MONETARY POLICY AND BANKING: NON-LINEAR DYNAMIC MODELS EVOLVING AS ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS

Questa tesi presenta cinque capitoli su diversi aspetti della teoria della politica monetaria con un’analisi approfondita degli strumenti a disposizione delle banche centrali (BC) per stabilizzare e correggere gli squilibri nei mercati economici e finanziari globalizzati. I recenti shock provocati dalla recessione del Covid-19 e dalla crisi energetica hanno modificato le interdipendenze tra i principali attori economici, influenzando pesantemente il meccanismo di trasmissione della politica monetaria. L’obiettivo della tesi è indagare l’impatto di tali strumenti monetari in un costrutto teorico che include relazioni non-lineari tra variabili, eterogeneità degli agenti e razionalità limitata, frizioni di mercato e asimmetrie informative. In particolare, le aspettative degli agenti giocano un ruolo cruciale nelle decisioni di politica monetaria e, in questo lavoro, sono ben rappresentate da schemi adattivi che consentono l’apprendimento, l’interazione sociale, l’imitazione e il cambiamento di opinioni. Gli schemi adattivi sono modellati nella forma di sistemi dinamici a tempo discreto e continuo e la loro analisi fornisce nuove intuizioni economiche sul processo evolutivo che porta a situazioni di equilibrio o disequilibrio. Ciò si rivela prezioso in una prospettiva di policy-maker poiché aiuta a comprendere le fragilità intrinseche dei sistemi economici/finanziari, fornendo appropriate misure di policy per mitigarle. Dopo una breve rassegna della letteratura, il capitolo due si concentra sull’identificazione di una regola di Taylor endogena e dinamica per il tasso di interesse a breve termine al fine di ridurre l'inflazione e l'output gap. Lo scopo è quello di mitigare squilibri e shock economici temporanei. I risultati evidenziano il dilemma che le BC si trovano ad affrontare in scenari di trade-off in cui non è possibile raggiungere pienamente entrambi gli obiettivi con un unico strumento a disposizione. Il terzo capitolo fornisce un’analisi approfondita sulla relazione dinamica tra rapporto debito pubblico PIL e tasso di inflazione. Si esamina come diverse politiche monetarie (tasso di interesse, quantitative easing, monetizzazione) e regole fiscali attive possano evitare percorsi insostenibili del debito pubblico e fluttuazioni eccessive dell'inflazione. In scenari di bassa inflazione, il quantitative easing e una modesta monetizzazione finanziaria possono essere utili a stabilizzare l’evoluzione del debito grazie al loro ruolo di contenimento degli spread e di stimolo alla crescita, mentre l’effetto di incremento dell’inflazione è generalmente limitato. Inoltre, la politica basata sui tassi d'interesse da sola non è sufficiente a controllare l'inflazione: la credibilità della BC nel guidare le aspettative di inflazione risulta essere cruciale per controllare l'andamento dei prezzi e raggiungere la stabilità macroeconomica. Una delle novità di questa analisi è la presenza di un livello soglia sia per il rapporto debito/PIL che per l'inflazione, oltre il quale il rapporto debito/PIL diventa insostenibile seguendo un percorso esplosivo. Il quarto capitolo fa luce sui meccanismi attraverso i quali una BC può implementare i rischi legati al cambiamento climatico nelle sue operazioni monetarie non convenzionali (ad esempio, un programma di acquisto di obbligazioni societarie). La cosiddetta politica monetaria verde mira a orientare o a far convergere l'allocazione di attività e garanzie verso i settori industriali a basse emissioni di carbonio. Nel modello sviluppato, questa strategia della BC riduce effettivamente il costo del capitale per le obbligazioni verdi rispetto a quelle convenzionali, favorendo