Importance of small earthquakes for stress transfers and earthquake triggering

We estimate the relative importance of small and large earthquakes for static stress changes and for earthquake triggering, assuming that earthquakes are triggered by static stress changes and that earthquakes are located on a fractal network of dimension D. This model predicts that both the number of events triggered by an earthquake of magnitude m and the stress change induced by this earthquake at the location of other earthquakes increase with m as \~10^(Dm/2). The stronger the spatial clustering, the larger the influence of small earthquakes on stress changes at the location of a future event as well as earthquake triggering. If earthquake magnitudes follow the Gutenberg-Richter law with b>D/2, small earthquakes collectively dominate stress transfer and earthquake triggering, because their greater frequency overcomes their smaller individual triggering potential. Using a Southern-California catalog, we observe that the rate of seismicity triggered by an earthquake of magnitude m increases with m as 10^(alpha m), where alpha=1.00+-0.05. We also find that the magnitude distribution of triggered earthquakes is independent of the triggering earthquake magnitude m. When alpha=b, small earthquakes are roughly as important to earthquake triggering as larger ones. We evaluate the fractal correlation dimension of hypocenters D=2 using two relocated catalogs for Southern California, and removing the effect of short-term clustering. Thus D=2alpha as predicted by assuming that earthquake triggering is due to static stress. The value D=2 implies that small earthquakes are as important as larger ones for stress transfers between earthquakes.Comment: 14 pages, 7 eps figures, latex. In press in J. Geophys. Re

Analysis of drawbacks and constraints of classification algorithms for three-phase voltage dips

Voltage events are one of the most common and harmful disturbances of power electric systems. Voltage dips, swells and interruptions are included under this heading. Given the economic cost that these disturbances represent for electrical power transmission and distribution companies and the industry, it becomes imperative to detect and classify them properly. Several classification criteria and algorithms have been proposed in the literature as analysis tools to differentiate voltage events by their characteristics and, if possible, to determine their causes and consequences. Even though some of these approaches make a correct classification of the voltage events, there are certain operation conditions that are common in real electrical grids, in which the classification criteria, and their corresponding algorithms, make a wrong classification. These particular conditions, together with the lack of a fair comparison in a common scenario, have not been addressed in the specific field literature. This work explores in detail all these aspects by evaluating the symmetrical components criterion and ABC classification criterion, and rigorously analyzes three specific algorithms: the Symmetrical Components Algorithm, the Six Phases Algorithm and the Space Vector Algorithm. Drawbacks arise from both classification criteria and algorithms. The causes of the classification errors are described and discussed in detail in order to better understand the problem, and evidence the constraints of these classification methods.Fil: Strack, Jorge Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas en Electrónica. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas en Electrónica; ArgentinaFil: Carugati, Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas en Electrónica. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas en Electrónica; ArgentinaFil: Orallo, Carlos Martin. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas en Electrónica. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas en Electrónica; ArgentinaFil: Donato, Patricio Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas en Electrónica. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas en Electrónica; ArgentinaFil: Maestri, Sebastian Oscar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas en Electrónica. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas en Electrónica; ArgentinaFil: Carrica, Daniel Oscar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas en Electrónica. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas en Electrónica; Argentin

Techniques for the Fast Simulation of Models of Highly dependable Systems

With the ever-increasing complexity and requirements of highly dependable systems, their evaluation during design and operation is becoming more crucial. Realistic models of such systems are often not amenable to analysis using conventional analytic or numerical methods. Therefore, analysts and designers turn to simulation to evaluate these models. However, accurate estimation of dependability measures of these models requires that the simulation frequently observes system failures, which are rare events in highly dependable systems. This renders ordinary Simulation impractical for evaluating such systems. To overcome this problem, simulation techniques based on importance sampling have been developed, and are very effective in certain settings. When importance sampling works well, simulation run lengths can be reduced by several orders of magnitude when estimating transient as well as steady-state dependability measures. This paper reviews some of the importance-sampling techniques that have been developed in recent years to estimate dependability measures efficiently in Markov and nonMarkov models of highly dependable system