Dimension Reduction for Origin-Destination Flow Estimation: Blind Estimation Made Possible

This paper studies the problem of estimating origin-destination (OD) flows from link flows. As the number of link flows is typically much less than that of OD flows, the inverse problem is severely ill-posed and hence prior information is required to recover the ground truth. The basic approach in the literature relies on a forward model where the so called traffic assignment matrix maps OD flows to link flows. Due to the ill-posedness of the problem, prior information on the assignment matrix and OD flows are typically needed. The main contributions of this paper include a dimension reduction of the inquired flows from $O(n^2)$ to $O(n)$, and a demonstration that for the first time the ground truth OD flows can be uniquely identified with no or little prior information. To cope with the ill-posedness due to the large number of unknowns, a new forward model is developed which does not involve OD flows directly but is built upon the flows characterized only by their origins, henceforth referred as O-flows. The new model preserves all the OD information and more importantly reduces the dimension of the inverse problem substantially. A Gauss-Seidel method is deployed to solve the inverse problem, and a necessary condition for the uniqueness of the solution is proved. Simulations demonstrate that blind estimation where no prior information is available is possible for some network settings. Some challenging network settings are identified and discussed, where a remedy based on temporal patterns of the O-flows is developed and numerically shown effective

Statistical Traffic State Analysis in Large-scale Transportation Networks Using Locality-Preserving Non-negative Matrix Factorization

Statistical traffic data analysis is a hot topic in traffic management and control. In this field, current research progresses focus on analyzing traffic flows of individual links or local regions in a transportation network. Less attention are paid to the global view of traffic states over the entire network, which is important for modeling large-scale traffic scenes. Our aim is precisely to propose a new methodology for extracting spatio-temporal traffic patterns, ultimately for modeling large-scale traffic dynamics, and long-term traffic forecasting. We attack this issue by utilizing Locality-Preserving Non-negative Matrix Factorization (LPNMF) to derive low-dimensional representation of network-level traffic states. Clustering is performed on the compact LPNMF projections to unveil typical spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of network-level traffic states. We have tested the proposed method on simulated traffic data generated for a large-scale road network, and reported experimental results validate the ability of our approach for extracting meaningful large-scale space-time traffic patterns. Furthermore, the derived clustering results provide an intuitive understanding of spatial-temporal characteristics of traffic flows in the large-scale network, and a basis for potential long-term forecasting.Comment: IET Intelligent Transport Systems (2013

Diffusion Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network: Data-Driven Traffic Forecasting

Spatiotemporal forecasting has various applications in neuroscience, climate and transportation domain. Traffic forecasting is one canonical example of such learning task. The task is challenging due to (1) complex spatial dependency on road networks, (2) non-linear temporal dynamics with changing road conditions and (3) inherent difficulty of long-term forecasting. To address these challenges, we propose to model the traffic flow as a diffusion process on a directed graph and introduce Diffusion Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network (DCRNN), a deep learning framework for traffic forecasting that incorporates both spatial and temporal dependency in the traffic flow. Specifically, DCRNN captures the spatial dependency using bidirectional random walks on the graph, and the temporal dependency using the encoder-decoder architecture with scheduled sampling. We evaluate the framework on two real-world large scale road network traffic datasets and observe consistent improvement of 12% - 15% over state-of-the-art baselines.Comment: Published as a conference paper at ICLR 201

Applications of sensitivity analysis for probit stochastic network equilibrium

Network equilibrium models are widely used by traffic practitioners to aid them in making decisions concerning the operation and management of traffic networks. The common practice is to test a prescribed range of hypothetical changes or policy measures through adjustments to the input data, namely the trip demands, the arc performance (travel time) functions, and policy variables such as tolls or signal timings. Relatively little use is, however, made of the full implicit relationship between model inputs and outputs inherent in these models. By exploiting the representation of such models as an equivalent optimisation problem, classical results on the sensitivity analysis of non-linear programs may be applied, to produce linear relationships between input data perturbations and model outputs. We specifically focus on recent results relating to the probit Stochastic User Equilibrium (PSUE) model, which has the advantage of greater behavioural realism and flexibility relative to the conventional Wardrop user equilibrium and logit SUE models. The paper goes on to explore four applications of these sensitivity expressions in gaining insight into the operation of road traffic networks. These applications are namely: identification of sensitive, ‘critical’ parameters; computation of approximate, re-equilibrated solutions following a change (post-optimisation); robustness analysis of model forecasts to input data errors, in the form of confidence interval estimation; and the solution of problems of the bi-level, optimal network design variety. Finally, numerical experiments applying these methods are reported

Network tomography for integer-valued traffic

A classic network tomography problem is estimation of properties of the distribution of route traffic volumes based on counts taken on the network links. We consider inference for a general class of models for integer-valued traffic. Model identifiability is examined. We investigate both maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods of estimation. In practice, these must be implemented using stochastic EM and MCMC approaches. This requires a methodology for sampling latent route flows conditional on the observed link counts. We show that existing algorithms for doing so can fail entirely, because inflexibility in the choice of sampling directions can leave the sampler trapped at a vertex of the convex polytope that describes the feasible set of route flows. We prove that so long as the network's link-path incidence matrix is totally unimodular, it is always possible to select a coordinate system representation of the polytope for which sampling parallel to the axes is adequate. This motivates a modified sampler in which the representation of the polytope adapts to provide good mixing behavior. This methodology is applied to three road traffic data sets. We conclude with a discussion of the ramifications of the unimodularity requirements for the routing matrix.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS805 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Non-recurrent Traffic Congestion Detection with a Coupled Scalable Bayesian Robust Tensor Factorization Model

