17,168 research outputs found

    Methods of Technical Prognostics Applicable to Embedded Systems

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    Hlavní cílem dizertace je poskytnutí uceleného pohledu na problematiku technické prognostiky, která nachází uplatnění v tzv. prediktivní údržbě založené na trvalém monitorování zařízení a odhadu úrovně degradace systému či jeho zbývající životnosti a to zejména v oblasti komplexních zařízení a strojů. V současnosti je technická diagnostika poměrně dobře zmapovaná a reálně nasazená na rozdíl od technické prognostiky, která je stále rozvíjejícím se oborem, který ovšem postrádá větší množství reálných aplikaci a navíc ne všechny metody jsou dostatečně přesné a aplikovatelné pro embedded systémy. Dizertační práce přináší přehled základních metod použitelných pro účely predikce zbývající užitné životnosti, jsou zde popsány metriky pomocí, kterých je možné jednotlivé přístupy porovnávat ať už z pohledu přesnosti, ale také i z pohledu výpočetní náročnosti. Jedno z dizertačních jader tvoří doporučení a postup pro výběr vhodné prognostické metody s ohledem na prognostická kritéria. Dalším dizertačním jádrem je představení tzv. částicového filtrovaní (particle filtering) vhodné pro model-based prognostiku s ověřením jejich implementace a porovnáním. Hlavní dizertační jádro reprezentuje případovou studii pro velmi aktuální téma prognostiky Li-Ion baterii s ohledem na trvalé monitorování. Případová studie demonstruje proces prognostiky založené na modelu a srovnává možné přístupy jednak pro odhad doby před vybitím baterie, ale také sleduje možné vlivy na degradaci baterie. Součástí práce je základní ověření modelu Li-Ion baterie a návrh prognostického procesu.The main aim of the thesis is to provide a comprehensive overview of technical prognosis, which is applied in the condition based maintenance, based on continuous device monitoring and remaining useful life estimation, especially in the field of complex equipment and machinery. Nowadays technical prognosis is still evolving discipline with limited number of real applications and is not so well developed as technical diagnostics, which is fairly well mapped and deployed in real systems. Thesis provides an overview of basic methods applicable for prediction of remaining useful life, metrics, which can help to compare the different approaches both in terms of accuracy and in terms of computational/deployment cost. One of the research cores consists of recommendations and guide for selecting the appropriate forecasting method with regard to the prognostic criteria. Second thesis research core provides description and applicability of particle filtering framework suitable for model-based forecasting. Verification of their implementation and comparison is provided. The main research topic of the thesis provides a case study for a very actual Li-Ion battery health monitoring and prognostics with respect to continuous monitoring. The case study demonstrates the prognostic process based on the model and compares the possible approaches for estimating both the runtime and capacity fade. Proposed methodology is verified on real measured data.

    Circuit breaker prognostics using SF6 data

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    Control decisions within future energy networks may take account of the health and condition of network assets, pushing condition monitoring within the smart grid remit. In order to support maintenance decisions, this paper proposes a circuit breaker prognostic system, which ranks circuit breakers in order of maintenance priority. By monitoring the SF6 density within a breaker, the system not only predicts the number of days to a critical level, but also incorporates uncertainty by giving upper and lower bounds on the prediction. This prognostic model, which performs linear regression, will be described in this paper, along with case studies demonstrating ranking breakers based on maintenance priority and prognosis of a leaking breaker. Providing an asset manager with this type of information could allow improved management of his/her assets, potentially deferring maintenance to a time when an outage is already scheduled

    Analysis and evaluation of fragment size distributions in rock blasting at the Erdenet Mine

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    Master's Project (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2015Rock blasting is one of the most important operations in mining. It significantly affects the subsequent comminution processes and, therefore, is critical to successful mining productions. In this study, for the evaluation of the blasting performance at the Erdenet Mine, we analyzed rock fragment size distributions with the digital image processing method. The uniformities of rock fragments and the mean fragment sizes were determined and applied in the Kuz-Ram model. Statistical prediction models were also developed based on the field measured parameters. The results were compared with the Kuz-Ram model predictions and the digital image processing measurements. A total of twenty-eight images from eleven blasting patterns were processed, and rock size distributions were determined by Split-Desktop program in this study. Based on the rock mass and explosive properties and the blasting parameters, the rock fragment size distributions were also determined with the Kuz-Ram model and compared with the measurements by digital image processing. Furthermore, in order to improve the prediction of rock fragment size distributions at the mine, regression analyses were conducted and statistical models w ere developed for the estimation of the uniformity and characteristic size. The results indicated that there were discrepancies between the digital image measurements and those estimated by the Kuz-Ram model. The uniformity indices of image processing measurements varied from 0.76 to 1.90, while those estimate by the Kuz-Ram model were from 1.07 to 1.13. The mean fragment size of the Kuz-Ram model prediction was 97.59% greater than the mean fragment size of the image processing. The multivariate nonlinear regression analyses conducted in this study indicated that rock uniaxial compressive strength and elastic modulus, explosive energy input in the blasting, bench height to burden ratio and blast area per hole were significant predictor variables in determining the fragment characteristic size and the uniformity index. The regression models developed based on the above predictor variables showed much closer agreement with the measurements

    Nonstationary Stochastic Simulation of Strong Ground-Motion Time Histories : Application to the Japanese Database

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    For earthquake-resistant design, engineering seismologists employ time-history analysis for nonlinear simulations. The nonstationary stochastic method previously developed by Pousse et al. (2006) has been updated. This method has the advantage of being both simple, fast and taking into account the basic concepts of seismology (Brune's source, realistic time envelope function, nonstationarity and ground-motion variability). Time-domain simulations are derived from the signal spectrogram and depend on few ground-motion parameters: Arias intensity, significant relative duration and central frequency. These indicators are obtained from empirical attenuation equations that relate them to the magnitude of the event, the source-receiver distance, and the site conditions. We improve the nonstationary stochastic method by using new functional forms (new surface rock dataset, analysis of both intra-event and inter-event residuals, consideration of the scaling relations and VS30), by assessing the central frequency with S-transform and by better considering the stress drop variability.Comment: 10 pages; 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon : Portugal (2012

    Point process-based modeling of multiple debris flow landslides using INLA: an application to the 2009 Messina disaster

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    We develop a stochastic modeling approach based on spatial point processes of log-Gaussian Cox type for a collection of around 5000 landslide events provoked by a precipitation trigger in Sicily, Italy. Through the embedding into a hierarchical Bayesian estimation framework, we can use the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation methodology to make inference and obtain the posterior estimates. Several mapping units are useful to partition a given study area in landslide prediction studies. These units hierarchically subdivide the geographic space from the highest grid-based resolution to the stronger morphodynamic-oriented slope units. Here we integrate both mapping units into a single hierarchical model, by treating the landslide triggering locations as a random point pattern. This approach diverges fundamentally from the unanimously used presence-absence structure for areal units since we focus on modeling the expected landslide count jointly within the two mapping units. Predicting this landslide intensity provides more detailed and complete information as compared to the classically used susceptibility mapping approach based on relative probabilities. To illustrate the model's versatility, we compute absolute probability maps of landslide occurrences and check its predictive power over space. While the landslide community typically produces spatial predictive models for landslides only in the sense that covariates are spatially distributed, no actual spatial dependence has been explicitly integrated so far for landslide susceptibility. Our novel approach features a spatial latent effect defined at the slope unit level, allowing us to assess the spatial influence that remains unexplained by the covariates in the model
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