Enhanced processing of 1-km spatial resolution fAPAR time series for sugarcane yield forecasting and monitoring

A processing of remotely-sensed Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR) time series at 1-km spatial resolution is established to estimate sugarcane yield over the state of São Paulo, Brazil. It includes selecting adequate time series according to the signal spatial purity, using thermal time instead of calendar time and smoothing temporally the irregularly sampled observations. A systematic construction of various metrics and their capacity to predict yield is explored to identify the best performance, and see how timely the yield forecast can be made. The resulting dataset not only reveals a strong spatio-temporal structure, but is also capable of detecting both absolute changes in biomass accumulation and changes in its inter-annual variability. Sugarcane yield can thus be estimated with a RMSE of 1.5 t/ha (or 2%) without taking into account the strong linear trend in yield increase witnessed in the past decade. Including the trend reduces the error to 0.6 t/ha, correctly predicting whether the yield in a given year is above or below the trend in 90% of cases. The methodological framework presented here could be applied beyond the specific case of sugarcane in São Paulo, namely to other crops in other agro-ecological landscapes, to enhance current systems for monitoring agriculture or forecasting yield using remote sensing.JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource

A Review of Vegetation Phenological Metrics Extraction Using Time-Series, Multispectral Satellite Data

Vegetation dynamics and phenology play an important role in inter-annual vegetation changes in terrestrial ecosystems and are key indicators of climate-vegetation interactions, land use/land cover changes, and variation in year-to-year vegetation productivity. Satellite remote sensing data have been widely used for vegetation phenology monitoring over large geographic domains using various types of observations and methods over the past several decades. The goal of this paper is to present a detailed review of existing methods for phenology detection and emerging new techniques based on the analysis of time-series, multispectral remote sensing imagery. This paper summarizes the objective and applications of detecting general vegetation phenology stages (e.g., green onset, time or peak greenness, and growing season length) often termed “land surface phenology,” as well as more advanced methods that estimate species-specific phenological stages (e.g., silking stage of maize). Common data-processing methods, such as data smoothing, applied to prepare the time-series remote sensing observations to be applied to phenological detection methods are presented. Specific land surface phenology detection methods as well as species-specific phenology detection methods based on multispectral satellite data are then discussed. The impact of different error sources in the data on remote-sensing based phenology detection are also discussed in detail, as well as ways to reduce these uncertainties and errors. Joint analysis of multiscale observations ranging from satellite to more recent ground-based sensors is helpful for us to understand satellite-based phenology detection mechanism and extent phenology detection to regional scale in the future. Finally, emerging opportunities to further advance remote sensing of phenology is presented that includes observations from Cubesats, near-surface observations such as PhenoCams, and image data fusion techniques to improve the spatial resolution of time-series image data sets needed for phenological characterization

Combining Crop Models and Remote Sensing for Yield Prediction: Concepts, Applications and Challenges for Heterogeneous Smallholder Environments

JRC, CCAFS jointly sponsored the workshop on June 13-14, 2012, at the JRC in Ispra, Italy, to identify avenues for exploiting remote sensing information to improving crop forecasting in smallholder farming environments. The workshop’s objectives were: 1) To advance the state-of-knowledge of data assimilation for crop yield forecasting; 2) To address challenges and needs for successful applications of data assimilation in forecasting crop yields in heterogeneous, smallholder environments; and, 3) To enhance collaboration and exchange of knowledge among data assimilation and crop forecasting groups. The workshop succeeded in bringing together scientists from around the world. This has enabled discussions on research and results and has greatly enhanced collaboration and exchange of knowledge, especially about data assimilation and crop forecasting

Sources of Atmospheric Fine Particles and Adsorbed Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Syracuse, New York

