 4) safety and quality assurance standards; 5) lead times, inventory plans, and throughput to include supplier base considerations and consolidations; and 6) latest evolving technologies and continuous improvement principles. Our team will utilize the Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control (DMAIC) evaluative methodology that focuses on data-driven improvement cycles to better optimize process, design and results. Our results and recommendations highlighted multiple strategies that the Office of Naval Research (ONR) must focus on when developing the LOCUST supply chain. These conclusions and findings address both current supply chain development opportunities for the LOCUST program, as well as where the program must focus its efforts in the future.http://archive.org/details/ananalysisofhowt1094563516Civilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the ArmyCivilian, Department of the ArmyApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

LOGISTICS IN CONTESTED ENVIRONMENTS

This report examines the transport and delivery of logistics in contested environments within the context of great-power competition (GPC). Across the Department of Defense (DOD), it is believed that GPC will strain our current supply lines beyond their capacity to maintain required warfighting capability. Current DOD efforts are underway to determine an appropriate range of platforms, platform quantities, and delivery tactics to meet the projected logistics demand in future conflicts. This report explores the effectiveness of various platforms and delivery methods through analysis in developed survivability, circulation, and network optimization models. Among other factors, platforms are discriminated by their radar cross-section (RCS), noise level, speed, cargo capacity, and self-defense capability. To maximize supply delivered and minimize the cost of losses, the results of this analysis indicate preference for utilization of well-defended convoys on supply routes where bulk supply is appropriate and smaller, and widely dispersed assets on shorter, more contested routes with less demand. Sensitivity analysis on these results indicates system survivability can be improved by applying RCS and noise-reduction measures to logistics assets.Director, Warfare Integration (OPNAV N9I)Major, Israel Defence ForcesCivilian, Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd, SingaporeCommander, Republic of Singapore NavyCommander, United States NavyCaptain, Singapore ArmyLieutenant, United States NavyLieutenant, United States NavyMajor, Republic of Singapore Air ForceCaptain, United States Marine CorpsLieutenant, United States NavyLieutenant, United States NavyLieutenant, United States NavyLieutenant, United States NavyLieutenant, United States NavyCaptain, Singapore ArmyLieutenant Junior Grade, United States NavyCaptain, Singapore ArmyLieutenant Colonel, Republic of Singapore Air ForceApproved for public release. distribution is unlimite