A General Overview of Multi-objective Multiple-participant Decision Making for Flood Management

Decision-making problems in water resources are often associated with multiple objectives and multiple stakeholders. To enable more effective and acceptable decision outcome, it is required that more participation is ensured in the decision making process. This is particularly relevant for flood management problems where the number of stakeholders could be very large. Although application of multi-objective decision-making tools in water resources is very wide, application with the consideration of multiple stakeholders is much more limited. The solution methodologies adapted for multi-objective multi-participant decision problems are generally based on aggregation of decisions obtained for individual decision makers. This approach seems somewhat inadequate when the number of stakeholders is very large, as often is the case in flood management. The present study has been performed to have an overview of existing solution methodologies for multi-objective decision making approaches in water resources. Decision making by single and multiple stakeholders has been considered under both deterministic and uncertain conditions. It has been found that the use of fuzzy set theory to represent various uncertainties associated with decision making situations under multi-objective multiple-participant environment is very promising. Coupled with multi-objective methods (e. g. compromise programming and goal programming), fuzzy approach has also the ability to support group decisions, to reflect collective opinions and conflicting judgments.https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/wrrr/1003/thumbnail.jp

Ordering based decision making: a survey

Decision making is the crucial step in many real applications such as organization management, financial planning, products evaluation and recommendation. Rational decision making is to select an alternative from a set of different ones which has the best utility (i.e., maximally satisfies given criteria, objectives, or preferences). In many cases, decision making is to order alternatives and select one or a few among the top of the ranking. Orderings provide a natural and effective way for representing indeterminate situations which are pervasive in commonsense reasoning. Ordering based decision making is then to find the suitable method for evaluating candidates or ranking alternatives based on provided ordinal information and criteria, and this in many cases is to rank alternatives based on qualitative ordering information. In this paper, we discuss the importance and research aspects of ordering based decision making, and review the existing ordering based decision making theories and methods along with some future research directions

Integrating multiple criteria decision analysis in participatory forest planning

Forest planning in a participatory context often involves multiple stakeholders with conflicting interests. A promising approach for handling these complex situations is to integrate participatory planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The objective of this paper is to analyze strengths and weaknesses of such an integrated approach, focusing on how the use of MCDA has influenced the participatory process. The paper outlines a model for a participatory MCDA process with five steps: stakeholder analysis, structuring of the decision problem, generation of alternatives, elicitation of preferences, and ranking of alternatives. This model was applied in a case study of a planning process for the urban forest in Lycksele, Sweden. In interviews with stakeholders, criteria for four different social groups were identified. Stakeholders also identified specific areas important to them and explained what activities the areas were used for and the forest management they wished for there. Existing forest data were combined with information from interviews to create a map in which the urban forest was divided into zones of different management classes. Three alternative strategic forest plans were produced based on the zonal map. The stakeholders stated their preferences individually by the Analytic Hierarchy Process in inquiry forms and a ranking of alternatives and consistency ratios were determined for each stakeholder. Rankings of alternatives were aggregated; first, for each social group using the arithmetic mean, and then an overall aggregated ranking was calculated from the group rankings using the weighted arithmetic mean. The participatory MCDA process in Lycksele is assessed against five social goals: incorporating public values into decisions, improving the substantive quality of decisions, resolving conflict among competing interests, building trust in institutions, and educating and informing the public. The results and assessment of the case study support the integration of participatory planning and MCDA as a viable option for handling complex forest-management situations. Key issues related to the MCDA methodology that need to be explored further were identified: 1) The handling of place-specific criteria, 2) development of alternatives, 3) the aggregation of individual preferences into a common preference, and 4) application and evaluation of the integrated approach in real case studies

Decision Making: A Computer-Science and Information-Technology Viewpoint

We address the phenomenon of decision making from the viewpoint of computer science and information technology. The basic question from this viewpoint is: what can the computer offer to decision makers and how it can support their work? Therefore, the main issue is to provide support to people who make complex decisions. In this article, we first present the taxonomy of disciplines that are concerned with methodological and operational aspects of decision support. At the main level, we distinguish between decision sciences, which are concerned with human decision making, and decision systems, which address computer decision making. This is followed by basic definitions related to decision processes and their components. We also describe properties that characterise different classes of decision problems. In the main part of the article, we present three prevailing approaches to decision support and give illustrative examples of their application: decision analysis, operational research, and decision support systems. Finally, we make a short overview of the area of decision systems and its achievements.decision making, decision sciences, decision support, decision analysis, decision systems