così gli investimenti/tecnologie sostenibili sul mercato...This thesis presents five chapters on different aspects of monetary policy theory with a thorough analysis of the instruments at disposal of central banks (CBs) to stabilize and correct imbalances in globalized economic and financial markets. The recent shocks posed by the Covid-19 recession and energy crisis have changed the interdependencies between key economic actors, heavily affecting the mechanism of transmission of monetary policy. The aim of the thesis is to investigate the impact of such monetary instruments in a theoretical construct that includes non-linear relationships among variables, agents’ heterogeneity and limited rationality, market frictions, and asymmetric information. In particular, the agents’ expectations play a crucial role in monetary policy decisions and, in this work, are well represented by adaptive schemes that allow for learning, social interaction, imitation, and changing beliefs. Adaptive schemes are modeled in the form of discrete or continuous dynamical systems and their analysis provides new economic insights into the evolution process that leads to equilibrium or disequilibrium situations. This turns out to be precious from a policy-maker perspective because it helps to understand the intrinsic fragilities of the economic/financial systems, providing appropriate policy measures to mitigate them. After a brief literature review, chapter two focuses on the identification of an endogenous and dynamic Taylor rule for the short-term interest rate to target inflation and output gaps. The aim is to mitigate temporary economic unbalances and shocks. The results highlight the dilemma faced by the CBs in trade-off scenarios where it is not possible to fully achieve both goals with a unique instrument at their disposal. The third chapter provides an in-depth analysis of the dynamic relationship between the public debt ratio and the inflation rate. It is explored how different monetary policies (interest rate, quantitative easing, monetization) and active fiscal rules can avoid unstainable government debt paths and excessive inflation fluctuations. In low inflation scenarios, quantitative easing and moderate money finance can be helpful in stabilizing debt evolution thanks to their role in containing spreads and stimulating growth, while the effect on inflation rise is generally limited. Furthermore, interest-rate-based policy alone is not sufficient to control inflation: the CB’s credibility in driving inflation expectations results to be crucial to control price developments and achieving macroeconomic stability. One of the novelties of this analysis is the presence of a threshold level for both debt ratio and inflation, beyond which the debt ratio becomes unsustainable following an explosive path. Chapter four sheds light on the mechanisms through which a CB can implement the risks related to climate change in its unconventional monetary operations (e.g. a corporate bonds purchase program). The so-called green monetary policy aims to steer or tilt the allocation of assets and collateral toward low-carbon industries. In the model developed, this CB strategy effectively reduces the cost of capital for green bonds as opposed to conventional bonds, and thus favors sustainable investment/technology in the market. However, there still could be technology trap equilibria in which no investment in green technology occurs in the long-run, even if the non-green investment equilibrium is inefficient. The green monetary policy can help firms to leave these technology traps and the degree of market competition and of market imperfections can contribute to amplifying the effects of this instrument by the transmission channel..

