Carbon Capture and Sequestration: How Much Does this Uncertain Option Affect Near-Term Policy Choices?

One of the main issues in the climate policy agenda, the timing of abatement efforts, hinges on the uncertainties of climate change risks and technological evolution. We use a stochastic optimization framework and jointly explore these two features. First, we embed in the model future potential large-scale availability of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies. While non-CCS mitigation that reduces fossil energy use is modelled as exerting inertia on the economic system, mainly due to the durability of the capital in energy systems and to technology lock-in and lock-out phenomena, the implementation of CCS technologies is modelled as implying less resilience of the system to changes in policy directions. Second, climate uncertainty is related in the model to the atmospheric temperature response to an increase in GHGs concentration. Performing different simulation experiments, we find that the environmental target, derived from a cost-benefit analysis, should be more ambitious when CCS is included in the picture. Moreover, the possible future availability of CCS is not a reason to significantly reduce near-term optimal abatement efforts. Finally, the availability of better information on the climate cycle is in general more valuable than better information on the CCS technological option.Climate change, Uncertainty, Sequestration, Cost-benefit analysis

Vegetation anomalies caused by antecedent precipitation in most of the world

Quantifying environmental controls on vegetation is critical to predict the net effect of climate change on global ecosystems and the subsequent feedback on climate. Following a non-linear Granger causality framework based on a random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of multi-decadal satellite data records to uncover the main drivers of monthly vegetation variability at the global scale. Results indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation globally: about 61% of the vegetated surface was primarily water-limited during 1981-2010. This included semiarid climates but also transitional ecoregions. Intraannually, temperature controls Northern Hemisphere deciduous forests during the growing season, while antecedent precipitation largely dominates vegetation dynamics during the senescence period. The uncovered dependency of global vegetation on water availability is substantially larger than previously reported. This is owed to the ability of the framework to (1) disentangle the co-linearities between radiation/temperature and precipitation, and (2) quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our results reveal a prolonged effect of precipitation anomalies in dry regions: due to the long memory of soil moisture and the cumulative, nonlinear, response of vegetation, water-limited regions show sensitivity to the values of precipitation occurring three months earlier. Meanwhile, the impacts of temperature and radiation anomalies are more immediate and dissipate shortly, pointing to a higher resilience of vegetation to these anomalies. Despite being infrequent by definition, hydro-climatic extremes are responsible for up to 10% of the vegetation variability during the 1981-2010 period in certain areas, particularly in water-limited ecosystems. Our approach is a first step towards a quantitative comparison of the resistance and resilience signature of different ecosystems, and can be used to benchmark Earth system models in their representations of past vegetation sensitivity to changes in climate

The fluctuating resource hypothesis explains invasibility, but not exotic advantage following disturbance

Invasibility is a key indicator of community susceptibility to changes in structure and function. The fluctuating resource hypothesis (FRH) postulates that invasibility is an emergent community property, a manifestation of multiple processes that cannot be reliably predicted by individual community attributes like diversity or productivity. Yet, research has emphasized the role of these individual attributes, with the expectation that diversity should deter invasibility and productivity enhance it. In an effort to explore how these and other factors may influence invasibility, we evaluated the relationship between invasibility and species richness, productivity, resource availability, and resilience in experiments crossing disturbance with exotic seed addition in 1-m2 plots replicated over large expanses of grasslands in Montana, USA and La Pampa, Argentina. Disturbance increased invasibility as predicted by FRH, but grasslands were more invasible in Montana than La Pampa whether disturbed or not, despite Montana´s higher species richness and lower productivity. Moreover, invasibility correlated positively with nitrogen availability and negatively with native plant cover. These patterns suggested that resource availability and the ability of the community to recover from disturbance (resilience) better predicted invasibility than either species richness or productivity, consistent with predictions from FRH. However, in ambient, unseeded plots in Montana, disturbance reduced native cover by >50% while increasing exotic cover >200%. This provenance bias could not be explained by FRH, which predicts that colonization processes act on species? traits independent of origins. The high invasibility of Montana grasslands following disturbance was associated with a strong shift from perennial to annual species, as predicted by succession theory. However, this shift was driven primarily by exotic annuals, which were more strongly represented than perennials in local exotic vs. native species pools. We attribute this provenance bias to extrinsic biogeographic factors such as disparate evolutionary histories and/or introduction filters selecting for traits that favor exotics following disturbance. Our results suggest that (1) invasibility is an emergent property best explained by a community´s efficiency in utilizing resources, as predicted by FRH but (2) understanding provenance biases in biological invasions requires moving beyond FRH to incorporate extrinsic biogeographic factors that may favor exotics in community assembly.Fil: Pearson, Dean. United State Forest Service; Estados Unidos. University of Montana; Estados UnidosFil: Ortega, Yvette K.. United State Forest Service; Estados UnidosFil: Villarreal, Diego. Universidad Nacional de La Pampa. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; ArgentinaFil: Lekberg, Ylva. University of Montana; Estados UnidosFil: Cock, Marina Cecilia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra y Ambientales de La Pampa. Universidad Nacional de La Pampa. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra y Ambientales de La Pampa; ArgentinaFil: Eren, Ozkan. Adnan Menderes Universitesi; TurquíaFil: Hierro, Jose Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra y Ambientales de La Pampa. Universidad Nacional de La Pampa. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra y Ambientales de La Pampa; Argentin

