A comparison of two lot sizing-sequencing heuristics for the process industry

Production Models;produktie

Demand uncertainty and lot sizing in manufacturing systems: the effects of forecasting errors and mis-specification

This paper proposes a methodology for examining the effect of demand uncertainty and forecast error on lot sizing methods, unit costs and customer service levels in MRP type manufacturing systems. A number of cost structures were considered which depend on the expected time between orders. A simple two-level MRP system where the product is manufactured for stock was then simulated. Stochastic demand for the final product was generated by two commonly occurring processes and with different variances. Various lot sizing rules were then used to determine the amount of product made and the amount of materials bought in. The results confirm earlier research that the behaviour of lot sizing rules is quite different when there is uncertainty in demand compared to the situation of perfect foresight of demand. The best lot sizing rules for the deterministic situation are the worst whenever there is uncertainty in demand. In addition the choice of lot sizing rule between ‘good’ rules such as the EOQ turns out to be relatively less important in reducing unit cost compared to improving forecasting accuracy whatever the cost structure. The effect of demand uncertainty on unit cost for a given service level increases exponentially as the uncertainty in the demand data increases. The paper also shows how the value of improved forecasting can be analysed by examining the effects of different sizes of forecast error in addition to demand uncertainty. In those manufacturing problems with high forecast error variance, improved forecast accuracy should lead to substantial percentage improvements in unit costs

Computing (R, S) policies with correlated demand

This paper considers the single-item single-stocking non-stationary stochastic lot-sizing problem under correlated demand. By operating under a nonstationary (R, S) policy, in which R denote the reorder period and S the associated order-up-to-level, we introduce a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model which can be easily implemented by using off-theshelf optimisation software. Our modelling strategy can tackle a wide range of time-seriesbased demand processes, such as autoregressive (AR), moving average(MA), autoregressive moving average(ARMA), and autoregressive with autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity process(AR-ARCH). In an extensive computational study, we compare the performance of our model against the optimal policy obtained via stochastic dynamic programming. Our results demonstrate that the optimality gap of our approach averages 2.28% and that computational performance is good

A new Silver-Meal based heuristic for the single-item dynamic lot sizing problem with returns and remanufacturing

In a recent contribution, Teunter et al. [2006. Dynamic lot sizing with product returns and remanufacturing. IJPR 44 (20), 4377-4400] adapted three well-known heuristic approaches for the single-item dynamic lot sizing problem to incorporate returning products that can be remanufactured. The Silver-Meal based approach revealed in a large numerical study the best performance for the separate setup cost setting, i.e. the replenishment options remanufacturing and manufacturing are charged separately for each order. This contribution generalizes the Silver-Meal based heuristic by applying methods elaborated for the corresponding static problem and attaching two simple improvement steps. By doing this, the percentage gap to the optimal solution which has been used as a performance measure has been reduced to less than half of its initial value in almost all settings examined.

A PERISHABLE INVENTORY MODEL WITH UNKNOWN TIME HORIZON

Traditionally, the time (planning) horizon over which the inventory for a particular item will be controlled is often assumed to be known (finite or infinite) and the total inventory cost is usually obtained by summing up the cost over the entire time horizon. However, in some inventory situations the period over which the inventory will be controlled are difficult to predict with certainty, as the inventory problems may not live up to or live beyond the assumed planning horizon, thereby affecting the optimality of the model. This paper presents a deterministic perishable inventory model for items with linear trend in demand and constant deterioration when time horizon is unknown, unspecified or unbounded. The heuristic model obtains replenishment policy by determining the ordering schedule to minimize the total cost per unit time over the duration of each schedule. A numerical example and sensitivity analysis are given to illustrate the model

Clips: a capacity and lead time integrated procedure for scheduling.

We propose a general procedure to address real life job shop scheduling problems. The shop typically produces a variety of products, each with its own arrival stream, its own route through the shop and a given customer due date. The procedure first determines the manufacturing lot sizes for each product. The objective is to minimize the expected lead time and therefore we model the production environment as a queueing network. Given these lead times, release dates are set dynamically. This in turn creates a time window for every manufacturing order in which the various operations have to be sequenced. The sequencing logic is based on a Extended Shifting Bottleneck Procedure. These three major decisions are next incorporated into a four phase hierarchical operational implementation scheme. A small numerical example is used to illustrate the methodology. The final objective however is to develop a procedure that is useful for large, real life shops. We therefore report on a real life application.Model; Models; Applications; Product; Scheduling;