A graph oriented approach for network forensic analysis

Network forensic analysis is a process that analyzes intrusion evidence captured from networked environment to identify suspicious entities and stepwise actions in an attack scenario. Unfortunately, the overwhelming amount and low quality of output from security sensors make it difficult for analysts to obtain a succinct high-level view of complex multi-stage intrusions. This dissertation presents a novel graph based network forensic analysis system. The evidence graph model provides an intuitive representation of collected evidence as well as the foundation for forensic analysis. Based on the evidence graph, we develop a set of analysis components in a hierarchical reasoning framework. Local reasoning utilizes fuzzy inference to infer the functional states of an host level entity from its local observations. Global reasoning performs graph structure analysis to identify the set of highly correlated hosts that belong to the coordinated attack scenario. In global reasoning, we apply spectral clustering and Pagerank methods for generic and targeted investigation respectively. An interactive hypothesis testing procedure is developed to identify hidden attackers from non-explicit-malicious evidence. Finally, we introduce the notion of target-oriented effective event sequence (TOEES) to semantically reconstruct stealthy attack scenarios with less dependency on ad-hoc expert knowledge. Well established computation methods used in our approach provide the scalability needed to perform post-incident analysis in large networks. We evaluate the techniques with a number of intrusion detection datasets and the experiment results show that our approach is effective in identifying complex multi-stage attacks

Minimization of DDoS false alarm rate in Network Security; Refining fusion through correlation

Intrusion Detection Systems are designed to monitor a network environment and generate alerts whenever abnormal activities are detected. However, the number of these alerts can be very large making their evaluation a difficult task for a security analyst. Alert management techniques reduce alert volume significantly and potentially improve detection performance of an Intrusion Detection System. This thesis work presents a framework to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of an Intrusion Detection System by significantly reducing the false positive alerts and increasing the ability to spot an actual intrusion for Distributed Denial of Service attacks. Proposed sensor fusion technique addresses the issues relating the optimality of decision-making through correlation in multiple sensors framework. The fusion process is based on combining belief through Dempster Shafer rule of combination along with associating belief with each type of alert and combining them by using Subjective Logic based on Jøsang theory. Moreover, the reliability factor for any Intrusion Detection System is also addressed accordingly in order to minimize the chance of false diagnose of the final network state. A considerable number of simulations are conducted in order to determine the optimal performance of the proposed prototype

Predictive Methods in Cyber Defense: Current Experience and Research Challenges

Predictive analysis allows next-generation cyber defense that is more proactive than current approaches based on intrusion detection. In this paper, we discuss various aspects of predictive methods in cyber defense and illustrate them on three examples of recent approaches. The first approach uses data mining to extract frequent attack scenarios and uses them to project ongoing cyberattacks. The second approach uses a dynamic network entity reputation score to predict malicious actors. The third approach uses time series analysis to forecast attack rates in the network. This paper presents a unique evaluation of the three distinct methods in a common environment of an intrusion detection alert sharing platform, which allows for a comparison of the approaches and illustrates the capabilities of predictive analysis for current and future research and cybersecurity operations. Our experiments show that all three methods achieved a sufficient technology readiness level for experimental deployment in an operational setting with promising accuracy and usability. Namely prediction and projection methods, despite their differences, are highly usable for predictive blacklisting, the first provides a more detailed output, and the second is more extensible. Network security situation forecasting is lightweight and displays very high accuracy, but does not provide details on predicted events