Investigating the Impact of Covid-19 on Mobility Condition.

Having large number of vehicles operating in the freeways of Houston daily, the mobility concern is high as some of the freeways in Houston are among the most congested freeways in United States. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the less congested freeways led to over speeding resulting in various crashes and even fatality. This resulted in changing of drivers; and ultimately the mobility patterns were changed during the study years of 2019, 2020 and 2021. To better understand how this mobility pattern changed over the three years, this research used Machine Learning algorithms to examine the mobility of freeways in Houston during that time. For this purpose, a model was developed using python coding which considered operating speed and other independent variables to understand the change of the traffic mobility. Several methods were used in the study to check the effectiveness of Artificial Intelligence modeling. To check how the mobility was impacted over the years, Violin Plots were also plotted to illustrate the change of operating speed from year 2019 to 2021. The results of this research demonstrated that there are eight factors that have significant effects on the vehicular mobility. Among them, annual average daily traffic is the most influencing in traffic mobility study whereas K-factor is the least effective among the selected variables. Relative countermeasures were recommended according to the influencing factors that were identified

Multi-level Safety Performance Functions For High Speed Facilities

High speed facilities are considered the backbone of any successful transportation system; Interstates, freeways, and expressways carry the majority of daily trips on the transportation network. Although these types of roads are relatively considered the safest among other types of roads, they still experience many crashes, many of which are severe, which not only affect human lives but also can have tremendous economical and social impacts. These facts signify the necessity of enhancing the safety of these high speed facilities to ensure better and efficient operation. Safety problems could be assessed through several approaches that can help in mitigating the crash risk on long and short term basis. Therefore, the main focus of the research in this dissertation is to provide a framework of risk assessment to promote safety and enhance mobility on freeways and expressways. Multi-level Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) were developed at the aggregate level using historical crash data and the corresponding exposure and risk factors to identify and rank sites with promise (hot-spots). Additionally, SPFs were developed at the disaggregate level utilizing real-time weather data collected from meteorological stations located at the freeway section as well as traffic flow parameters collected from different detection systems such as Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) and Remote Traffic Microwave Sensors (RTMS). These disaggregate SPFs can identify real-time risks due to turbulent traffic conditions and their interactions with other risk factors. In this study, two main datasets were obtained from two different regions. Those datasets comprise historical crash data, roadway geometrical characteristics, aggregate weather and traffic parameters as well as real-time weather and traffic data. iii At the aggregate level, Bayesian hierarchical models with spatial and random effects were compared to Poisson models to examine the safety effects of roadway geometrics on crash occurrence along freeway sections that feature mountainous terrain and adverse weather. At the disaggregate level; a main framework of a proactive safety management system using traffic data collected from AVI and RTMS, real-time weather and geometrical characteristics was provided. Different statistical techniques were implemented. These techniques ranged from classical frequentist classification approaches to explain the relationship between an event (crash) occurring at a given time and a set of risk factors in real time to other more advanced models. Bayesian statistics with updating approach to update beliefs about the behavior of the parameter with prior knowledge in order to achieve more reliable estimation was implemented. Also a relatively recent and promising Machine Learning technique (Stochastic Gradient Boosting) was utilized to calibrate several models utilizing different datasets collected from mixed detection systems as well as real-time meteorological stations. The results from this study suggest that both levels of analyses are important, the aggregate level helps in providing good understanding of different safety problems, and developing policies and countermeasures to reduce the number of crashes in total. At the disaggregate level, real-time safety functions help toward more proactive traffic management system that will not only enhance the performance of the high speed facilities and the whole traffic network but also provide safer mobility for people and goods. In general, the proposed multi-level analyses are useful in providing roadway authorities with detailed information on where countermeasures must be implemented and when resources should be devoted. The study also proves that traffic data collected from different detection systems could be a useful asset that should be utilized iv appropriately not only to alleviate traffic congestion but also to mitigate increased safety risks. The overall proposed framework can maximize the benefit of the existing archived data for freeway authorities as well as for road users

Evaluating Mobility Impacts of Construction Work Zones on Utah Transportation System Using Machine Learning Techniques

