Bayesian belief network model for the safety assessment of nuclear computer-based systems

The formalism of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) is being increasingly applied to probabilistic modelling and decision problems in a widening variety of fields. This method provides the advantages of a formal probabilistic model, presented in an easily assimilated visual form, together with the ready availability of efficient computational methods and tools for exploring model consequences. Here we formulate one BBN model of a part of the safety assessment task for computer and software based nuclear systems important to safety. Our model is developed from the perspective of an independent safety assessor who is presented with the task of evaluating evidence from disparate sources: the requirement specification and verification documentation of the system licensee and of the system manufacturer; the previous reputation of the various participants in the design process; knowledge of commercial pressures;information about tools and resources used; and many other sources. Based on these multiple sources of evidence, the independent assessor is ultimately obliged to make a decision as to whether or not the system should be licensed for operation within a particular nuclear plant environment. Our BBN model is a contribution towards a formal model of this decision problem. We restrict attention to a part of this problem: the safety analysis of the Computer System Specification documentation. As with other BBN applications we see this modelling activity as having several potential benefits. It employs a rigorous formalism as a focus for examination, discussion, and criticism of arguments about safety. It obliges the modeller to be very explicit about assumptions concerning probabilistic dependencies, correlations, and causal relationships. It allows sensitivity analyses to be carried out. Ultimately we envisage this BBN, or some later development of it, forming part of a larger model, which might well take the form of a larger BBN model, covering all sources of evidence about pre-operational life-cycle stages. This could provide an integrated model of all aspects of the task of the independent assessor, leading up to the final judgement about system safety in a particular context. We expect to offer some results of this further work later in the DeVa project

System design and maintenance modelling for safety in extended life operation

It is frequently the most cost effective option to operate systems and infrastructure over an extended life period rather than enter a new build programme. The condition and performance of existing systems operated beyond their originally intended design life are controlled through maintenance. For new systems there is the option to simultaneously develop the design and the maintenance processes for best effect when a longer life expectancy is planned. This paper reports a combined Petri net and Bayesian network approach to investigate the effects of design and maintenance features on the system performance. The method has a number of features which overcome limitations in traditionally used system performance modelling techniques, such as fault tree analysis, and also enhances the modelling capabilities. Significantly, for the assessment of aging systems, the new method avoids the need to assume a constant failure rate over the lifetime duration. In addition the assumption of independence between component failures events is no longer required. In comparison with the commonly applied system modelling techniques, this new methodology also has the capability to represent the maintenance process in far greater detail and as such options for: inspection and testing, servicing, reactive repair and component replacement based on condition, age or use can all be included. In considering system design options, levels of redundancy and diversity along with the component types selected can be investigated. All of the options for the design and maintenance can be incorporated into a single integrated Petri net and Bayesian network model and turned on and off as required to predict the effects of any combination of options selected. In addition this model has the ability to evaluate different system failure modes. The integrated Petri-net and Bayesian network approach is demonstrated through application to a remote un-manned wellhead platform from the oil and gas industry

Using Agent-Based Simulations to Evaluate Bayesian Networks for Criminal Scenarios

Scenario-based Bayesian networks (BNs) have been proposed as a tool for the rational handling of evidence. The proper evaluation of existing methods requires access to a ground truth that can be used to test the quality and usefulness of a BN model of a crime. However, that would require a full probability distribution over all relevant variables used in the model, which is in practice not available. In this paper, we use an agent-based simulation as a proxy for the ground truth for the evaluation of BN models as tools for the rational handling of evidence. We use fictional crime scenarios as a background. First, we design manually constructed BNs using existing design methods in order to model example crime scenarios. Second, we build an agent-based simulation covering the scenarios of criminal and non-criminal behavior. Third, we algorithmically determine BNs using statistics collected experimentally from the agent-based simulation that represents the ground truth. Finally, we compare the manual, scenario-based BNs to the algorithmic BNs by comparing the posterior probability distribution over outcomes of the network to the ground-truth frequency distribution over those outcomes in the simulation, across all evidence valuations. We find that both manual BNs and algorithmic BNs perform similarly well: they are good reflections of the ground truth in most of the evidence valuations. Using ABMs as a ground truth can be a tool to investigate Bayesian Networks and their design methods, especially under circumstances that are implausible in real-life criminal cases, such as full probabilistic information.</p

A bayesian belief networks approach to risk control in construction projects

Although risk control is a key step in risk management of construction projects, very often risk measures used are based merely on personal experience and engineering judgement rather than analysis of comprehensive information relating to a specific risk. This paper deals with an approach to provide better information to derive relevant and effective risk measures for specific risks. The approach relies on developing risk models to represent interactions between risk factors and carrying out analysis to identify critical factors on which risk measures must focus. To ameliorate the problem related to the scarcity of risks information often encountered in construction projects, Bayesian Belief Networks are used and expert knowledge is elicited to augment available information. The paper describes proposed modifications to the standard methods used to develop Bayesian Belief Networks in order to deal with divergent information originated from epistemic uncertainty of risks. The\ud capacity of the proposed approach to provide better information to support risk related decision making is verified by means of an illustrative application to risk factors involved in the construction of cross passages between tunnels tubes in soft soils

Use of evidential reasoning for eliciting bayesian subjective probabilities in human reliability analysis: A maritime case

Modelling the interdependencies among the factors influencing human error (e.g. the common performance conditions (CPCs) in Cognitive Reliability Error Analysis Method (CREAM)) stimulates the use of Bayesian Networks (BNs) in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA). However, subjective probability elicitation for a BN is often a daunting and complex task. To create conditional probability values for each given variable in a BN requires a high degree of knowledge and engineering effort, often from a group of domain experts. This paper presents a novel hybrid approach for incorporating the evidential reasoning (ER) approach with BNs to facilitate HRA under incomplete data. The kernel of this approach is to develop the best and the worst possible conditional subjective probabilities of the nodes representing the factors influencing HRA when using BNs in human error probability (HEP). The proposed hybrid approach is demonstrated by using CREAM to estimate HEP in the maritime area. The findings from the hybrid ER-BN model can effectively facilitate HEP analysis in specific and decision-making under uncertainty in general

Treatment of missing data in Bayesian network structure learning : an application to linked biomedical and social survey data

The authors acknowledge the Research/Scientific Computing teams at The James Hutton Institute and NIAB for providing computational resources and technical support for the “UK’s Crop Diversity Bioinformatics HPC” (BBSRC grant BB/S019669/1), use of which has contributed to the results reported within this paper. Access to this was provided via the University of St Andrews Bioinformatics Unit which is funded by a Wellcome Trust ISSF award (grant 105621/Z/14/Z and 204821/Z/16/Z). XK was supported by a World-Leading PhD Scholarship from St Leonard’s Postgraduate School of the University of St Andrews. VAS and KK were partially supported by HATUA, The Holistic Approach to Unravel Antibacterial Resistance in East Africa, a three-year Global Context Consortia Award (MR/S004785/1) funded by the National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council and the Department of Health and Social Care. KK is supported by the Academy of Medical Sciences, the Wellcome Trust, the Government Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, the British Heart Foundation Diabetes UK, and the Global Challenges Research Fund [Grant number SBF004\1093]. KK is additionally supported by the Economic and Social Research Council HIGHLIGHT CPC- Connecting Generations Centre [Grant number ES/W002116/1].Background Availability of linked biomedical and social science data has risen dramatically in past decades, facilitating holistic and systems-based analyses. Among these, Bayesian networks have great potential to tackle complex interdisciplinary problems, because they can easily model inter-relations between variables. They work by encoding conditional independence relationships discovered via advanced inference algorithms. One challenge is dealing with missing data, ubiquitous in survey or biomedical datasets. Missing data is rarely addressed in an advanced way in Bayesian networks; the most common approach is to discard all samples containing missing measurements. This can lead to biased estimates. Here, we examine how Bayesian network structure learning can incorporate missing data. Methods We use a simulation approach to compare a commonly used method in frequentist statistics, multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE), with one specific for Bayesian network learning, structural expectation-maximization (SEM). We simulate multiple incomplete categorical (discrete) data sets with different missingness mechanisms, variable numbers, data amount, and missingness proportions. We evaluate performance of MICE and SEM in capturing network structure. We then apply SEM combined with community analysis to a real-world dataset of linked biomedical and social data to investigate associations between socio-demographic factors and multiple chronic conditions in the US elderly population. Results We find that applying either method (MICE or SEM) provides better structure recovery than doing nothing, and SEM in general outperforms MICE. This finding is robust across missingness mechanisms, variable numbers, data amount and missingness proportions. We also find that imputed data from SEM is more accurate than from MICE. Our real-world application recovers known inter-relationships among socio-demographic factors and common multimorbidities. This network analysis also highlights potential areas of investigation, such as links between cancer and cognitive impairment and disconnect between self-assessed memory decline and standard cognitive impairment measurement. Conclusion Our simulation results suggest taking advantage of the additional information provided by network structure during SEM improves the performance of Bayesian networks; this might be especially useful for social science and other interdisciplinary analyses. Our case study show that comorbidities of different diseases interact with each other and are closely associated with socio-demographic factors.PostprintPublisher PDFPeer reviewe

Modeling Earthen Dike Stability: Sensitivity Analysis and Automatic Calibration of Diffusivities Based on Live Sensor Data

The paper describes concept and implementation details of integrating a finite element module for dike stability analysis Virtual Dike into an early warning system for flood protection. The module operates in real-time mode and includes fluid and structural sub-models for simulation of porous flow through the dike and for dike stability analysis. Real-time measurements obtained from pore pressure sensors are fed into the simulation module, to be compared with simulated pore pressure dynamics. Implementation of the module has been performed for a real-world test case - an earthen levee protecting a sea-port in Groningen, the Netherlands. Sensitivity analysis and calibration of diffusivities have been performed for tidal fluctuations. An algorithm for automatic diffusivities calibration for a heterogeneous dike is proposed and studied. Analytical solutions describing tidal propagation in one-dimensional saturated aquifer are employed in the algorithm to generate initial estimates of diffusivities