Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle. An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287], [arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Hypermedia support for argumentation-based rationale: 15 years on from gIBIS and QOC

Having developed, used and evaluated some of the early IBIS-based approaches to design rationale (DR) such as gIBIS and QOC in the late 1980s/mid-1990s, we describe the subsequent evolution of the argumentation-based paradigm through software support, and perspectives drawn from modeling and meeting facilitation. Particular attention is given to the challenge of negotiating the overheads of capturing this form of rationale. Our approach has maintained a strong emphasis on keeping the representational scheme as simple as possible to enable real time meeting mediation and capture, attending explicitly to the skills required to use the approach well, particularly for the sort of participatory, multi-stakeholder requirements analysis demanded by many design problems. However, we can then specialize the notation and the way in which the tool is used in the service of specific methodologies, supported by a customizable hypermedia environment, and interoperable with other software tools. After presenting this approach, called Compendium, we present examples to illustrate the capabilities for support security argumentation in requirements engineering, template driven modeling for document generation, and IBIS-based indexing of and navigation around video records of meetings

Knowledge management support for enterprise distributed systems

Explosion of information and increasing demands on semantic processing web applications have software systems to their limits. To address the problem we propose a semantic based formal framework (ADP) that makes use of promising technologies to enable knowledge generation and retrieval. We argue that this approach is cost effective, as it reuses and builds on existing knowledge and structure. It is also a good starting point for creating an organisational memory and providing knowledge management functions

A Goal-based Framework for Contextual Requirements Modeling and Analysis

Requirements Engineering (RE) research often ignores, or presumes a uniform nature of the context in which the system operates. This assumption is no longer valid in emerging computing paradigms, such as ambient, pervasive and ubiquitous computing, where it is essential to monitor and adapt to an inherently varying context. Besides influencing the software, context may influence stakeholders' goals and their choices to meet them. In this paper, we propose a goal-oriented RE modeling and reasoning framework for systems operating in varying contexts. We introduce contextual goal models to relate goals and contexts; context analysis to refine contexts and identify ways to verify them; reasoning techniques to derive requirements reflecting the context and users priorities at runtime; and finally, design time reasoning techniques to derive requirements for a system to be developed at minimum cost and valid in all considered contexts. We illustrate and evaluate our approach through a case study about a museum-guide mobile information system

Semantic business process management: a vision towards using semantic web services for business process management

Business process management (BPM) is the approach to manage the execution of IT-supported business operations from a business expert's view rather than from a technical perspective. However, the degree of mechanization in BPM is still very limited, creating inertia in the necessary evolution and dynamics of business processes, and BPM does not provide a truly unified view on the process space of an organization. We trace back the problem of mechanization of BPM to an ontological one, i.e. the lack of machine-accessible semantics, and argue that the modeling constructs of semantic Web services frameworks, especially WSMO, are a natural fit to creating such a representation. As a consequence, we propose to combine SWS and BPM and create one consolidated technology, which we call semantic business process management (SBPM

Recruitment Market Trend Analysis with Sequential Latent Variable Models

Recruitment market analysis provides valuable understanding of industry-specific economic growth and plays an important role for both employers and job seekers. With the rapid development of online recruitment services, massive recruitment data have been accumulated and enable a new paradigm for recruitment market analysis. However, traditional methods for recruitment market analysis largely rely on the knowledge of domain experts and classic statistical models, which are usually too general to model large-scale dynamic recruitment data, and have difficulties to capture the fine-grained market trends. To this end, in this paper, we propose a new research paradigm for recruitment market analysis by leveraging unsupervised learning techniques for automatically discovering recruitment market trends based on large-scale recruitment data. Specifically, we develop a novel sequential latent variable model, named MTLVM, which is designed for capturing the sequential dependencies of corporate recruitment states and is able to automatically learn the latent recruitment topics within a Bayesian generative framework. In particular, to capture the variability of recruitment topics over time, we design hierarchical dirichlet processes for MTLVM. These processes allow to dynamically generate the evolving recruitment topics. Finally, we implement a prototype system to empirically evaluate our approach based on real-world recruitment data in China. Indeed, by visualizing the results from MTLVM, we can successfully reveal many interesting findings, such as the popularity of LBS related jobs reached the peak in the 2nd half of 2014, and decreased in 2015.Comment: 11 pages, 30 figure, SIGKDD 201