Construction work zones are inevitable parts of daily operations at roadway systems. They have a significant impact on traffic conditions and the mobility of roadway systems. The traffic impacts of work zones could significantly vary due to several interacting factors such as work zone factors (work zone location and layout, length of the closure, work zone speed, intensity, and daily active hours); traffic factors (percentage of heavy vehicles, highway speed limit, capacity, mobility, flow, density, congestion, and occupancy); road factors (number of total lanes, number of open lanes, and pavement grade and condition); temporal factors (e.g., year, season, month, weekday, daytime, and darkness); weather conditions (rainy, sunny, and snowy); and spatial factors (road lane width, proximity, and number of ramps). Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT) is continuously collecting and storing project-related data. Due to the significant impact of work zones on traffic conditions, they are interested in evaluating the impacts of work zone attributes on mobility and traffic conditions of roadway systems within the state of Utah. Such an analysis will help the UDOT personnel better understand and plan for more efficient work zone operations, select the most effective traffic management systems for work zones, and assess the hidden costs of construction operations at work zones. To help UDOT address this problem, we propose a robust, deep neural network (DNN) model capable of evaluating the impacts of the factors mentioned earlier on the mobility conditions of Utah roadway systems. DNNs can capture all the relationships between input variables and output compared to traditional machine learning algorithms. The results of this project show that work zone features have an important effect on the traffic condition. In the end, the performance of the model is evaluated using three different measures, including R2 score, RMSE, and MAE. Comparing the measurement to previously conducted research, it is the first study that has attempted to investigate the effect of work zone features on hourly traffic volume

UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH TRAVEL TIME PREDICTION: ADVANCED VOLATILITY APPROACHES AND ENSEMBLE METHODS

Travel time effectively measures freeway traffic conditions. Easy access to this information provides the potential to alleviate traffic congestion and to increase the reliability in road networks. Accurate travel time information through Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) can provide guidance for travelers' decisions on departure time, route, and mode choice, and reduce travelers' stress and anxiety. In addition, travel time information can be used to present the current or future traffic state in a network and provide assistance for transportation agencies in proactively developing Advanced Traffic Management System (ATMS) strategies. Despite its importance, it is still a challenging task to model and estimate travel time, as traffic often has irregular fluctuations. These fluctuations result from the interactions among different vehicle-driver combinations and exogenous factors such as traffic incidents, weather, demand, and roadway conditions. Travel time is especially sensitive to the exogenous factors when operating at or near the roadway's capacity, where congestion occurs. Small changes in traffic demand or the occurrence of an incident can greatly affect the travel time. As it is impossible to take into consideration every impact of these unpredictable exogenous factors in the modeling process, travel time prediction problem is often associated with uncertainty. This research uses innovative data mining approaches such as advanced statistical and machine learning algorithms to study uncertainty associated with travel time prediction. The final objective of this research is to develop more accurate and reliable travel time prediction models

Applying Machine Learning Techniques to Analyze the Pedestrian and Bicycle Crashes at the Macroscopic Level

This thesis presents different data mining/machine learning techniques to analyze the vulnerable road users\u27 (i.e., pedestrian and bicycle) crashes by developing crash prediction models at macro-level. In this study, we developed data mining approach (i.e., decision tree regression (DTR) models) for both pedestrian and bicycle crash counts. To author knowledge, this is the first application of DTR models in the growing traffic safety literature at macro-level. The empirical analysis is based on the Statewide Traffic Analysis Zones (STAZ) level crash count data for both pedestrian and bicycle from the state of Florida for the year of 2010 to 2012. The model results highlight the most significant predictor variables for pedestrian and bicycle crash count in terms of three broad categories: traffic, roadway, and socio demographic characteristics. Furthermore, spatial predictor variables of neighboring STAZ were utilized along with the targeted STAZ variables in order to improve the prediction accuracy of both DTR models. The DTR model considering spatial predictor variables (spatial DTR model) were compared without considering spatial predictor variables (aspatial DTR model) and the models comparison results clearly found that spatial DTR model is superior model compared to aspatial DTR model in terms of prediction accuracy. Finally, this study contributed to the safety literature by applying three ensemble techniques (Bagging, Random Forest, and Boosting) in order to improve the prediction accuracy of weak learner (DTR models) for macro-level crash count. The model\u27s estimation result revealed that all the ensemble technique performed better than the DTR model and the gradient boosting technique outperformed other competing ensemble technique in macro-level crash prediction model