233,682 research outputs found
An Integrated Multi-Time-Scale Modeling for Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Deep Learning
For short-term solar irradiance forecasting, the traditional point
forecasting methods are rendered less useful due to the non-stationary
characteristic of solar power. The amount of operating reserves required to
maintain reliable operation of the electric grid rises due to the variability
of solar energy. The higher the uncertainty in the generation, the greater the
operating-reserve requirements, which translates to an increased cost of
operation. In this research work, we propose a unified architecture for
multi-time-scale predictions for intra-day solar irradiance forecasting using
recurrent neural networks (RNN) and long-short-term memory networks (LSTMs).
This paper also lays out a framework for extending this modeling approach to
intra-hour forecasting horizons thus, making it a multi-time-horizon
forecasting approach, capable of predicting intra-hour as well as intra-day
solar irradiance. We develop an end-to-end pipeline to effectuate the proposed
architecture. The performance of the prediction model is tested and validated
by the methodical implementation. The robustness of the approach is
demonstrated with case studies conducted for geographically scattered sites
across the United States. The predictions demonstrate that our proposed unified
architecture-based approach is effective for multi-time-scale solar forecasts
and achieves a lower root-mean-square prediction error when benchmarked against
the best-performing methods documented in the literature that use separate
models for each time-scale during the day. Our proposed method results in a
71.5% reduction in the mean RMSE averaged across all the test sites compared to
the ML-based best-performing method reported in the literature. Additionally,
the proposed method enables multi-time-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs,
which have a significant potential for practical industry applications in the
evolving grid.Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables, under review for journal submissio
Image Embedding of PMU Data for Deep Learning towards Transient Disturbance Classification
This paper presents a study on power grid disturbance classification by Deep
Learning (DL). A real synchrophasor set composing of three different types of
disturbance events from the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET) is used. An
image embedding technique called Gramian Angular Field is applied to transform
each time series of event data to a two-dimensional image for learning. Two
main DL algorithms, i.e. CNN (Convolutional Neural Network) and RNN (Recurrent
Neural Network) are tested and compared with two widely used data mining tools,
the Support Vector Machine and Decision Tree. The test results demonstrate the
superiority of the both DL algorithms over other methods in the application of
power system transient disturbance classification.Comment: An updated version of this manuscript has been accepted by the 2018
IEEE International Conference on Energy Internet (ICEI), Beijing, Chin
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