97,910 research outputs found

    Short- and mid-term prospects of the main agricultural sectors in Hungary: a model based analysis with a methodological overview

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    In our paper, we briefly discuss the outlook for the main agricultural sectors in Hungary until 2013, and present some of the latest results of our modelling work at the Research Institute for Agricultural Economics (AKI). In addition, we provide a short methodological overview of the applied modelling tools. To strengthen the quantitative analysis capacity during the pre-accession period, AKI developed a partial equilibrium model (Hungarian Simulation Model or HUSIM) by the end of the 1990's. Since then, AKI has been regularly carrying out agricultural policy analyses by applying this economic model. After gathering experiences with HUSIM, strong demand was raised on a modelling tool that enables us to investigate the structural changes in agriculture in more depth by focusing on the main sectors and their interrelationships. According to this concept, a partial equilibrium model, FARM-T was developed, which uses farm groups as agents to investigate the changes in agricultural output and the underlying structural progress. The first part of our paper describes the concept and structure of this model in more detail. In the second part, we focus our investigation on the changes in production structure and competitiveness on domestic and foreign markets. Only a few years after EU accession, Hungarian farmers again face considerable challenges: due to the full or partial decoupling of Complementary National Direct Payments already in 2007, the expected introduction of the Single Payment Scheme (SPS) in 2009, the probable abolishing of the EU cereals intervention regime, and the compulsory blending of bio-fuels, major changes in the agricultural sectors are foreseen. But structural problems and the lack of capital for modernization may slow down the adjustment process.mid-term prospects, decoupling, farm group model, FARM-T, Hungary., Farm Management,

    PROJECTING THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ON THE DEMAND FOR AND DELIVERY OF HEALTH CARE IN IRELAND. RESEARCH SERIES NUMBER 13 OCTOBER 2009

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    Primary care is often the first point of contact with the health care system for people requiring care. Primary care is often thought synonymous with general practitioners, but actually encompasses a large range of different professionals and services including nurses/midwives; physiotherapists; occupational therapists; dentists; opticians; chiropodists; psychologists and pharmacists. The list is not exhaustive, but still gives an indication of the wide range of services that can be grouped under the general heading of primary care. Nonetheless, GPs do have a core part to play in primary care as well as performing the role of ‘gate keeper’ to other health services such as accident and emergency or outpatient care in hospitals. The balance of treatment and referral between general practice and secondary care is, therefore, a very important issue and it has been argued that the under development of primary care services in Ireland in recent decades has contributed, and indeed, may be the most important reason, for the over-crowding of accident and emergency services and long waiting lists for elective procedures in Irish health care (Layte et al., 2007b; Tussing and Wren, 2006)

    Deriving CGE Baselines from Macro-economic Projections

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    Quantitative policy analysts are usually confronted with the problem to derive a base-line scenario that reflects the most likely state of an economy in a future year. The methods used in practice to derive such a base-line scenarios are heterogeneous and range from the usage of the last observable year to complete and consistent estimation procedures. In the case of general equilibrium (CGE) analyses, the Scenar2020 project (European Commission 2006a) is one example how projections of macro-economic indicators (exogenous drivers) are used to construct the base-line as a model scenario: Starting from a calibrated version, exogenous variables are modified until macro-economic projections are met. However, numerous projections refer to economic indicators which are endogenous variables within the CGE framework, such as gross domestic product (GDP), market prices, or produced quantities. To investigate methods that allow integrating projections for endogenous CGE variables is the main topic of this study. Our starting point is the work by Arndt et al (2002), where entropy-based (Golan et al 1996) techniques are employed for the estimation of behavioural parameters by fitting a CGE model to time series on endogenous variables. Following this concept, we investigate a method to fit a CGEÂŽs parameters and endogenous variables to market- and macro-economic projections from major research institutes.general equilibrium model, baseline construction, parameter estimation, macro-economic projections, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

    Model closure and price formation under switching grain market regimes in South Africa

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    This paper develops the structure and closure of an econometric regime-switching model within a partial equilibrium framework that has the ability to generate reliable estimates and projections of endogenous variables under market switching regimes. Models used in policy evaluation usually either ignore the possibility of regime switching using just a single method of price determination based on average effects, or incorporate highly stylised components that may not reflect the complexities of a particular market. This paper proposes an approach that the authors believe allows the incorporation of features of regime switching in a multisector commodity level model that capture salient features of the South African market and therefore are able to produce more reliable projections of the evolution of the sector under alternative shocks.Crop Production/Industries, Marketing,

    Model Closure and Price Formation Under Switching Grain Market Regimes in South Africa

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    This paper develops the structure and closure of an econometric regime-switching model within a partial equilibrium framework that has the ability to generate reliable estimates and projections of endogenous variables under market switching regimes. Models used in policy evaluation usually either ignore the possibility of regime switching using just a single method of price determination based on average effects, or incorporate highly stylised components that may not reflect the complexities of a particular market. This paper proposes an approach that the authors believe allows the incorporation of features of regime switching in a multisector commodity level model that capture salient features of the South African market and therefore are able to produce more reliable projections of the evolution of the sector under alternative shocks.Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

    Impact analysis of the CAP reform on main agricultural commodities

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    End of project reportThis study has been carried out for the European Commission's Joint Research Centre to analyze agricultural policies at Member State, EU15 and EU25 levels as well as for Bulgaria and Romania. The modelling tool allows for projections and policy analysis (up to a 10 year horizon) for the enlarged EU.This study has been carried out for the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, under Contract no 150267-2005-FIED-N

    Benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation on the supply, management, and use of water resources in the United States

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    Climate change impacts on water resources in the United States are likely to be far-reaching and substantial because the water is integral to climate, and the water sector spans many parts of the economy. This paper estimates impacts and damages from five water resource-related models addressing runoff, drought risk, economics of water supply/demand, water stress, and flooding damages. The models differ in the water system assessed, spatial scale, and unit of assessment, but together provide a quantitative and descriptive richness in characterizing water sector effects that no single model can capture. The results, driven by a consistent set of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and climate scenarios, examine uncertainty from emissions, climate sensitivity, and climate model selection. While calculating the net impact of climate change on the water sector as a whole may be impractical, broad conclusions can be drawn regarding patterns of change and benefits of GHG mitigation. Four key findings emerge: 1) GHG mitigation substantially reduces hydro-climatic impacts on the water sector; 2) GHG mitigation provides substantial national economic benefits in water resources related sectors; 3) the models show a strong signal of wetting for the Eastern US and a strong signal of drying in the Southwest; and 4) unmanaged hydrologic systems impacts show strong correlation with the change in magnitude and direction of precipitation and temperature from climate models, but managed water resource systems and regional economic systems show lower correlation with changes in climate variables due to non-linearities created by water infrastructure and the socio-economic changes in non-climate driven water demand
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