Land surface temperature (LST) images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor have been widely utilized across scientific disciplines for a variety of purposes. The goal of this dissertation was to utilize MODIS LST for three spatial modeling applications within the conterminous United States (CONUS). These topics broadly encompassed agriculture and human health. The first manuscript compared the performance of all methods previously used to interpolate missing values in 8-day MODIS LST images. At low cloud cover (\u3c30%), the Spline spatial method outperformed all of the temporal and spatiotemporal methods by a wide margin, with median absolute errors (MAEs) ranging from 0.2°C-0.6°C. However, the Weiss spatiotemporal method generally performed best at greater cloud cover, with MAEs ranging from 0.3°C-1.2°C. Considering the distribution of cloud contamination and difficulty of implementing Weiss, using Spline under all conditions for simplicity would be sufficient. The second manuscript compared the corn yield predictive capability across the US Corn Belt of a novel killing degree day metric (LST KDD), computed with daily MODIS LST, and a traditional air temperature-based metric (Tair KDD). LST KDD was capable of predicting annual corn yield with considerably less error than Tair KDD (R2 /RMSE of 0.65/15.3 Bu/Acre vs. 0.56/17.2 Bu/Acre). The superior performance can be attributed to LST’s ability to better reflect evaporative cooling and water stress. Moreover, these findings suggest that long-term yield projections based on Tair and precipitation alone will contain error, especially for years of extreme drought. Finally, the third manuscript assessed the extent to which daily maximum heat index (HI) across the CONUS can be estimated by MODIS multispectral imagery in conjunction with land cover, topographic, and locational factors. The derived model was capable of estimating HI in 2012 with an acceptable level of error (R 2 = 0.83, RMSE = 4.4°F). LST and water vapor (WV) were, by far, the most important variables for estimation. Expanding this analytical framework to a more extensive study area (both temporally and spatially) would further validate these findings. Moreover, identifying an appropriate interpolation and downscaling approach for daily MODIS imagery would substantially increase the utility of the corn yield and HI models

Combining Crop Models and Remote Sensing for Yield Prediction: Concepts, Applications and Challenges for Heterogeneous Smallholder Environments

JRC and CCAFS jointly organized a workshop on June 13-14, 2012 in Ispra, Italy with the aim to advance the state-of-knowledge of data assimilation for crop yield forecasting in general, to address challenges and needs for successful applications of data assimilation in forecasting crop yields in heterogeneous, smallholder environments, and to enhance collaboration and exchange of knowledge among data assimilation and crop forecasting groups. The workshop showed that advances made in crop science are widely applicable to crop forecasting. The presentations of the participants approached the challenge from many sides, leading to ideas for improvement that can be implemented in real-time, operational crop yield forecasting. When applied, this knowledge has the potential to benefit the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in the developing world.JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource

Land Surface Monitoring Based on Satellite Imagery

This book focuses attention on significant novel approaches developed to monitor land surface by exploiting satellite data in the infrared and visible ranges. Unlike in situ measurements, satellite data provide global coverage and higher temporal resolution, with very accurate retrievals of land parameters. This is fundamental in the study of climate change and global warming. The authors offer an overview of different methodologies to retrieve land surface parameters— evapotranspiration, emissivity contrast and water deficit indices, land subsidence, leaf area index, vegetation height, and crop coefficient—all of which play a significant role in the study of land cover, land use, monitoring of vegetation and soil water stress, as well as early warning and detection of forest fires and drought

Remote sensing based assessment of land cover and soil moisture in the Kilombero floodplain in Tanzania