Advances in Spatial Theory and Dynamics

This book originates from two meetings, set apart in time but closely connected by continuing collaborative efforts between researchers in an international network. The first of these meetings took place at IIASA in October 1984, organized by IIASA's Regional Issues Project under the title "Dynamic Analysis of Spatial Development". About half of the papers in this volume were presented at that meeting. These contributions have been elaborated and revised considerably during the preparation of this volume, and can now be regarded as mature papers embracing the frontiers of spatial and economic dynamics. Another set of contributions was presented during the European Summer Institute in Regional Science held at the University of Umea in June 1986. The Summer Institute was organized by CERUM in collaboration with the Departments of Economics and Geography at the same university. The contributions have been drawn from the sessions on technological change, nonlinear dynamics in spatial networks and infrastructure development. This is reflected in the three parts of the volume (1) Competition, specialization and technological change, (2) Spatial interaction, (3) Urban and regional infrastructure

Crisis and Individuation: Mapping and Navigating the Planetary Crisis Convergence

We live in an era of converging global crises, from climate change and mass extinction to political-economic turbulence, energy depletion, food crises, and emerging technological risks. But how will these crises combine and feedback on each other? How might they unfold over the coming years and decades? And what can be done to solve or at least navigate these crises? This dissertation argues that answers to these questions have been hindered by limited efforts so far, both in the field of International Relations and beyond, to develop more holistic analyses of these crises. In large part this is due to the dominance of “isolationist” approaches to the study of global crisis and the social sciences more generally: the tendency to analytically isolate specific systems and problems from other systems with which they’re connected. While isolationist analyses are vital, I argue that they must be supplemented with multidimensional and synthetic analyses in order to adequately grasp the complexity of the contemporary planetary crisis, or what I call the “planetary crisis convergence”, and understand how it may unfold in the coming decades. Overall, this dissertation presents two core arguments. First, that the contemporary world system is on the cusp of a catastrophic discontinuity that will irreversibly transform livelihoods, states, and world order over the next two to four decades. Second, that to see this imminent rupture, understand its causal drivers, and map its possible future trajectories requires a multi-dimensional systems theoretical approach that encompasses political-economic, technological, geological, and ecological processes. To pursue this analysis I develop a theoretical framework drawing from complexity theory, Marxist political economy, and the philosophy of Gilles Deleuze alongside natural scientific studies on climate change, food and energy systems, and technological change. In this way the dissertation synthesizes quantitative analyses of key trends in climate, food, and energy systems with qualitative analysis of political economy, technology, power, and resistance in order to illuminate the possible trajectories of the planetary crisis convergence and inform counter-hegemonic responses. It concludes that these crises will most likely force a transition in the world-system towards one of three global-scale scenarios: a Techno-Authoritarian Planetary Leviathan, an Ecosocialist world-system, or a global collapse. It proposes that a democratic ecosocialist world-system is needed to respond to the planetary crisis convergence in a genuinely sustainable and just manner, which would involve a new political-economy based on well-being, post-growth principles, and democratic planning at multiple scales

Sustainable Development of the Biosphere

The future management of the world's resources depends upon reconciling the needs of socio-economic development with the conservation of the world's environment. This book provides a strategic framework for understanding and managing the long-term and large-scale interactions between these two requirements, based upon the sustainable development of the natural resources of the biosphere. It represents the first results of an on-going collaborative study organized by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and involving some of the world's leading historians, natural scientists, development specialists and policy advisors. It provides an authoritative introduction to some of the most complex contemporary environmental issues, and is written in an easily comprehensible style to make the information accessible to a wide range of professional disciplines, to policy makers and analysts, and to the concerned layman

Investment in capital markets

Investment in Capital Markets creates a strategic vision on the financial capital investment in the capital markets with the aim to get an increased return premium in the short and long time periods. The book is written with a main goal to explain the pros and cons of the financial capital investment in the capital markets, discussing the sophisticated investment concepts and techniques in the simple understandable readable general format language. We would like to highlight the three interesting facts about the book: 1. It is centered on the consideration of the modern investment products, the investment vehicles and the investment mediums for the financial capital investment in the capital markets; 2. It is focused on the financial risk calculation and mitigation techniques for the financial capital investment in the financial capital markets. 3. It is aimed to describe the quantum winning virtuous investment strategies creation and execution techniques during the financial capital investment in the capital markets. The investors, financiers, economists, financial analysts, financial traders, financial advisers, lawmakers, policy analysts, subject experts, professors, and students will certainly enjoy a breathtaking splendid learning journey with the explained new ideas, established concepts and outlined future prospects toward the financial capital investment in the capital markets with the aim to get an increased return premium in the short and long time periods

Universities and regional development : a new perspective on the second academic revolution