A Group Decision Making Approach for Dealing with Fuzziness in Decision Process

In order to deal with various imprecise opinions and preferences of decision makers in group decision-making process, this paper proposes a fuzzy group decision-making approach. The approach has three advantages from existing approaches. First, it can handle simultaneously group members’ fuzzy preferences for alternative solutions, fuzzy judgments for solution selection criteria and fuzzy weights for their roles in group decision-making to arrive a group consensus decision. Second, it allows group members to generate selection criteria for the best solution rather than assume them to be given before a group meeting. The third is that it uses general fuzzy number to express linguistic terms which is used to describe the fuzziness of individual preferences, judgments and weights in group decision-making. It therefore accepts any forms of fuzzy number, including triangular fuzzy number, rectangle fuzzy number and continuous fuzzy number, when applying the group decision-making approach

Intentional bounded rationality methodology to assess the quality of decision-making approaches with latent alternative performances

Expert’s judgments have been crucial in the development of decision theory; however, what criterion to use in the selection of experts remains an issue to address. Decision support techniques proposed to improve the quality of expert judgment decision making consider a demonstrated inconsistency of the judgments expressed by an expert as a criterion of exclusion in the decision-making process of such expert. Although consistency appears to be a desirable condition to qualify as “expert”, little is known about the quality of the decisions made imposing consistency as the expert qualifying condition. This paper proposes a simulation methodology, based on an automaton programmed to make decisions in an intended but bounded rational way, to assess the cost-benefit of different aspects of decision support techniques. Within this methodology, the imposition of the consistency condition in the selection of experts is studied. In particular, the paper shows with a case study example that the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) decision support technique expected payoff is at most 5% higher when implementing Saaty’s consistency criterion of the expert’s judgments than when the consistency criterion is not considered.Spanish Government ECO2017-86305-C4-3-RGobierno de AragonEuropean Social Fund (ESF)Spanish Government PID2019-103880RB-I00/AEI/10.13039/50110001103

New group decision-making ARCAS approach based on the integration of the SWARA and the ARAS methods adapted for negotiations

Groups are generally considered to be more effective as compared to single individuals. The practical implementation of Operation Research methods in group negotiations needs simple contexts and clear cause-and-effect relationships easily discernible by everyone. This paper proposes a multi-criteria group decision-making approach allowing decision makers/experts involved in a negotiation process to better express and defend their preferences in the selection of the best alternative. In the proposed approach, the most appropriate alternative is the alternative with the largest number of appearances in the first position or in ranking lists, or the one determined based on negotiations of decision makers/experts. The proposed ARCAS approach is based on the use of the ARAS method, a new normalization procedure, and the SWARA method. In the proposed approach, each decision maker/expert involved in evaluation has an opportunity to set the preferred level of rating for each criterion used in such evaluation. Finally, a case study is presented in order to highlight the proposed approach. The obtained results confirm the usability and efficiency of the proposed approach

A multi-step goal programming approach for group decision making with incomplete interval additive reciprocal comparison matrices

This article presents a goal programming framework to solve group decision making problems where decision-makers’ judgments are provided as incomplete interval additive reciprocal comparison matrices (IARCMs). New properties of multiplicative consistent IARCMs are put forward and used to define consistent incomplete IARCMs. A two-step goal programming method is developed to estimate missing values for an incomplete IARCM. The first step minimizes the inconsistency of the completed IARCMs and controls uncertainty ratios of the estimated judgments within an acceptable threshold, and the second step finds the most appropriate estimated missing values among the optimal solutions obtained from the previous step. A weighted geometric mean approach is proposed to aggregate individual IARCMs into a group IARCM by employing the lower bounds of the interval additive reciprocal judgments. A two-step procedure consisting of two goal programming models is established to derive interval weights from the group IARCM. The first model is devised to minimize the absolute difference between the logarithm of the group preference and that of the constructed multiplicative consistent judgment. The second model is developed to generate an interval-valued priority vector by maximizing the uncertainty ratio of the constructed consistent IARCM and incorporating the optimal objective value of the first model as a constraint. Two numerical examples are furnished to demonstrate validity and applicability of the proposed approach