Hybrid Advanced Optimization Methods with Evolutionary Computation Techniques in Energy Forecasting

More accurate and precise energy demand forecasts are required when energy decisions are made in a competitive environment. Particularly in the Big Data era, forecasting models are always based on a complex function combination, and energy data are always complicated. Examples include seasonality, cyclicity, fluctuation, dynamic nonlinearity, and so on. These forecasting models have resulted in an over-reliance on the use of informal judgment and higher expenses when lacking the ability to determine data characteristics and patterns. The hybridization of optimization methods and superior evolutionary algorithms can provide important improvements via good parameter determinations in the optimization process, which is of great assistance to actions taken by energy decision-makers. This book aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, it sought contributions to the development of any hybrid optimization methods (e.g., quadratic programming techniques, chaotic mapping, fuzzy inference theory, quantum computing, etc.) with advanced algorithms (e.g., genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization algorithm, etc.) that have superior capabilities over the traditional optimization approaches to overcome some embedded drawbacks, and the application of these advanced hybrid approaches to significantly improve forecasting accuracy

Short-term forecasting of load and renewable energy using artifical neural network

Load forecasting is a technique used for the prediction of electrical load demands in battery management. In general, the aggregated level used for short-term electrical load forecasting (STLF) consists of either numerical or non-numerical information collected from multiple sources, which helps in obtaining accurate data and efficient forecasting. However, the aggregated level cannot precisely forecast the validation and testing phases of numerical data, including the real-time measurements of irradiance level (W/m2) and photovoltaic output power (W). Forecasting is also a challenge due to the fluctuations caused by the random usage of appliances in the existing weekly, diurnal, and annual cycle load data. In this study, we have overcome this challenge by using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methods such as Bayesian Regularisation (BR) and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithms. The STLF achieved by ANN-based methods can improve the forecast accuracy. The overall performance of the BR and LM algorithms were analyzed during the development phases of the ANN. The input layer, hidden layer and output layer used to train and test the ANN together predict the 24-hour electricity demand. The results show that utilizing the LM and BR algorithms delivers a highly efficient architecture for renewable power estimation demand. © 2021 Seventh Sense Research Group

Load forecast on a Micro Grid level through Machine Learning algorithms

As Micro Redes constituem um sector em crescimento da indústria energética, representando uma mudança de paradigma, desde as remotas centrais de geração até à produção mais localizada e distribuída. A capacidade de isolamento das principais redes elétricas e atuar de forma independente tornam as Micro Redes em sistemas resilientes, capazes de conduzir operações flexíveis em paralelo com a prestação de serviços que tornam a rede mais competitiva. Como tal, as Micro Redes fornecem energia limpa eficiente de baixo custo, aprimoram a coordenação dos ativos e melhoram a operação e estabilidade da rede regional de eletricidade, através da capacidade de resposta dinâmica aos recursos energéticos. Para isso, necessitam de uma coordenação de gestão inteligente que equilibre todas as tecnologias ao seu dispor. Daqui surge a necessidade de recorrer a modelos de previsão de carga e de produção robustos e de confiança, que interligam a alocação dos recursos da rede perante as necessidades emergentes. Sendo assim, foi desenvolvida a metodologia HALOFMI, que tem como principal objetivo a criação de um modelo de previsão de carga para 24 horas. A metodologia desenvolvida é constituída, numa primeira fase, por uma abordagem híbrida de multinível para a criação e escolha de atributos, que alimenta uma rede neuronal (Multi-Layer Perceptron) sujeita a um ajuste de híper-parâmetros. Posto isto, numa segunda fase são testados dois modos de aplicação e gestão de dados para a Micro Rede. A metodologia desenvolvida é aplicada em dois casos de estudo: o primeiro é composto por perfis de carga agregados correspondentes a dados de clientes em Baixa Tensão Normal e de Unidades de Produção e Autoconsumo (UPAC). Este caso de estudo apresenta-se como um perfil de carga elétrica regular e com contornos muito suaves. O segundo caso de estudo diz respeito a uma ilha turística e representa um perfil irregular de carga, com variações bruscas e difíceis de prever e apresenta um desafio maior em termos de previsão a 24-horas A partir dos resultados obtidos, é avaliado o impacto da integração de uma seleção recursiva inteligente de atributos, seguido por uma viabilização do processo de redução da dimensão de dados para o operador da Micro Rede, e por fim uma comparação de estimadores usados no modelo de previsão, através de medidores de erros na performance do algoritmo.Micro Grids constitute a growing sector of the energetic industry, representing a paradigm shift from the central power generation plans to a more distributed generation. The capacity to work isolated from the main electric grid make the MG resilient system, capable of conducting flexible operations while providing services that make the network more competitive. Additionally, Micro Grids supply clean and efficient low-cost energy, enhance the flexible assets coordination and improve the operation and stability of the of the local electric grid, through the capability of providing a dynamic response to the energetic resources. For that, it is required an intelligent coordination which balances all the available technologies. With this, rises the need to integrate accurate and robust load and production forecasting models into the MG management platform, thus allowing a more precise coordination of the flexible resource according to the emerging demand needs. For these reasons, the HALOFMI methodology was developed, which focus on the creation of a precise 24-hour load forecast model. This methodology includes firstly, a hybrid multi-level approach for the creation and selection of features. Then, these inputs are fed to a Neural Network (Multi-Layer Perceptron) with hyper-parameters tuning. In a second phase, two ways of data operation are compared and assessed, which results in the viability of the network operating with a reduced number of training days without compromising the model's performance. Such process is attained through a sliding window application. Furthermore, the developed methodology is applied in two case studies, both with 15-minute timesteps: the first one is composed by aggregated load profiles of Standard Low Voltage clients, including production and self-consumption units. This case study presents regular and very smooth load profile curves. The second case study concerns a touristic island and represents an irregular load curve with high granularity with abrupt variations. From the attained results, it is evaluated the impact of integrating a recursive intelligent feature selection routine, followed by an assessment on the sliding window application and at last, a comparison on the errors coming from different estimators for the model, through several well-defined performance metrics