Doutoramento em Ciências SociaisO presente trabalho visa contribuir para alargar o conhecimento sobre o papel que as universidades podem desempenhar nos processos de desenvolvimento regional. Esse papel é abordado com base no argumento de que as dinâmicas de mudança no mundo académico assumem contornos revolucionários, configurados pela inserção do desenvolvimento económico na missão das universidades, em paralelo com o ensino e a investigação. O trabalho defende que a perspectiva dominante sobre as mudanças na missão académica, centrada quase exclusivamente nos processos de transferência de tecnologia entre as universidades e os tecidos produtivos regionais, negligencia vertentes da relação universidade-região que, tendo em conta a natureza e os desafios da sociedade contemporânea, assumem grande relevância. Assim, a dissertação propõe uma perspectiva alargada sobre a revolução académica, por forma a introduzir no debate recursos de desenvolvimento que as universidades podem fornecer às suas regiões e que, no âmbito da abordagem tradicional, são menosprezados. Para o efeito, a investigação incide sobre o papel das universidades na promoção da capacidade institucional das regiões, ou seja a combinação e mobilização de recursos de conhecimento e de recursos relacionais que sustentam a acção colectiva. O trabalho procura responder a quatro questões de investigação essenciais. A primeira refere-se ao papel que as universidades, como agentes de desenvolvimento económico, assumem nos processos de construção da capacidade institucional das regiões; a segunda prende-se com os arranjos organizacionais que estão a ser adoptados nas universidades como forma de enfrentar os desafios associados à nova missão académica; a terceira espelha a influência que as condições contextuais exercem sobre a intensidade e qualidade das relações universidade-região e explora a possibilidade da ocorrência de benefícios mútuos; a quarta questão aborda as particularidades que marcam o papel das universidades em regiões menos favorecidas. A investigação parte da conceptualização dos desafios inerentes aos processos de mudança da sociedade, os quais, no âmbito da dialéctica entre a ideia de sociedade e a idea de universidade, formatam a transformação da academia. De seguida, detalham-se a natureza e as implicações das mudanças na academia, identificam-se os problemas da abordagem tradicional a essas mudanças e sugere-se uma perspectiva mais abrangente sobre a segunda revolução académica. Os estudos de caso realizados em três universidades que operam em contextos territoriais diferenciados sustentam, do ponto de vista da praxis, as respostas às questões acima referidas e a formulação de conclusões sobre o papel que as universidades podem desempenhar nos processos de desenvolvimento regional e a sua natureza revolucionária.This dissertation aims to contribute to the advancement of the knowledge on the role universities play in regional development processes. It draws on the argument according to which there is an ongoing revolution in academia, configured by the integration of economic development in the mission realm of universities, together with teaching and research. Taking into account the nature and challenges of the contemporary dynamics of societal change, it asserts that the changing academic mission is being taken by dominant scholar approaches in a narrow, incomplete fashion, because almost exclusively focused on the technology transferred between universities and their regions’ productive fabric. In accordance, the dissertation proposes a broader perspective on the academic revolution, in order to introduce in the debate relevant regional development resources that universities can provide, which are left out of the mainstreamed picture. It does that by studying the part played by universities in the promotion of the regional capabilities needed to combine and mobilise the knowledge and relational resources that nourish the collective capacity for collective action, i.e., the resources and processes that build up regional institutional capacity. The research work aims to search for answers to four major questions, which ground the guiding inquiry line. The first relates to the role of regional development agents assumed by universities and the extent to which their agency makes them institutional capacity builders. The second focuses on the ways universities are organising themselves in order to deal with the challenges inherent to third mission activities. The third mirrors the contextual and mutually reinforcing nature of the university-region nexus. The fourth and final question addresses the particularities that expectably characterise universities’ regional engagement in less favoured regions. The dissertation takes as point of departure the conceptualisation and reasoning of the challenges associated with contemporary societal change, which, under the dialectics between the idea of the University and the idea of the Society, is shaping academic change. Drawing on the resulting scenery of academic change, it details the nature and implications of the revolutionary move in academia, identifies the shortages of the mainstream approach and introduces a new, broader perspective on the second academic revolution. The case studies undertaken in three universities operating in different European regional contexts offer a picture of the second academic revolution, in its extended version, taken from the point of view of practice. This picture provides the empirical evidence that configures the answers to the major research questions and underpins the conclusive remarks on the role of universities in regional development and its revolutionatry nature