Wetlands provide important ecological, biological, and social-economic services that are critical for human existence. The increasing demand for food, arable land shortage and changing climate conditions in East Africa have created a paradigm shift from upland cultivation to wetland use due to their year-round soil water availability. However, there is need to control and manage the activities within the wetlands to ensure sustainable use while negating any negative effects caused by these activities. This is implemented through the decisions made by the land managers within the wetlands. Providing the users of the wetlands with scientific knowledge acts as a support tool for policy-making geared towards the sustainable use of the wetlands. The overall research contains two main components: First, the need for timely land cover maps at a reasonable scale, and secondly, the assessment of soil moisture as a major contributor to agricultural production. The objectives of the study were to generate land cover maps from multi-sensor optical datasets and to assess the performance of single-polarized Sentinel-1 Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) texture and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) features by applying multiple classification algorithms in a floodplain in the Kilombero catchment. Furthermore, soil moisture spatial-temporal patterns over three hydrological zones was assessed, estimation of soil moisture from radar data and generation of soil moisture products from global products was investigated. The correlation of the merged products to Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) measures was also investigated. RapidEye, Sentinel-2 and Landsat images were used in determining the areal extents of four major land cover classes namely vegetated, bare, water and built up. The acquisition period of the images ranges from August 2013 to June 2015 for the RapidEye images, December 2015 to August 2016 for the Sentinel-2 images and 2013 to 2016 Landsat-8 images were included in the land cover time series dynamic study. However, the major challenge arising was cloud coverage and hence Sentinel-1 images were tested in the application of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) in wetland mapping. Variograms were used in spatial-temporal assessment of soil moisture data collected from three hydrological zones, riparian, middle and fringe. A roughness parameter was derived from a semi-empirical model. Soil moisture was retrieved from TerraSAR-X and RadarSAT-2 with the retrieved roughness parameter as an input in a linear regression equation. Triple collocation was applied in error assessment of the global soil moisture products prior to development of a merged product. Cross-correlation was applied in relating NDVI to soil moisture. Optical data (RapidEye, Landsat-8, and Sentinel-2) generated land cover maps used in assessing the land cover dynamics over time. The land cover ratios were related to depth to groundwater. As the depth to groundwater reduced in June the bare land coverage was 45-57% while that of vegetation was 34-47%. In December when the depth to groundwater was highest, bare land coverage was 62-69% while that of the vegetated area was 27-25%. This indicates that depth of groundwater and vegetation coverage responds to seasonality. During the dry season, 68-81% of the total vegetation class is within the riparian zone. In the classification of the SAR images, the overall accuracies for the single polarized VV images ranged from 54-76%, 60-81% and 61-80% for Random Forest (RF), Neural Network (NN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) respectively. GLCM features had overall accuracies of 64-86%, 65-88% and 65-86% for RF, NN, and SVM respectively. PCA derived images had similar overall accuracies of 68-92% for NN, RF, and SVM respectively. The PCA images had the highest overall accuracy for the entire time series indicating that reduction in the number of texture features to layers containing the maximum variance improves the accuracy. The standard deviation of soil moisture was noted to increase with increasing soil moisture. Soil texture plays a key