Non-recurrent traffic congestion (NRTC) usually brings unexpected delays to commuters. Hence, it is critical to accurately detect and recognize the NRTC in a real-time manner. The advancement of road traffic detectors and loop detectors provides researchers with a large-scale multivariable temporal-spatial traffic data, which allows the deep research on NRTC to be conducted. However, it remains a challenging task to construct an analytical framework through which the natural spatial-temporal structural properties of multivariable traffic information can be effectively represented and exploited to better understand and detect NRTC. In this paper, we present a novel analytical training-free framework based on coupled scalable Bayesian robust tensor factorization (Coupled SBRTF). The framework can couple multivariable traffic data including traffic flow, road speed, and occupancy through sharing a similar or the same sparse structure. And, it naturally captures the high-dimensional spatial-temporal structural properties of traffic data by tensor factorization. With its entries revealing the distribution and magnitude of NRTC, the shared sparse structure of the framework compasses sufficiently abundant information about NRTC. While the low-rank part of the framework, expresses the distribution of general expected traffic condition as an auxiliary product. Experimental results on real-world traffic data show that the proposed method outperforms coupled Bayesian robust principal component analysis (coupled BRPCA), the rank sparsity tensor decomposition (RSTD), and standard normal deviates (SND) in detecting NRTC. The proposed method performs even better when only traffic data in weekdays are utilized, and hence can provide more precise estimation of NRTC for daily commuters

Traffic state estimation using stochastic Lagrangian dynamics

This paper proposes a new stochastic model of traffic dynamics in Lagrangian coordinates. The source of uncertainty is heterogeneity in driving behavior, captured using driver-specific speed-spacing relations, i.e., parametric uncertainty. It also results in smooth vehicle trajectories in a stochastic context, which is in agreement with real-world traffic dynamics and, thereby, overcoming issues with aggressive oscillation typically observed in sample paths of stochastic traffic flow models. We utilize ensemble filtering techniques for data assimilation (traffic state estimation), but derive the mean and covariance dynamics as the ensemble sizes go to infinity, thereby bypassing the need to sample from the parameter distributions while estimating the traffic states. As a result, the estimation algorithm is just a standard Kalman-Bucy algorithm, which renders the proposed approach amenable to real-time applications using recursive data. Data assimilation examples are performed and our results indicate good agreement with out-of-sample data

State-dependent Priority Scheduling for Networked Control Systems

Networked control systems (NCS) have attracted considerable attention in recent years. While the stabilizability and optimal control of NCS for a given communication system has already been studied extensively, the design of the communication system for NCS has recently seen an increase in more thorough investigation. In this paper, we address an optimal scheduling problem for a set of NCS sharing a dedicated communication channel, providing performance bounds and asymptotic stability. We derive a suboptimal scheduling policy with dynamic state-based priorities calculated at the sensors, which are then used for stateless priority queuing in the network, making it both scalable and efficient to implement on routers or multi-layer switches. These properties are beneficial towards leveraging existing IP networks for control, which will be a crucial factor for the proliferation of wide-area NCS applications. By allowing for an arbitrary number of concurrent transmissions, we are able to investigate the relationship between available bandwidth, transmission rate, and delay. To demonstrate the feasibility of our approach, we provide a proof-of-concept implementation of the priority scheduler using real networking hardware.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication at 2017 American Control Conference (ACC

Learning Probabilistic Trajectory Models of Aircraft in Terminal Airspace from Position Data

Models for predicting aircraft motion are an important component of modern aeronautical systems. These models help aircraft plan collision avoidance maneuvers and help conduct offline performance and safety analyses. In this article, we develop a method for learning a probabilistic generative model of aircraft motion in terminal airspace, the controlled airspace surrounding a given airport. The method fits the model based on a historical dataset of radar-based position measurements of aircraft landings and takeoffs at that airport. We find that the model generates realistic trajectories, provides accurate predictions, and captures the statistical properties of aircraft trajectories. Furthermore, the model trains quickly, is compact, and allows for efficient real-time inference.Comment: IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation System

A Comprehensive Survey on Graph Neural Networks

Deep learning has revolutionized many machine learning tasks in recent years, ranging from image classification and video processing to speech recognition and natural language understanding. The data in these tasks are typically represented in the Euclidean space. However, there is an increasing number of applications where data are generated from non-Euclidean domains and are represented as graphs with complex relationships and interdependency between objects. The complexity of graph data has imposed significant challenges on existing machine learning algorithms. Recently, many studies on extending deep learning approaches for graph data have emerged. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive overview of graph neural networks (GNNs) in data mining and machine learning fields. We propose a new taxonomy to divide the state-of-the-art graph neural networks into four categories, namely recurrent graph neural networks, convolutional graph neural networks, graph autoencoders, and spatial-temporal graph neural networks. We further discuss the applications of graph neural networks across various domains and summarize the open source codes, benchmark data sets, and model evaluation of graph neural networks. Finally, we propose potential research directions in this rapidly growing field.Comment: Minor revision (updated tables and references