Assessing tidal marsh resilience to sea-level rise at broad geographic scales with multi-metric indices

Tidal marshes and the ecosystem services they provide may be at risk from sea-level rise (SLR). Tidal marsh resilience to SLR can vary due to differences in local rates of SLR, geomorphology, sediment availability and other factors. Understanding differences in resilience is critical to inform coastal management and policy, but comparing resilience across marshes is hindered by a lack of simple, effective analysis tools. Quantitative, multi-metric indices are widely employed to inform management of benthic aquatic ecosystems, but not coastal wetlands. Here, we develop and apply tidal marsh resilience to sea-level rise (MARS) indices incorporating ten metrics that contribute to overall marsh resilience to SLR. We applied MARS indices to tidal marshes at 16 National Estuarine Research Reserves across the conterminous U.S. This assessment revealed moderate resilience overall, although nearly all marshes had some indication of risk. Pacific marshes were generally more resilient to SLR than Atlantic ones, with the least resilient marshes found in southern New England. We provide a calculation tool to facilitate application of the MARS indices to additional marshes. MARS index scores can inform the choice of the most appropriate coastal management strategy for a marsh: moderate scores call for actions to enhance resilience while low scores suggest investment may be better directed to adaptation strategies such as creating opportunities for marsh migration rather than attempting to save existing marshes. The MARS indices thus provide a powerful new approach to evaluate tidal marsh resilience and to inform development of adaptation strategies in the face of SLR

WORKING MOTHER AND FAMILY ECONOMY RESILIENCE IN THE COVID-19 ERA: EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA

Covid-19 pandemic, which occurred in early 2020, has resulted in more than 50 percent of households experiencing financial difficulties, especially those who rely on personal businesses. This study aims to analyze the effect of working mothers on family economic resilience during the Covid-19 pandemic. This study obtained the primary data by distributing questionnaires to 173 respondents using the purposive sampling technique. The approach used is quantitative with Ordinary Least Square (OLS) as the data analysis method. The dependent variable is family economic resilience, and the independent variable is female workers. The results showed that working women could support and contribute to their households in helping meet the daily needs of their families. Thus, working mothers have a positive effect on household economic resilience during the Covid-19 pandemic. For this reason, during the Covid-19 period, a wife's role is needed to contribute to the family economy so that the family's economic resilience remains stable. Furthermore, this research revealed the importance of the government's roles and stakeholders to provide facilities such as working capital for women, availability of employment opportunities for women, and work regulations that support women in balancing their dual roles

Socio-Economic Resilience to Floods in Coastal Areas of Thailand

Krabi and Nakhon Si Thammarat are two coastal provinces in Thailand facing substantial threats from climate change induced hydrometeorological hazards, including enhanced coastal erosion and flooding. Human populations and livelihoods in these coastal provinces are at greater risk than those in inland provinces. However, little is known about the communities’ resilience and coping capacities regarding hydrometeorological hazards of varying magnitudes. The study conducted a quantitative socio-economic assessment of how people in Krabi and Nakhon Si Thammarat provinces manage and respond to hydrometeorological hazards, examining their resilience and coping capacities. This was a cross-sectional study based on secondary data collection on the social and economic dimensions of resilience, and a review of literature on coping mechanisms to hydrometeorological hazards within the study area. Measuring and mapping socio-economic resilience was based on the available data gathered from the social and economic dimensions, with existing or standard indicators on exposure and vulnerability applied uniformly across subdistricts. A combination of social and economic dimensions produced novel socio-economic resilience index scores by subdistrict, which were mapped accordingly for the two coastal provinces. The study also derived a coping capacity index scores by combining availability of skills or soft capacity and availability of structural resources or hard coping capacity. Socio-economic resilience index scores varied greatly amongst subdistricts. Combining the soft and hard coping capacities, the average score across districts in both provinces was 3 out of a possible 4, meaning that most of the districts were largely resilient. However, variations also existed by subdistrict. Few subdistricts in both Krabi and Nakhon Si Thammarat provinces had low coping capacity index scores between 1 and 2 out of 4. District averages of socio-economic resilience scores mask the variations at subdistrict level. More studies with rigorous methodologies at village or neighborhood level is needed to obtain a nuanced understanding of community resilience to hydrometeorological hazards