role in soil moisture retention. The riparian fields had a high water content explained by the high clay and organic matter content. A roughness parameter was derived and utilized in the retrieval of soil moisture from SAR resulting to R2 of 0.88- 0.92 between observed and simulated soil moisture values from co-polarized RadarSAT-2 HH and TerraSAR-X HH and VV. Merged soil moisture product from FEWSNET Land Data Assimilation System_NOAH (FLDAS_NOAH), ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and FLDAS_Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), ERA-Interim and SMOS had similar patterns attributed to FLDAS_NOAH and FLDAS_VIC forced by the same precipitation product (RFE). Cross-correlation of Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) NDVI and the merged soil moisture products revealed a 2-month lag of NDVI. Hence, the relationship is useful in determining the Start of Season from soil moisture products. In conclusion, the successful land cover mapping of the study area demonstrated the use of satellite imagery for wetland characterization. The vast coverage and frequent acquisitions of optical and microwave remotely sensed data additionally make the approaches transferable to other locations and allow for mapping at larger scales. Soil moisture assessment from point data revealed varied soil moisture patterns whereas global remotely sensed and modeled products rather provide complementary information about growing conditions, and hence a situational assessment tool of potential of physical availability dimension of food security. This study forms a baseline upon which additional monitoring and assessment of the Kilombero wetland ecosystem can be performed with the current results marked as a reference. Moreover, the study serves as a demonstration case of remote sensing based approaches for land cover and soil moisture mapping, whose results are useful to stakeholders to aid in the implementation of adapted production techniques for yield optimization while minimizing the unsustainable use of the natural resources.Feuchtgebiete erbringen wichtige ökologische, biologische und sozial-ökonomische Dienstleistungen, welche entscheidend für das menschliche Dasein sind. Der steigende Bedarf an Nahrung, der Mangel an landwirtschaftlichen Nutzflächen und die Veränderung der klimatischen Bedingungen in Ostafrika haben zu einem Paradigmenwechsel vom Anbau im Hochland hin zur Nutzung von Feuchtgebieten geführt. Allerdings sind Kontrolle und Management der Aktivitäten in Feuchtgebieten notwendig, um die nachhaltige Nutzung zu sichern und negative Effekte dieser Aktivitäten zu vermeiden. Die Implementierung erfolgt durch die Landverwalter in den Feuchtgebieten. Den Nutzern von Feuchtgebieten wissenschaftliche Erkenntnisse bereitzustellen dient als Hilfsmittel zur politischen Entscheidungsfindung für die nachhaltige Feuchtgebietsnutzung. Die Forschung im Rahmen der Dissertation beinhaltet zwei Hauptkomponenten: erstens den Bedarf an aktuellen Landbedeckungskarten auf einer angemessenen Skalenebene und zweitens die Erfassung der Bodenfeuchte als wichtiger Einflussfaktor auf die landwirtschaftliche Produktion. Das Ziel der Untersuchung war, Landbedeckungskarten auf Grundlage von multisensorischen optischen Daten zu erstellen und die Eignung der Textur der einfach polarisierten Sentinel-1 Grauwertmatrix (GLCM) sowie der einer Hauptkomponentenanalyse (PCA) bei Anwendung unterschiedlicher Klassifikationsalgorithmen zu beurteilen. Des Weiteren wurden raum-zeitliche Bodenfeuchtemuster über drei hydrologische Zonen hinweg modelliert, die Bodenfeuchte aus Radardaten abgeleitet sowie die Erstellung von Bodenfeuchteprodukten auf Basis von globalen Produkten untersucht. Die Korrelation der Bodenfeuchteprodukte mit dem Normalisierten Differenzierten Vegetationsindex (NDVI) wurde ebenfalls analysiert. RapidEye, Sentinel-2 und Landsat Bilder wurden genutzt um die räumliche Ausdehnung der vier Hauptklassen (Vegetation, freiliegender Boden, Wasser und Bebauung) der Landbedeckung zu ermitteln. Für die Zeitreihenanalyse der der Landbedeckungsdynamik wurden RapidEye-Daten von August 2013 bis Juni 2015, Sentinel-2-Bilder von Dezember 2015 