Analysis and Forecast of Railway Freight Volume based on Prophet-Deep AR Model

The research on railway freight volume forecast is of great significance to the allocation of railway freight transport resources, the formulation of transport plans and the organization of railway freight transport. This study, by fully mining the railway freight ticket data information, put forward the precise forecast model of railway freight volume under different types of freight. Firstly, the railway freight ticket data are cleaned, regulated and integrated, and the time series of the daily number of railway freight trains are constructed, get the trend, periodicity and holiday data of railway traffic data, and set the parameters of Chinese holidays and rest days according to the demand characteristics of different categories. Secondly, the forecasting result of the Prophet is taken as a cooperative parameter. DeepAR is used to forecast, and a combined model of the Prophet-DeepAR is constructed. Finally, the combined model was validated with Shanghai Railway Bureau data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2018 for the food and tobacco category, and with Prophet-DeepAR, LSTM, Wavelet, BILSTM, and Prophet-LSTM, prophet-wavelet and Prophet-Bilstm are used to compare the prediction results. The results show that the Prophet-DeepAR model can extract the multi-dimensional periodicity of freight traffic and mine the trend information of freight traffic, and get the prediction result with high precision. It has better accuracy than other models

Situation Awareness for Smart Distribution Systems

In recent years, the global climate has become variable due to intensification of the greenhouse effect, and natural disasters are frequently occurring, which poses challenges to the situation awareness of intelligent distribution networks. Aside from the continuous grid connection of distributed generation, energy storage and new energy generation not only reduces the power supply pressure of distribution network to a certain extent but also brings new consumption pressure and load impact. Situation awareness is a technology based on the overall dynamic insight of environment and covering perception, understanding, and prediction. Such means have been widely used in security, intelligence, justice, intelligent transportation, and other fields and gradually become the research direction of digitization and informatization in the future. We hope this Special Issue represents a useful contribution. We present 10 interesting papers that cover a wide range of topics all focused on problems and solutions related to situation awareness for smart distribution systems. We sincerely hope the papers included in this Special Issue will inspire more researchers to further develop situation awareness for smart distribution systems. We strongly believe that there is a need for more work to be carried out, and we hope this issue provides a useful open-access platform for the dissemination of new ideas

Pattern Classification and PSO Optimal Weights Based Sky Images Cloud Motion Speed Calculation Method for Solar PV Power Forecasting

The motion of cloud over a photovoltaic (PV) power station will directly cause the change of solar irradiance, which indirectly affects the prediction of minute-level PV power. Therefore, the calculation of cloud motion speed is very crucial for PV power forecasting. However, due to the influence of complex cloud motion process, it is very difficult to achieve accurate result using a single traditional algorithm. In order to improve the computation accuracy, a pattern classification and particle swarm optimization optimal weights based sky images cloud motion speed calculation method for solar PV power forecasting (PCPOW) is proposed. The method consists of two parts. First, we use a k-means clustering method and texture features based on a gray-level co-occurrence matrix to classify the clouds. Second, for different cloud classes, we build the corresponding combined calculation model to obtain cloud motion speed. Real data recorded at Yunnan Electric Power Research Institute are used for simulation; the results show that the cloud classification and optimal combination model are effective, and the PCPOW can improve the accuracy of displacement calculation.© 2019 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed