2,658 research outputs found
Requirement Risk Level Forecast Using Bayesian Networks Classifiers
Requirement engineering is a key issue in the development of a software project. Like any other development activity it is not without risks. This work is about the empirical study of risks of requirements by applying machine learning techniques, specifically Bayesian networks classifiers. We have defined several models to predict the risk level for a given requirement using three dataset that collect metrics taken from the requirement specifications of different projects. The classification accuracy of the Bayesian models obtained is evaluated and compared using several classification performance measures. The results of the experiments show that the Bayesians networks allow obtaining valid predictors. Specifically, a tree augmented network structure shows a competitive experimental performance in all datasets. Besides, the relations established between the variables collected to determine the level of risk in a requirement, match with those set by requirement engineers. We show that Bayesian networks are valid tools for the automation of risks assessment in requirement engineering
A Cost-sensitive Intelligent Prediction Model for Outsourced Software Project Risk
Outsourced software project is one of the main ways of software development, which is of high failure rate. Intelligent risk prediction model can help identify high risk project in time. However, the existing models are mostly based on such a hypothesis that all the cost of misclassification is equal, which is not consistent with the reality that in the domain of software project risk prediction, the cost of predicting a fail-prone project as a success-prone project is different from predicting a success-prone project as a fail-prone project. To the best of our knowledge, the cost-sensitive learning method has not yet been applied in the domain of outsourced software project risk management though it has been widely used in a variety of fields. Based on this situation, we selected five classifiers, and introduced cost-sensitive learning method to build intelligent prediction models respectively. This paper totally collected 292 real data of outsourced software project for modeling. Experiment results showed that, under cost-sensitive scenario, the polynomial kernel support vector machine is the best classifier for outsourced software project risk prediction among the five classifiers due to its high prediction accuracy, stability and low cost
Enhanced Prediction of Network Attacks Using Incomplete Data
For years, intrusion detection has been considered a key component of many organizationsâ network defense capabilities. Although a number of approaches to intrusion detection have been tried, few have been capable of providing security personnel responsible for the protection of a network with sufficient information to make adjustments and respond to attacks in real-time. Because intrusion detection systems rarely have complete information, false negatives and false positives are extremely common, and thus valuable resources are wasted responding to irrelevant events. In order to provide better actionable information for security personnel, a mechanism for quantifying the confidence level in predictions is needed. This work presents an approach which seeks to combine a primary prediction model with a novel secondary confidence level model which provides a measurement of the confidence in a given attack prediction being made. The ability to accurately identify an attack and quantify the confidence level in the prediction could serve as the basis for a new generation of intrusion detection devices, devices that provide earlier and better alerts for administrators and allow more proactive response to events as they are occurring
Forecasting and Forecast Combination in Airline Revenue Management Applications
Predicting a variable for a future point in time helps planning for unknown
future situations and is common practice in many areas such as economics, finance,
manufacturing, weather and natural sciences. This paper investigates and compares
approaches to forecasting and forecast combination that can be applied to service
industry in general and to airline industry in particular. Furthermore, possibilities to
include additionally available data like passenger-based information are discussed
The Classification of Workforce Requirement Planning for Service Oriented Operations
In todayâs world of competitive international economy sectors, service industry orservice sector oriented businesses, the key point is to maximize the efficiency and sustainability of the business directly related with optimal planning of the workload and distributing them among the employees. Helpdesks and operation centers are one of the fastest developing service area of this sector. This paper compares the machine learning algorithms that can be used for the classification of workforce requirements for a bank operation center which provides support to reduce operational workload of bank branches. Classification of the workload based on the quantity of Money Order and EFT operations within time zones aids in the management of workforce teams and distribution of jobs between team members
Accident prediction using machine learning:analyzing weather conditions, and model performance
Abstract. The primary focus of this study was to investigate the impact of weather and road conditions on the severity of accidents and to determine the feasibility of machine learning models in accurately predicting the likelihood of such incidents. The research was centered on two key research questions.
Firstly, the study examined the influence of weather and road conditions on accident severity and identified the most related factors contributing to accidents. We utilized an open-source accident dataset, which was preprocessed using techniques like variable selection, missing data elimination, and data balancing through the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE). Chi-square statistical analysis was performed, suggesting that all weather-related variables are more or less associated with the severity of accidents. Visibility and temperature were found to be the most critical factors affecting the severity of road accidents. Hence, appropriate measures such as implementing effective fog dispersal systems, heatwave alerts, or improved road maintenance during extreme temperatures could help reduce accident severity.
Secondly, the research evaluated the ability of machine learning models including decision trees, random forests, naive bayes, extreme gradient boost, and neural networks to predict accident likelihood. The modelsâ performance was gauged using metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. The Random Forest model emerged as the most reliable and accurate model for predicting accidents, with an overall accuracy of 98.53%. The Decision Tree model also showed high overall accuracy (95.33%), indicating its reliability. However, the Naive Bayes model showed the lowest accuracy (63.31%) and was deemed less reliable in this context.
It is concluded that machine learning models can be effectively used to predict the likelihood of accidents, with models like Random Forest and Decision Tree proving the most effective. However, the effectiveness of each model may vary depending on the dataset and context, necessitating further testing and validation for real-world implementation.
These findings not only provide insight into the factors affecting accident severity but also open a promising avenue in employing machine learning techniques for proactive accident prediction and mitigation. Future studies can aim to refine the models further and potentially integrate them into traffic management systems to enhance road safety
Machine learning in dam water research: an overview of applications and approaches
Dam plays a crucial role in water security. A sustainable dam intends to balance a range of resources involves within a dam operation. Among the factors to maintain sustainability is to maintain and manage the water assets in dams. Water asset management in dams includes a process to ensure the planned maintenance can be conducted and assets such as pipes, pumps and motors can be mended, substituted, or upgraded when needed within the allocated budgetary. Nowadays, most water asset management systems collect and process data for data analysis and decision-making. Machine learning (ML) is an emerging concept applied to fulfill the requirement in engineering applications such as dam water researches. ML can analyze vast volumes of data and through an ML model built from algorithms, ML can learn, recognize and produce accurate results and analysis. The result brings meaningful insights for water asset management specifically to strategize the optimal solution based on the forecast or prediction. For example, a preventive maintenance for replacing water assets according to the prediction from the ML model. We will discuss the approaches of machine learning in recent dam water research and review the emerging issues to manage water assets in dams in this paper
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