Dust modelling and forecasting in the Barcelona Supercomputing Center: activities and developments

The Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) is the National Supercomputer Facility in Spain, hosting MareNostrum, one of the most powerful Supercomputers in Europe. The Earth Sciences Department of BSC operates daily regional dust and air quality forecasts and conducts intensive modelling research for short-term operational prediction. This contribution summarizes the latest developments and current activities in the field of sand and dust storm modelling and forecasting.This work was partly funded by the projects CICYT CGL2006-11879 and CGL2006-08903 of the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science and CALIOPE project 441/2006/3-12.1 of the Spanish Ministry of the Environment

Airborne dust: from R and D to operational forecast. 2013-2015 Activity Report of the SDS-WAS Regional Center for Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe

The 17th World Meteorological Congress designated the consortium of AEMET and Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) to host the first WMO Regional Meteorological Center specialized on Atmospheric Sand and Dust Forecast. The new center operationally generates and distributes dust forecasts under the name of Barcelona Dust Forecast Center. This decision recognizes the research activities and the products implemented by AEMET and BSC as a valuable contribution to the WMO Sand and Dust Storm – Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS). The services provided by the Barcelona Dust Forecast Center allow for the development of strategies to minimize the severe impacts caused by atmospheric dust on lives and property in Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe. This report summarizes the activities of the SDS-WAS Regional Center for Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe for 2013-2015 and shows the great success of the SDS-WAS project

Regional Center for Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe of the WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment Sytem: activity report 2010-2012

This report presents the Center’s activities in the 2010-2012 period. It reports on its efforts to build capacity in the region and to develop user services to reduction of adverse impacts of dust in countries heavily impacted by dust storms. There remain important SDS-WAS research issues to be considered and it is hoped that the Center will continue to play a coordinating role in addressing these. These research topics include the assimilation of observations in numerical dust prediction models; role of dust chemical/mineral composition on health and environment; direct and indirect interactions of dust and the atmosphere; introduction of new generation of measurements (e.g. ceilometers) to better monitor dust process

Dust Storm Forecasting for Al Udeid AB, Qatar: An Empirical Analysis

Dust storms are extreme weather events that have strong winds laden with visibility reducing and operations limiting dust, The Central Command Air Forces (CENTAF) 28th Operational Weather Squadron (OWS) is ultimately responsible for forecasting weather in the vast, data denied region of Southwest Asia in support of daily military and humanitarian operations. As a result, the 28th OWS requests a simplified forecasting tool to help predict mesoscale dust events that affect coalition operations at Al Udeid AB, Qatar. This research satisfies the 28th OWS request through an extensive statistical analysis of observational data depicting seasonal dust events over the past 2 years. The resultant multiple linear regression best fit model combines 28 easily attainable model outputs, satellite imagery, surface and upper air observations, and applies a linear transformation equation. The best fit model derived provides the end user with a numerical visibility prediction tool for Al Udeid AB that is verified against a seasonally divided and independent validation data set that yields an R2 of 0.79 while maintaining \u3c 800 m accuracy

The Implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for Global Dust Forecasting at NOAA NCEP

The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implemented the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) Global Forecast System (GFS) Aerosol Component (NGAC) for global dust forecasting in collaboration with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). NGAC Version 1.0 has been providing 5-day dust forecasts at 1deg x 1deg resolution on a global scale, once per day at 00:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), since September 2012. This is the first global system capable of interactive atmosphere aerosol forecasting at NCEP. The implementation of NGAC V1.0 reflects an effective and efficient transitioning of NASA research advances to NCEP operations, paving the way for NCEP to provide global aerosol products serving a wide range of stakeholders, as well as to allow the effects of aerosols on weather forecasts and climate prediction to be considered

Numerical Prediction of Dust

Covers the whole breadth of mineral dust research, from a scientific perspective Presents interdisciplinary work including results from field campaigns, satellite observations, laboratory studies, computer modelling and theoretical studies Explores the role of dust as a player and recorder of environmental change This volume presents state-of-the-art research about mineral dust, including results from field campaigns, satellite observations, laboratory studies, computer modelling and theoretical studies. Dust research is a new, dynamic and fast-growing area of science and due to its multiple roles in the Earth system, dust has become a fascinating topic for many scientific disciplines. Aspects of dust research covered in this book reach from timescales of minutes (as with dust devils, cloud processes, and radiation) to millennia (as with loess formation and oceanic sediments), making dust both a player and recorder of environmental change. The book is structured in four main parts that explore characteristics of dust, the global dust cycle, impacts of dust on the Earth system, and dust as a climate indicator. The chapters in these parts provide a comprehensive, detailed overview of this highly interdisciplinary subject. The contributions presented here cover dust from source to sink and describe all the processes dust particles undergo while travelling through the atmosphere. Chapters explore how dust is lifted and transported, how it affects radiation, clouds, regional circulations, precipitation and chemical processes in the atmosphere, and how it deteriorates air quality. The book explores how dust is removed from the atmosphere by gravitational settling, turbulence or precipitation, how iron contained in dust fertilizes terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and about the role that dust plays in human health. We learn how dust is observed, simulated using computer models and forecast. The book also details the role of dust deposits for climate reconstructions. Scientific observations and results are presented, along with numerous illustrations. This work has an interdisciplinary appeal and will engage scholars in geology, geography, chemistry, meteorology and physics, amongst others with an interest in the Earth system and environmental change

Weather forecasts: up to one week in advance

In this chapter, we examine how weather forecasts are made and how they may be used by the health sector. We explore why, where and when we might obtain good forecasts and why sometimes the forecasts go wrong. We consider the theoretical and practical constraints on weather forecasts and why their accuracy declines rapidly after only a few days. Knowing the limitations of weather forecasts helps us to learn how to make best use of such information

Data assimilation of dust aerosol observations for CUACE/Dust forecasting system

International audienceA data assimilation system (DAS) was developed for the Chinese Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment ? Dust (CUACE/Dust) forecast system and applied in the operational forecasts of sand and dust storm (SDS) in spring 2006. The system is based on a three dimensional variational method (3D-Var) and uses extensively the measurements of surface visibility and dust loading retrieval from the Chinese geostationary satellite FY-2C. The results show that a major improvement to the capability of CUACE/Dust in forecasting the short-term variability in the spatial distribution and intensity of dust concentrations has been achieved, especially in those areas far from the source regions. The seasonal mean Threat Score (TS) over the East Asia in spring 2006 increased from 0.22 to 0.31 by using the data assimilation system, a 41% enhancement. The assimilation results usually agree with the dust loading retrieved from FY-2C and visibility distribution from surface meteorological stations, which indicates that the 3D-Var method is very powerful for the unification of observation and numerical modeling results