Formalizing judgemental adjustment of model-based forecasts

In business and in macroeconomics it is common practice to use econo-metric models to generate forecasts. These models can take any degree ofsophistication. Sometimes it is felt by an expert that the model-based fore-cast needs adjustment. This paper makes a plea for a formal approach to suchan adjustment, more precise, for the creation of detailed logbooks which con-tain information on why and how model-based forecasts have been adjusted.The reasons for doing so are that such logbooks allow for (i) the preservationof expert knowledge, (ii) for the possible future modi¯cation of econometricmodels in case adjustment is almost always needed, and (iii) for the evaluationof adjusted forecasts. In this paper I put forward an explicit mathematicalexpression for a judgementally adjusted model-based forecast. The key pa-rameters in the expression should enter the logbook. In a limited simulationexperiment I illustrate an additional use of this expression, that is, lookingwith hindsight if adjustment would have led to better results. The resultsof the simulation suggest that always adjusting forecasts leads to very poorresults. Also, it is documented that small adjustments are better that largeadjustments, even in case large adjustments are felt necessary.forecasting;judgemental adjustment

Monitoring international migration flows in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources

The paper reviews techniques developed in demography, geography and statistics that are useful for bridging the gap between available data on international migration flows and the information required for policy making and research. The basic idea of the paper is as follows: to establish a coherent and consistent data base that contains sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and accurate information, data from several sources should be combined. That raises issues of definition and measurement, and of how to combine data from different origins properly. The issues may be tackled more easily if the statistics that are being compiled are viewed as different outcomes or manifestations of underlying stochastic processes governing migration. The link between the processes and their outcomes is described by models, the parameters of which must be estimated from the available data. That may be done within the context of socio-demographic accounting. The paper discusses the experience of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in combining migration data from several sources. It also summarizes the many efforts in Europe to establish a coherent and consistent data base on international migration. The paper was written at IIASA. It is part of the Migration Estimation Study, which is a collaborative IIASA-University of Groningen project, funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). The project aims at developing techniques to obtain improved estimates of international migration flows by country of origin and country of destination

Structuring the decision process : an evaluation of methods in the structuring the decision process

This chapter examines the effectiveness of methods that are designed to provide structure and support to decision making. Those that are primarily aimed at individual decision makers are examined first and then attention is turned to groups. In each case weaknesses of unaided decision making are identified and how successful the application of formal methods is likely to be in mitigating these weaknesses is assessed

Organic Farming in Europe by 2010: Scenarios for the future

How will organic farming in Europe evolve by the year 2010? The answer provides a basis for the development of different policy options and for anticipating the future relative competitiveness of organic and conventional farming. The authors tackle the question using an innovative approach based on scenario analysis, offering the reader a range of scenarios that encompass the main possible evolutions of the organic farming sector. This book constitutes an innovative and reliable decision-supporting tool for policy makers, farmers and the private sector. Researchers and students operating in the field of agricultural economics will also benefit from the methodological approach adopted for the scenario analysis

Multi crteria decision making and its applications : a literature review

This paper presents current techniques used in Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and their applications. Two basic approaches for MCDM, namely Artificial Intelligence MCDM (AIMCDM) and Classical MCDM (CMCDM) are discussed and investigated. Recent articles from international journals related to MCDM are collected and analyzed to find which approach is more common than the other in MCDM. Also, which area these techniques are applied to. Those articles are appearing in journals for the year 2008 only. This paper provides evidence that currently, both AIMCDM and CMCDM are equally common in MCDM

Exploiting Qualitative Information for Decision Support in Scenario Analysis

The development of scenario analysis (SA) to assist decision makers and stakeholders has been growing over the last few years through mainly exploiting qualitative information provided by experts. In this study, we present SA based on the use of qualitative data for strategy planning. We discuss the potential of SA as a decision-support tool, and provide a structured approach for the interpretation of SA data, and an empirical validation of expert evaluations that can help to measure the consistency of the analysis. An application to a specific case study is provided, with reference to the European organic farming business

Formalizing judgemental adjustment of model-based forecasts

In business and in macroeconomics it is common practice to use econo- metric models to generate forecasts. These models can take any degree of sophistication. Sometimes it is felt by an expert that the model-based fore- cast needs adjustment. This paper makes a plea for a formal approach to such an adjustment, more precise, for the creation of detailed logbooks which con- tain information on why and how model-based forecasts have been adjusted. The reasons for doing so are that such logbooks allow for (i) the preservation of expert knowledge, (ii) for the possible future modi¯cation of econometric models in case adjustment is almost always needed, and (iii) for the evaluation of adjusted forecasts. In this paper I put forward an explicit mathematical expression for a judgementally adjusted model-based forecast. The key pa- rameters in the expression should enter the logbook. In a limited simulation experiment I illustrate an additional use of this expression, that is, look

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON MEDIATED MULTI-ROUTES TR MODEL BASED ON SC PLATFORM

With the new era of intellectual economic, intellectual capital became the critical components of wealth creation. Core employees with higher organizational performance characteristics are often entitled Talent for their key networking status in creating the organizational intelligent capital values. They can also be competed hotly by other competitor in human capitall market. In the field of talents’ retention (TC), the empirical study of relationship-oriented between talents’ performance and voluntary turnover by modeling is taking lead way in highlighting the talents’ turnover mechanism. This paper, after survey in the cross- industries samples, developed talents’ performance characters- withdraw tendency model by introducing social capital (SC) construction and way of combination of the literature methodology and the empirical study.Talent retention, Social capital, Performance character, Withdraw tendency