Valuation of timberland under price uncertainty

In the first essay, a critical examination of three commonly used stochastic price processes is presented. Each process is described and rejected as a possible model of lumber futures prices. A mean reverting generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, developed by Bollerslev (1986), is proposed as a stochastic process for lumber futures prices. The essay provides the steps that should be taken to ensure that a proper price process is used in each application. In the second essay, a flexible harvesting strategy known as the reservation price strategy is presented. When the current price is below the reservation price, the forest owner delays the harvest. An optimal stopping model is used to derive an expression for the optimal sequence of reservation prices under price uncertainty. A solution method using a Monte Carlo backward recursion algorithm is presented. The Monte Carlo simulation procedure may be applied when analytical solutions are difficult or intractable. In the third essay, a simulation model is used to estimate the per acre value of land devoted to timber production under different harvesting strategies, stumpage price processes, and site qualities. By following the reservation price strategy, forest owners can increase the expected prots from timber harvesting and reduce the variability in profits from timber harvesting relative to a fixed rotation strategy. For an estimated mean reverting GARCH process, the reservation price strategy increases the value of timberland by 33.0 percent for a site index of 90 and by 22.1 percent for a site index of 60 relative to a fixed rotation strategy

The Relationship Between Risk Attitudes and Heuristics in Search Tasks: A Laboratory Experiment

Experimental studies of search behavior suggest that individuals stop searching earlier than predicted by the optimal, risk-neutral stopping rule. Such behavior could be generated by two different classes of decision rules: rules that are optimal conditional on utility functions departing from risk neutrality, or heuristics derived from limited cognitive processing capacities and satisfycing. To discriminate among these two possibilities, we conduct an experiment that consists of a standard search task as well as a lottery task designed to elicit utility functions. We find that search heuristics are not related to measures of risk aversion, but to measures of loss aversion

Are Consumers Fooled by Discounts? An Experimental Test in a Consumer Search Environment

In this paper we investigate experimentally if people search optimally and how price promotions influence search behavior. We implement a sequential search task with exogenous price dispersion in a baseline treatment and introduce discounts in two experimental treatments. We find that search behavior is roughly consistent with optimal search but also observe some discount biases. If subjects don't know in advance where discounts are offered the purchase probability is increased by 19 percentage points in shops with discounts, even after controlling for the benefit of the discount and for risk preferences. If consumers know in advance where discounts are given then the bias is only weakly significant and much smaller (7 percentage points).Consumer Search Theory, Search Cost, Price Promotion

Price dynamics and shake-outs in electronic markets

This paper presents a model that explains the recent evolution of e-commerce, where over time, prices can increase if no exit occurs, or decrease, if exit occurs. In the model there is uncertainty about the firms' costs, because the technology is new, and consumers face a switching cost, because it is easier to observe the current price of a previous supplier, than the price of other firms

How Do Behavioral Assumptions Affect Structural Inference? Evidence From A Laboratory Experiment

We use a laboratory experiment to investigate the effect that assuming rational expectations has on structural inference in a dynamic discrete choice decision problem. Our experimental design induces preferences up to each subject’s subjective rates of time preference, leaving unrestricted only this parameter and the decision rule that the subject uses in solving the problem. We analyze the data under the assumption that all subjects use the rational expectations decision rule, and also under weaker behavioral assumptions that allow for heterogeneity in the way people form decisions. We find no evidence that assuming rational expectations distorts inferences about the cross-sectional distribution of discount rates.

Time preference and decision rules in a price search experiment

Structural econometric methods that assume agents have rational expectations are often criticized. Yet, little is known about the relative costs and benefits of adopting alternative empirical strategies. This paper compares three procedures for inference about a single structural parameter using data from a laboratory price search experiment. Our novel experimental design induces preferences up to the subjective rate of time preference, leaving unrestricted only this parameter and the decision rule that subjects use in solving the search task. We analyze the experimental data under the assumptions of both rational expectations and heuristic behavior, and we also draw inferences using a simple revealed preference analysis that does not require strong behavioral assumptions. We find that the revealed-preference analysis does not provide much information about the discount rate, while the two specifications with stronger behavioral assumptions provide sharper and statistically identical inferences about the population's discount rate distribution. However, substantial differences in inference appear at the individual level. We compare the individual discount-rate estimates to an external measure of forward looking behavior obtained for each subject using an instrument validated in the psychology literature. The estimates obtained under heuristic behavior are statistically significantly positively correlated with our external measure of time preference, while the estimates obtained under rational expectations and the revealed-preference estimates are not.

The Relationship Between Risk Attitudes and Heuristics in Search Tasks: A Laboratory Experiment

The existing evidence from laboratory experiments suggests that relatively simple heuristics describe observed search behavior better than the optimal stopping rule derived under risk neutrality. Such behavior could be generated by two entirely different classes of decision rules: (i) rules that are optimal conditional on utility functions that depart from risk neutrality or (ii) heuristics that derive from limited cognitive processing capacities and satisfycing. In this paper, we develop and test search models that depart from the standard assumption of risk neutrality in order to distinguish these two possibilities. In our experiment, we present subjects not only with a standard search task, but also with a series of lottery tasks that serve to elicit the shape of their utility functions. We do not find a relationship between behavior in the search task and measures of risk aversion. Our data suggest, however, that loss aversion is important for explaining search behavior.

The Relationship Between Risk Attitudes and Heuristics in Search Tasks: A Laboratory Experiment

Experimental studies of search behavior suggest that individuals stop searching earlier than predicted by the optimal, risk-neutral stopping rule. Such behavior could be generated by two different classes of decision rules: rules that are optimal conditional on utility functions departing from risk neutrality, or heuristics derived from limited cognitive processing capacities and satisfycing. To discriminate among these two possibilities, we conduct an experiment that consists of a standard search task as well as a lottery task designed to elicit utility functions. We find that search heuristics are not related to measures of risk aversion, but to measures of loss aversion.search; heuristics; utility function elicitation; risk attitudes; prospect theory