bis August 2016 und Landsat-8-Bilder von 2013 bis 2016 verwendet. Die größte Herausforderung war jedoch die Wolkenbedeckung, weshalb die Anwendung von Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) für die Feuchtgebietskartierung getestet wurde. Die gemessene Bodenfeuchte wurde mittels Variogrammen für die drei hydrologischen Zonen (Uferzone, Mitte und Randgebiete) raum-zeitlich interpoliert. Ein Rauhigkeitsparameter wurde aus einem semi-empirischen Modell hergeleitet. Die Bodenfeuchte wurde aus TerraSAR-X und RadarSAT-2- Bildern unter Verwendung des Rauhigkeitsparameters als Eingangsgröße in einer linearen Regression abgeleitet. Vor der Zusammenführung der Produkte wurde das globale Bodenfeuchteprodukt mithilfe von dreifacher Kollokation auf Fehler überprüft. Die Kreuzkorrelation zwischen NDVI und Bodenfeuchte wurde berechnet. Optische Daten (RapidEye, Landsat-8 und Sentinel-2) wurden genutzt, um die zeitliche Dynamik der Landbedeckung zu bestimmen. Die Landbedeckungsverhältnisse wurde mit der Höhe des Grundwasserspiegels korreliert. Ein hoher Grundwasserstand im Juni resultierte in 45-57% unbedecktem Boden, während der Anteil der Vegetation 34-47% betrug. Im Dezember, als der Grundwasserspiegel seinen Tiefststand hatte, erhöhte sich der Anteil des freiliegenden Bodens auf 62-69% und der Anteil der Vegetation verringerte sich auf 27-25%. Das zeigt, dass Grundwasserspiegel und Vegetation saisonalen Schwankungen unterworfen sind. Während der Trockenzeit liegen 68-81% der gesamten als Vegetation klassifizierten Fläche innerhalb der Uferzone. In der Klassifikation der SAR-Bilder liegt die Gesamtgenauigkeit der einfach polarisierten VV-Bilder im Rahmen von 54-76%, 60-81% und 61-80%, entsprechend für Random Forest (RF), Neuronale Netze (NN) und Support Vector Machine (SVM). Die GLCM ergab eine Gesamtgenauigkeit von 64-86%, 65-88% und 65-86% für RF, NN und SVM. Die über eine PCA abgeleiteten Bilder erreichten eine ähnliche Genauigkeit von 68-92% für NN, RF und SVM. Die PCA-Bilder weisen die höchste Gesamtgenauigkeit der gesamten Zeitreihe auf, was darauf hinweist, dass eine Reduktion von Textureigenschaften auf Layer der maximalen Varianz enthalten, die Genauigkeit erhöht. Die Standardabweichung der Bodenfeuchte stieg mit zunehmender Bodenfeuchte. Die Bodentextur spielt dabei eine Schlüsselrolle für das Wasserhaltevermögen des Bodens. Die Uferzone wies einen hohen Wassergehalt auf, was durch den hohen Anteil von Ton und Humus zu erklären ist. Die beobachteten und simulierten Bodenfeuchtewerte von co-polarisierten RadarSAT-2 HH, TerraSAR-X HH und VV Daten korrelieren mit einem R2 von 0.88 - 0.92. Die zusammengesetzten globalen Bodenfeuchteprodukte von FLDAS_NOAH, ERA-Interim sowie SMOS und FLDAS_VIC, ERA-Interim und SMOS zeigen ähnliche Muster wie FLDAS_NOAH und FLDAS_VIC, was über die Verwendung desselben Niederschlagsproduktes (RFE) zu erklären ist. Die Kreuzkorrelation von MODIS NDVI und den zusammengeführten Bodenfeuchteprodukten ergab eine zeitliche Verzögerung des NDVI von zwei Monaten. Dieser Zusammenhang kann daher bei der Bestimmung des Saisonbeginns aus Bodenfeuchtigkeitsprodukten nützlich sein. Zusammengefasst hat die Studie gezeigt, wie Satellitenbilder zur Charakterisierung von Wetlands genutzt werden können. Die große Abdeckung und häufige Aufnahme der optischen und Mikrowellen-Fernerkundungsdaten ermöglichen darüber hinaus die Übertragung der Ansätze auf weitere Gebiete und Kartierung auf größeren Skalen. Die Punktmessungen zeigen kleinräumige Muster der Bodenfeuchte, während globale Fernerkundungsprodukte und Modelle Informationen über die Wachstumsbedingungen liefern und somit ein Bewertungsinstrument der Ernährungssicherheit darstellen können. Weiterhin bildet die Studie eine Basis, auf der ein weitergehendes Monitoring und eine Bewertung des Feuchtgebietsökosystems durchgeführt werden kann. Sie ist ein Beispiel für fernerkundungsbasierte Ansätze zur Landbedeckungs- und Bodenfeuchtekartierung; ihre Ergebnisse sind nützlich, um Akteuren bei der Implementierung von Produktionstechniken zu unterstützen, welche die Erträge maximieren und gleichzeitig die nicht nachhaltige Nutzung der natürlichen Ressourcen minimieren

