Performance Evaluation for the Sustainable Supply Chain Management

Supply chain SC activities transform natural resources, raw materials, and components into various finished products that are delivered to end customers. A high efficient SC would bring great benefits to an enterprise such as integrated resources, reduced logistics costs, improved logistics efficiency, and high quality of overall level of services. In contrast, an inefficient SC will bring additional transaction costs, information management costs, and resource waste, reduce the production capacity of all enterprises on the chain, and unsatisfactory customer relationships. So the evaluation of a SC is important for an enterprise to survive in a competitive market in a globalized business environment. Therefore, it is important to research the various methods, performance indicator systems, and technology for evaluating, monitoring, predicting, and optimizing the performance of a SC. A typical procedure of the performance evaluation (PE) of a SC is to use the established evaluation performance indicators, employ an analytical method, follow a given procedure, to carry out quantitatively or qualitatively comparative analysis to provide the objective and accurate evaluation of a SC performance in a selected operation period. Various research works have been carried out in proposing the performance indicator systems and methods for SC performance evaluations. But there are no widely accepted indicator systems that can be applied in practical SC performance evaluations due to the fact that the indicators in different systems have been defined without a common understanding of the meanings and the relationships between them, and they are nonlinear and very complicated

Improving Demand Forecasting: The Challenge of Forecasting Studies Comparability and a Novel Approach to Hierarchical Time Series Forecasting

Bedarfsprognosen sind in der Wirtschaft unerlässlich. Anhand des erwarteten Kundenbe-darfs bestimmen Firmen beispielsweise welche Produkte sie entwickeln, wie viele Fabri-ken sie bauen, wie viel Personal eingestellt wird oder wie viel Rohmaterial geordert wer-den muss. Fehleinschätzungen bei Bedarfsprognosen können schwerwiegende Auswir-kungen haben, zu Fehlentscheidungen führen, und im schlimmsten Fall den Bankrott einer Firma herbeiführen. Doch in vielen Fällen ist es komplex, den tatsächlichen Bedarf in der Zukunft zu antizipie-ren. Die Einflussfaktoren können vielfältig sein, beispielsweise makroökonomische Ent-wicklung, das Verhalten von Wettbewerbern oder technologische Entwicklungen. Selbst wenn alle Einflussfaktoren bekannt sind, sind die Zusammenhänge und Wechselwirkun-gen häufig nur schwer zu quantifizieren. Diese Dissertation trägt dazu bei, die Genauigkeit von Bedarfsprognosen zu verbessern. Im ersten Teil der Arbeit wird im Rahmen einer überfassenden Übersicht über das gesamte Spektrum der Anwendungsfelder von Bedarfsprognosen ein neuartiger Ansatz eingeführt, wie Studien zu Bedarfsprognosen systematisch verglichen werden können und am Bei-spiel von 116 aktuellen Studien angewandt. Die Vergleichbarkeit von Studien zu verbes-sern ist ein wesentlicher Beitrag zur aktuellen Forschung. Denn anders als bspw. in der Medizinforschung, gibt es für Bedarfsprognosen keine wesentlichen vergleichenden quan-titativen Meta-Studien. Der Grund dafür ist, dass empirische Studien für Bedarfsprognosen keine vereinheitlichte Beschreibung nutzen, um ihre Daten, Verfahren und Ergebnisse zu beschreiben. Wenn Studien hingegen durch systematische Beschreibung direkt miteinan-der verglichen werden können, ermöglicht das anderen Forschern besser zu analysieren, wie sich Variationen in Ansätzen auf die Prognosegüte auswirken – ohne die aufwändige Notwendigkeit, empirische Experimente erneut durchzuführen, die bereits in Studien beschrieben wurden. Diese Arbeit führt erstmals eine solche Systematik zur Beschreibung ein. Der weitere Teil dieser Arbeit behandelt Prognoseverfahren für intermittierende Zeitreihen, also Zeitreihen mit wesentlichem Anteil von Bedarfen gleich Null. Diese Art der Zeitreihen erfüllen die Anforderungen an Stetigkeit der meisten Prognoseverfahren nicht, weshalb gängige Verfahren häufig ungenügende Prognosegüte erreichen. Gleichwohl ist die Rele-vanz intermittierender Zeitreihen hoch – insbesondere Ersatzteile weisen dieses Bedarfs-muster typischerweise auf. Zunächst zeigt diese Arbeit in drei Studien auf, dass auch die getesteten Stand-der-Technik Machine Learning Ansätze bei einigen bekannten Datensät-zen keine generelle Verbesserung herbeiführen. Als wesentlichen Beitrag zur Forschung zeigt diese Arbeit im Weiteren ein neuartiges Verfahren auf: Der Similarity-based Time Series Forecasting (STSF) Ansatz nutzt ein Aggregation-Disaggregationsverfahren basie-rend auf einer selbst erzeugten Hierarchie statistischer Eigenschaften der Zeitreihen. In Zusammenhang mit dem STSF Ansatz können alle verfügbaren Prognosealgorithmen eingesetzt werden – durch die Aggregation wird die Stetigkeitsbedingung erfüllt. In Expe-rimenten an insgesamt sieben öffentlich bekannten Datensätzen und einem proprietären Datensatz zeigt die Arbeit auf, dass die Prognosegüte (gemessen anhand des Root Mean Square Error RMSE) statistisch signifikant um 1-5% im Schnitt gegenüber dem gleichen Verfahren ohne Einsatz von STSF verbessert werden kann. Somit führt das Verfahren eine wesentliche Verbesserung der Prognosegüte herbei. Zusammengefasst trägt diese Dissertation zum aktuellen Stand der Forschung durch die zuvor genannten Verfahren wesentlich bei. Das vorgeschlagene Verfahren zur Standardi-sierung empirischer Studien beschleunigt den Fortschritt der Forschung, da sie verglei-chende Studien ermöglicht. Und mit dem STSF Verfahren steht ein Ansatz bereit, der zuverlässig die Prognosegüte verbessert, und dabei flexibel mit verschiedenen Arten von Prognosealgorithmen einsetzbar ist. Nach dem Erkenntnisstand der umfassenden Literatur-recherche sind keine vergleichbaren Ansätze bislang beschrieben worden