Modeling and analysis of network resilience : the security perspective

The increased impact of global Internet in our daily lives is a continuous challenge for those who are responsible for their design, planning, implementation and administration. As the Internet becomes more important to citizens, organizations and nations, more pressure is placed in their reliability, availability and security or, in other terms, in its Resilience. Because Internet was not initially designed to support the actual levels of responsibility in the global economy, it is now evident that new paradigms and enhancements are needed to make this a resilient network. From the three disciplines that mainly characterize network resilience, security is one of the most challenging. In fact, the range of security threats that nowadays affect Internet is immense and increasingly complex, with the beginning of a new era where the concept of cyber-wars between nations becomes reality. One of the most relevant security threats is the malware and botnet phenomenon. Despite the development of several different types of countermeasures to fight these threats during more than a decade, this continues to be a field with big challenges and where new and solid improvements are needed

Valuating hydrocarbon pipeline facility service beyond 20–25 year economic life: Accounting for residual value

The 20–25 years economic life for hydrocarbon pipelines in the investment decision model is at wide variance with historical statistical records of more than 90-percent world-wide. Opinions diverge, from service type to the product quality, and materials resilience as basis for this premise. While, financial experts consider time to fully depreciate a capital investment, irrespective of the rate of returns, engineers consider operational availability and reliability duration. The risk is that actual residue values of pipelines worldwide are erroneously omitted in every project’s economics Cash-flow computation, thus eroding the investment decision quality. Statistics showed that more than 60-percent of pipelines worldwide have already exceeded the 25 years economic life, while more than 40-percent have operated more than 30-years and above. This theoretical appraisal identified a gap in the economic model in handling multi-criteria risk management uncertainties like hedging, weighting, etc., and highlighted the exigency to craft and assign numeric residue values for pipelines in the investment Cash-flow models

Severe drought rather than cropping system determines litter decomposition in arable systems

"Litter decomposition is a fundamental process in soil carbon dynamics and nutrient turnover. However, litter decomposition in arable systems remains poorly explored, and it is unclear whether different management practices, such as organic farming, conservation agriculture can mitigate drought effects on litter decomposition. Thus, we examined the effects of a severe experimental drought on litter decomposition in four cropping systems, i.e., organic vs. conventional farming, each with two levels of tillage (intensive vs. conservation tillage) in Switzerland. We incubated two types of standard litter (tea bags), i.e., high-quality green tea with a low C:N ratio and low-quality rooibos tea with a high C:N ratio. We assessed litter decomposition during the simulated drought and in the post-drought period during three years in three different crops, i.e., pea-barley, maize, and winter wheat. Subsequently, we assessed whether decomposition in the four cropping systems differed in its resistance and resilience to drought. Drought had a major impact on litter decomposition and suppressed decomposition to a similar extent in all cropping systems. Both drought resistance and resilience of decomposition were largely independent of cropping systems. Drought more strongly reduced decomposition of the high-quality litter compared to the low-quality litter during drought conditions regarding the absolute change in mass remaining (12.3% vs. 6.5 %, respectively). However, the decomposition of high-quality litter showed a higher resilience, i.e., high-quality approached undisturbed decomposition levels faster than low-quality litter after drought. Soil nitrate availability was also strongly reduced by drought (by 32–86 %), indicating the strong reduction in nutrient availability and, most likely, microbial activity due to water shortage. In summary, our study suggests that severe drought has a much stronger impact on decomposition than cropping system indicating that it might not be possible to maintain decomposition under drought by the cropping system approaches we studied. Nevertheless, management options that improve litter quality, such as the use of legume crops with high N concentrations, may help to enhance the resilience of litter decomposition in drought-stressed crop fields.

Learning or leaving? An international qualitative study of factors affecting the resilience of female family doctors

Background: Many countries have insufficient numbers of family doctors, and more females than males leave the workforce at a younger age or have difficulty sustaining careers. Understanding the differing attitudes, pressures, and perceptions between genders toward their medical occupation is important to minimise workforce attrition. Aim: To explore factors influencing the resilience of female family doctors during lifecycle transitions. Design & setting: International qualitative study with female family doctors from all world regions. Method: Twenty semi-structured online Skype interviews, followed by three focus groups to develop recommendations. Data were transcribed and analysed using applied framework analysis. Results: Interview participants described a complex interface between competing demands, expectations of their gender, and internalised expectations of themselves. Systemic barriers, such as lack of flexible working, excessive workload, and the cumulative impacts of unrealistic expectations impaired the ability to fully contribute in the workplace. At the individual level, resilience related to: the ability to make choices; previous experiences that had encouraged self-confidence; effective engagement to obtain support; and the ability to handle negative experiences. External support, such as strong personal networks, and an adaptive work setting and organisation or system maximised interviewees’ professional contributions. Conclusion: On an international scale, female family doctors experience similar pressures from competing demands during lifecycle transitions; some of which relate to expectations of the female's ’role’ in society, particularly around the additional personal pressures of caring commitments. Such situations could be predicted, planned for, and mitigated with explicit support mechanisms and availability of workplace choices. Healthcare organisations and systems around the world should recognise this need and implement recommendations to help reduce workforce losses. These findings are likely to be of interest to all health professional staff of any gender