Distribution-free stochastic simulation methodology for model updating under hybrid uncertainties

In the real world, a significant challenge faced in the safe operation and maintenance of infrastructures is the lack of available information or data. This results in a large degree of uncertainty and the requirement for robust and efficient uncertainty quantification (UQ) tools in order to derive the most realistic estimates of the behavior of structures. While the probabilistic approach has long been utilized as an essential tool for the quantitative mathematical representation of uncertainty, a common criticism is that the approach often involves insubstantiated subjective assumptions because of the scarcity or imprecision of available information. To avoid the inclusion of subjectivity, the concepts of imprecise probabilities have been developed, and the distributional probability-box (p-box) has gained the most attention among various types of imprecise probability models since it can straightforwardly provide a clear separation between aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. This thesis concerns the realistic consideration and numerically efficient calibraiton and propagation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties (hybrid uncertainties) based on the distributional p-box. The recent developments including the Bhattacharyya distance-based approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and non-intrusive imprecise stochastic simulation (NISS) methods have strengthened the subjective assumption-free approach for uncertainty calibration and propagation. However, these methods based on the distributional p-box stand on the availability of the prior knowledge determining a specific distribution family for the p-box. The target of this thesis is hence to develop a distribution-free approach for the calibraiton and propagation of hybrid uncertainties, strengthening the subjective assumption-free UQ approach. To achieve the above target, this thesis presents five main developments to improve the Bhattacharyya distance-based ABC and NISS frameworks. The first development is on improving the scope of application and efficiency of the Bhattacharyya distance-based ABC. The dimension reduction procedure is proposed to evaluate the Bhattacharyya distance when the system under investigation is described by time-domain sequences. Moreover, the efficient Bayesian inference method within the Bayesian updating with structural reliability methods (BUS) framework is developed by combining BUS with the adaptive Kriging-based reliability method, namely AK-MCMC. The second development of the distribution-free stochastic model updating framework is based on the combined application of the staircase density functions and the Bhattacharyya distance. The staircase density functions can approximate a wide range of distributions arbitrarily close; hence the development achieved to perform the Bhattacharyya distance-based ABC without limiting hypotheses on the distribution families of the parameters having to be updated. The aforementioned two developments are then integrated in the third development to provide a solution to the latest edition (2019) of the NASA UQ challenge problem. The model updating tasks under very challenging condition, where prior information of aleatory parameters are extremely limited other than a common boundary, are successfully addressed based on the above distribution-free stochastic model updating framework. Moreover, the NISS approach that simplifies the high-dimensional optimization to a set of one-dimensional searching by a first-order high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) decomposition with respect to each design parameter is developed to efficiently solve the reliability-based design optimization tasks. This challenge, at the same time, elucidates the limitations of the current developments, hence the fourth development aims at addressing the limitation that the staircase density functions are designed for univariate random variables and cannot acount for the parameter dependencies. In order to calibrate the joint distribution of correlated parameters, the distribution-free stochastic model updating framework is extended by characterizing the aleatory parameters using the Gaussian copula functions having marginal distributions as the staircase density functions. This further strengthens the assumption-free approach for uncertainty calibration in which no prior information of the parameter dependencies is required. Finally, the fifth development of the distribution-free uncertainty propagation framework is based on another application of the staircase density functions to the NISS class of methods, and it is applied for efficiently solving the reliability analysis subproblem of the NASA UQ challenge 2019. The above five developments have successfully strengthened the assumption-free approach for both uncertainty calibration and propagation thanks to the nature of the staircase density functions approximating arbitrary distributions. The efficiency and effectiveness of those developments are sufficiently demonstrated upon the real-world applications including the NASA UQ challenge 2019

