Forecasting electricity consumption using SARIMA method in IBM SPSS software

Forecasting is a prediction of future values based on historical data. It can be conducted using various methods such as statistical methods or machine learning techniques. Electricity is a necessity of modern life. Hence, accurate forecasting of electricity demand is important. Overestimation will cause a waste of energy but underestimation leads to higher operation costs. Univesity Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM) is a developing Malaysian technical university, therefore there is a need to forecast UTHM electricity consumption for future decisions on generating electric power, load switching, and infrastructure development. The monthly UTHM electricity consumption data exhibits seasonality-periodic fluctuations. Thus, the seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method was applied in IBM SPSS software to predict UTHM electricity consumption for 2019 via Box-Jenkins method and Expert Modeler. There were a total of 120 observations taken from January year 2009 to December year 2018 to build the models. The best model from both methods is SARIMA(0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12. It was found that the result through the Box-Jenkins method is approximately the same with the result generated through Expert Modeler in SPSS with MAPE of 8.4%

The Revolution of Mobile Phone-Enabled Services for Agricultural Development (m-Agri Services) in Africa: The Challenges for Sustainability

The provision of information through mobile phone-enabled agricultural information services (m-Agri services) has the potential to revolutionise agriculture and significantly improve smallholder farmers’ livelihoods in Africa. Globally, the benefits of m-Agri services include facilitating farmers’ access to financial services and sourcing agricultural information about input use, practices, and market prices. There are very few published literature sources that focus on the potential benefits of m-Agri services in Africa and none of which explore their sustainability. This study, therefore, explores the evolution, provision, and sustainability of these m-Agri services in Africa. An overview of the current landscape of m-Agri services in Africa is provided and this illustrates how varied these services are in design, content, and quality. Key findings from the exploratory literature review reveal that services are highly likely to fail to achieve their intended purpose or be abandoned when implementers ignore the literacy, skills, culture, and demands of the target users. This study recommends that, to enhance the sustainability of m-Agri services, the implementers need to design the services with the users involved, carefully analyse, and understand the target environment, and design for scale and a long-term purpose. While privacy and security of users need to be ensured, the reuse or improvement of existing initiatives should be explored, and projects need to be data-driven and maintained as open source. Thus, the study concludes that policymakers can support the long-term benefit of m-Agri services by ensuring favourable policies for both users and implementers

Considering Vermont\u27s Future in a Changing Climate: The First Vermont Climate Assessment

The Vermont Climate Assessment (VCA) paints a vivid picture of a changing climate in Vermont and calls for immediate strategic planning to sustain the social, economic and environmental fabric of our state. The VCA is the first state-scale climate assessment in the country and speaks directly to the impacts of climate change as they pertain to our rural towns, cities and communities, including impacts on Vermont tourism and recreation, agriculture, natural resources and energy

Agricultural information dissemination using ICTs: a review and analysis of information dissemination models in China

Open Access funded by China Agricultural UniversityOver the last three decades, China’s agriculture sector has been transformed from the traditional to modern practice through the effective deployment of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs). Information processing and dissemination have played a critical role in this transformation process. Many studies in relation to agriculture information services have been conducted in China, but few of them have attempted to provide a comprehensive review and analysis of different information dissemination models and their applications. This paper aims to review and identify the ICT based information dissemination models in China and to share the knowledge and experience in applying emerging ICTs in disseminating agriculture information to farmers and farm communities to improve productivity and economic, social and environmental sustainability. The paper reviews and analyzes the development stages of China’s agricultural information dissemination systems and different mechanisms for agricultural information service development and operations. Seven ICT-based information dissemination models are identified and discussed. Success cases are presented. The findings provide a useful direction for researchers and practitioners in developing future ICT based information dissemination systems. It is hoped that this paper will also help other developing countries to learn from China’s experience and best practice in their endeavor of applying emerging ICTs in agriculture information dissemination and knowledge transfer

Rethinking communication in innovation processes: creating space for change in complex systems

Abstract: In innovation studies, communication received explicit attention in the context of studies on the adoption and diffusion of innovation that dominated the field in the 1940-1970 period. Since then, our theoretical understanding of both innovation and communication has changed markedly. However, a systematic rethinking of the role of communication in innovation processes is largely lacking. This article reconceptualises the role of everyday communication and communicative intervention in innovation processes, and discusses practical implications. It is argued that we need to broaden our perspective on the types of (communicatively supported) intermediation that an innovation process includes and requires. Keywords: innovation, communication, discursive space, intermediaries, everyday tal

Video in development : filming for rural change

This book is about using video in rural interventions for social change. It gives a glimpse into the many creative ways in which video can be used in rural development activities. Capitalising on experience in this field, the books aims to encourage development professionals to explore the potential of video in development, making it a more coherent, better understood and properly used development tool - in short, filming for rural change

Coping with Water Scarcity: What Role for Biotechnologies?

At a conference of the FAO Biotechnology Forum in 2007, 78 participants from 24 countries offered their views on agricultural biotechnologies and water scarcity, addressing the pros and cons of various methods and their potential application. These viewpoints are represented in this discussion paper, along with an introductory section that defines the issues to be discussed. Funders in the WASH sector can use this document to educate themselves about the potential gains to be made in supporting different types of scientific research and agricultural technology development