Advancing agricultural monitoring for improved yield estimations using SPOT-VGT and PROBA-V type remote sensing data

Accurate and timely crop condition monitoring is crucial for food management and the economic development of any nation. However, accurately estimating crop yield from the field to global scales is a challenge. According to the global strategy of the World Bank, in order to improve national agricultural statistics, crop area, crop production, and crop yield are key variables that all countries should be able to provide. Crop yield assessment requires that both an estimation of the quantity of a product and the area provided for that product should be available. The definition seems simple; however, these measurements are time consuming and subject to error in many circumstances. Remote sensing is one of several methods used for crop yield estimation. The yield results from a combination of environmental factors, such as soil, weather, and farm management, which are responsible for the unique spectral signature of a crop captured by satellite images. Additionally, yield is an expression of the state, structure, and composition of the plant. Various indices, crop masks, and land observation sensors have been developed to remotely observe and control crops in different regions. This thesis focuses on how much low spatial resolution satellites, such as Project for On Board Autonomy Vegetation (PROBA V), can contribute to global crop monitoring by aiding the search for improved methods and datasets for better crop yield estimation. This thesis contains three chapters. The first chapter explores how an existing product, Dry Matter Productivity (DMP), that has been developed for Satellites Pour l’Observation de la Terre or Earth observing Satellites VeGeTation (SPOT VGT), and transferred to PROBA V, can be improved to more closely relate to yield anomalies across selected regions. This chapter also covers the testing of the contribution of stress factors to improve wheat and maize yield estimations. According to Monteith’s theory, crop biomass linearly correlates with the amount of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (APAR) and constant Radiation Use Efficiency (RUE) downregulated by stress factors such as CO2, fertilization, temperature, and water stress. The objective of this chapter is to investigate the relative importance of these stress factors in relation to the regional biomass production and yield. The production efficiency model Copernicus Global Land Service Dry Matter Productivity (CGLS DMP), which follows Monteith’s theory, is modified and evaluated for common wheat and silage maize in France, Belgium, and Morocco using SPOT VGT for the 1999–2012 period. The correlations between the crop yield data and the cumulative modified DMP, CGLS DMP, Fraction of APAR (fAPAR), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values are analyzed for different crop growth stages. The best results are obtained when combinations of the most appropriate stress factors are included for each selected region, and the modified DMP during the reproductive stage is accumulated. Though no single solution can demonstrate an improvement of the global product, the findings support an extension of the methodology to other regions of the world. The second chapter demonstrates how PROBA V can be used effectively for crop identification mapping by utilizing spectral matching techniques and phenological characteristics of different crop types. The study sites are agricultural areas spread across the globe, located in Flanders (Belgium), Sria (Russia), Kyiv (Ukraine), and Sao Paulo (Brazil). The data are collected for the 2014–2015 season. For each pure pixel within a field, the NDVI profile of the crop type for its growing season is matched with the reference NDVI profile. Three temporal windows are tested within the growing season: green up to senescence, green up to dormancy, and minimum NDVI at the beginning of the growing season to minimum NDVI at the end of the growing season. In order of importance, the crop phenological development period, parcel size, shorter time window, number of ground truth parcels, and crop calendar similarity are the main reasons behind the differences between the results. The methodology described in this chapter demonstrates the potentials and limitations of using 100 m PROBA V with revisiting frequency every 5 days in crop identification across different regions of the world. The final chapter explores the trade off between the different spatial resolutions provided by PROBA V products versus the temporal frequency and, additionally, explores the use of thermal time to improve statistical yield estimations. The ground data are winter wheat yields at the field level for 39 fields across Northern France during one growing season 2014–2015. An asymmetric double sigmoid function is fitted, and the NDVI values are integrated over thermal time and over calendar time for the central pixel of the field, exploring different thresholds to mark the start and end of the cropping season. The integrated NDVI values with different NDVI thresholds are used as a proxy for yield. In addition, a pixel purity analysis is performed for different purity thresholds at the 100 m, 300 m, and 1 km resolutions. The findings demonstrate that while estimating winter wheat yields at the field level with pure pixels from PROBA V products, the best correlation is obtained with a 100 m resolution product. However, several fields must be omitted due to the lack of observations throughout the growing season with the 100 m resolution dataset, as this product has a lower temporal resolution compared to 300 m and 1 km. This thesis is a modest contribution to the remote sensing and data analysis field with its own merits, in particular with respect to PROBA V. The experiments provide interesting insight into the PROBA V dataset at 1 km, 300 m, and 100 m resolutions. Specifically, the results show that 100 m spatial resolution imagery could be used effectively and advantageously in agricultural crop monitoring and crop identification at local – field level – and regional – the administrative regions defined by the national governments – levels. Furthermore, this thesis discusses the limitations of using a low resolution satellite, such as the PROBA V 100 m dataset, in crop monitoring and identification. Also, several recommendations are made for space agencies that can be used when designing the new generation of satellites