Predictive Big Data Analytics for Supply Chain Demand Forecasting: Methods, Applications, and Research Opportunities

Big data analytics (BDA) in supply chain management (SCM) is receiving a growing attention. This is due to the fact that BDA has a wide range of applications in SCM, including customer behavior analysis, trend analysis, and demand prediction. In this survey, we investigate the predictive BDA applications in supply chain demand forecasting to propose a classification of these applications, identify the gaps, and provide insights for future research. We classify these algorithms and their applications in supply chain management into time-series forecasting, clustering, K-nearest-neighbors, neural networks, regression analysis, support vector machines, and support vector regression. This survey also points to the fact that the literature is particularly lacking on the applications of BDA for demand forecasting in the case of closed-loop supply chains (CLSCs) and accordingly highlights avenues for future research

Dynamics in Logistics

This open access book highlights the interdisciplinary aspects of logistics research. Featuring empirical, methodological, and practice-oriented articles, it addresses the modelling, planning, optimization and control of processes. Chiefly focusing on supply chains, logistics networks, production systems, and systems and facilities for material flows, the respective contributions combine research on classical supply chain management, digitalized business processes, production engineering, electrical engineering, computer science and mathematical optimization. To celebrate 25 years of interdisciplinary and collaborative research conducted at the Bremen Research Cluster for Dynamics in Logistics (LogDynamics), in this book hand-picked experts currently or formerly affiliated with the Cluster provide retrospectives, present cutting-edge research, and outline future research directions

Applications of Emerging Smart Technologies in Farming Systems: A Review

The future of farming systems depends mainly on adopting innovative intelligent and smart technologies The agricultural sector s growth and progress are more critical to human survival than any other industry Extensive multidisciplinary research is happening worldwide for adopting intelligent technologies in farming systems Nevertheless when it comes to handling realistic challenges in making autonomous decisions and predictive solutions in farming applications of Information Communications Technologies ICT need to be utilized more Information derived from data worked best on year-to-year outcomes disease risk market patterns prices or customer needs and ultimately facilitated farmers in decision-making to increase crop and livestock production Innovative technologies allow the analysis and correlation of information on seed quality soil types infestation agents weather conditions etc This review analysis highlights the concept methods and applications of various futuristic cognitive innovative technologies along with their critical roles played in different aspects of farming systems like Artificial Intelligence AI IoT Neural Networks utilization of unmanned vehicles UAV Big data analytics Blok chain technology et

Data-Driven Optimization Models for Feeder Bus Network Design

Urbanization is not a modern phenomenon. However, it is worthwhile to note that the world urban population growth curve has up till recently followed a quadratic-hyperbolic pattern (Korotayey and Khaltourina, 2006). As cities become larger and their population expand, large and growing metropolises have to face the enormous traffic demand. To alleviate the increasing traffic congestion, public transit has been considered as the ideal solution to such troubles and problems restricting urban development. The metro is a type of efficient, dependable and high-capacity public transport adapted in metropolises worldwide. At the same time, the residents from crowded cities migrated to the suburban since 1950s. Such sub-urbanization brings more decentralized travel demands and has challenged to the public transit system. Even the metro lines are extended from inner city to outer city, the commuters living in suburban still have difficulty to get to the rail station due to the limited transportation resources. It is becoming inevitable to develop the regional transit network such as feeder bus that picks up the passengers from various locations and transfer them to the metro stations or transportation hubs. The feeder bus will greatly improve the efficiency of metro stations whose service area in the suburban area is usually limited. Therefore, how to develop a well-integrated feeder system is becoming an important task to planners and engineers. Realizing the above critical issues, the dissertation focus on the feeder bus network design problem (FBNDP) and contributes to three main parts: 1. Develop a data-mining strategy to retrieve OD pair from the large scale of the cellphone data. The OD pairs are able to present the users’ daily behaver including the location of residence, workplace with the timestamp of each trip. The spatial distribution of urban rail transit user demand from the OD pair will help to support the establishment and optimization of the feeder bus network. The dissertation details the procedure of data acquisition and utilization. The machine leaning is applied to predict the travel demand in the future. 2. Present a mathematical model to design the appropriate service area and routing plans for a flexible feeder transit. The proposed model features in utilizing the real-world data input and simultaneously selecting bus stops and designing the route from those targeted stops to urban rail stops. 3. Propose an improved feeder bus network design model to provide precise service to the commuters. Considering the commuters are time-sensitive during the peak hours, the time-windows of each demand is taken in to account when generating the routes and the schedule of feeder bus system. The model aims to pick up the demand within the time-windows of the commuters’ departure time and drop off them within the reasonable time. The commuters will benefit from the shorter waiting time, shorter walking distance and efficient transfer timetable