Sistemas granulares evolutivos

Orientador: Fernando Antonio Campos GomideTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de ComputaçãoResumo: Recentemente tem-se observado um crescente interesse em abordagens de modelagem computacional para lidar com fluxos de dados do mundo real. Métodos e algoritmos têm sido propostos para obtenção de conhecimento a partir de conjuntos de dados muito grandes e, a princípio, sem valor aparente. Este trabalho apresenta uma plataforma computacional para modelagem granular evolutiva de fluxos de dados incertos. Sistemas granulares evolutivos abrangem uma variedade de abordagens para modelagem on-line inspiradas na forma com que os humanos lidam com a complexidade. Esses sistemas exploram o fluxo de informação em ambiente dinâmico e extrai disso modelos que podem ser linguisticamente entendidos. Particularmente, a granulação da informação é uma técnica natural para dispensar atenção a detalhes desnecessários e enfatizar transparência, interpretabilidade e escalabilidade de sistemas de informação. Dados incertos (granulares) surgem a partir de percepções ou descrições imprecisas do valor de uma variável. De maneira geral, vários fatores podem afetar a escolha da representação dos dados tal que o objeto representativo reflita o significado do conceito que ele está sendo usado para representar. Neste trabalho são considerados dados numéricos, intervalares e fuzzy; e modelos intervalares, fuzzy e neuro-fuzzy. A aprendizagem de sistemas granulares é baseada em algoritmos incrementais que constroem a estrutura do modelo sem conhecimento anterior sobre o processo e adapta os parâmetros do modelo sempre que necessário. Este paradigma de aprendizagem é particularmente importante uma vez que ele evita a reconstrução e o retreinamento do modelo quando o ambiente muda. Exemplos de aplicação em classificação, aproximação de função, predição de séries temporais e controle usando dados sintéticos e reais ilustram a utilidade das abordagens de modelagem granular propostas. O comportamento de fluxos de dados não-estacionários com mudanças graduais e abruptas de regime é também analisado dentro do paradigma de computação granular evolutiva. Realçamos o papel da computação intervalar, fuzzy e neuro-fuzzy em processar dados incertos e prover soluções aproximadas de alta qualidade e sumário de regras de conjuntos de dados de entrada e saída. As abordagens e o paradigma introduzidos constituem uma extensão natural de sistemas inteligentes evolutivos para processamento de dados numéricos a sistemas granulares evolutivos para processamento de dados granularesAbstract: In recent years there has been increasing interest in computational modeling approaches to deal with real-world data streams. Methods and algorithms have been proposed to uncover meaningful knowledge from very large (often unbounded) data sets in principle with no apparent value. This thesis introduces a framework for evolving granular modeling of uncertain data streams. Evolving granular systems comprise an array of online modeling approaches inspired by the way in which humans deal with complexity. These systems explore the information flow in dynamic environments and derive from it models that can be linguistically understood. Particularly, information granulation is a natural technique to dispense unnecessary details and emphasize transparency, interpretability and scalability of information systems. Uncertain (granular) data arise from imprecise perception or description of the value of a variable. Broadly stated, various factors can affect one's choice of data representation such that the representing object conveys the meaning of the concept it is being used to represent. Of particular concern to this work are numerical, interval, and fuzzy types of granular data; and interval, fuzzy, and neurofuzzy modeling frameworks. Learning in evolving granular systems is based on incremental algorithms that build model structure from scratch on a per-sample basis and adapt model parameters whenever necessary. This learning paradigm is meaningful once it avoids redesigning and retraining models all along if the system changes. Application examples in classification, function approximation, time-series prediction and control using real and synthetic data illustrate the usefulness of the granular approaches and framework proposed. The behavior of nonstationary data streams with gradual and abrupt regime shifts is also analyzed in the realm of evolving granular computing. We shed light upon the role of interval, fuzzy, and neurofuzzy computing in processing uncertain data and providing high-quality approximate solutions and rule summary of input-output data sets. The approaches and framework introduced constitute a natural extension of evolving intelligent systems over numeric data streams to evolving granular systems over granular data streamsDoutoradoAutomaçãoDoutor em Engenharia Elétric

Cost-Sensitive Learning-based Methods for Imbalanced Classification Problems with Applications

Analysis and predictive modeling of massive datasets is an extremely significant problem that arises in many practical applications. The task of predictive modeling becomes even more challenging when data are imperfect or uncertain. The real data are frequently affected by outliers, uncertain labels, and uneven distribution of classes (imbalanced data). Such uncertainties create bias and make predictive modeling an even more difficult task. In the present work, we introduce a cost-sensitive learning method (CSL) to deal with the classification of imperfect data. Typically, most traditional approaches for classification demonstrate poor performance in an environment with imperfect data. We propose the use of CSL with Support Vector Machine, which is a well-known data mining algorithm. The results reveal that the proposed algorithm produces more accurate classifiers and is more robust with respect to imperfect data. Furthermore, we explore the best performance measures to tackle imperfect data along with addressing real problems in quality control and business analytics

Individual Differences In Value-Based Decision-Making: Learning And Time Preference

Human decisions are strongly influenced by past experience or by the subjective values attributed to available choice options. Although decision processes show some common trends across individuals, they also vary considerably between individuals. The research presented in this dissertation focuses on two domains of decision-making, related to learning and time preference, and examines factors that explain decision-making differences between individuals. First, we focus on a form of reinforcement learning in a dynamic environment. Across three experiments, we investigated whether individual differences in learning were associated with differences in cognitive abilities, personality, and age. Participants made sequential predictions about an on-screen location in a video game. Consistent with previous work, participants showed high variability in their ability to implement normative strategies related to surprise and uncertainty. We found that higher cognitive ability, but not personality, was associated with stronger reliance on the normative factors that should govern learning. Furthermore, learning in older adults (age 60+) was less influenced by uncertainty, but also less influenced by reward, a non-normative factor that has substantial effects on learning across the lifespan. Second, we focus on delay discounting, the tendency to prefer smaller rewards delivered soon over larger rewards delivered after a delay. Delay discounting has been used as a behavioral measure of impulsivity and is associated with many undesirable real-life outcomes. Specifically, we examined how neuroanatomy is associated with individual differences in delay discounting in a large adolescent sample. Using a novel multivariate method, we identified networks where cortical thickness varied consistently across individuals and brain regions. Cortical thickness in several of these networks, including regions such as ventromedial prefrontal cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, and temporal pole, was negatively associated with delay discounting. Furthermore, this brain data predicted differences beyond those typically accounted for by other cognitive variables related to delay discounting. These results suggest that cortical thickness may be a useful brain phenotype of delay discounting and carry unique information about impulsivity. Collectively, this research furthers our understanding of how cognitive abilities, brain structure and healthy aging relate to individual differences in value-based decision-making

Emergence of sensory attenuation based upon the free-energy principle

The brain attenuates its responses to self-produced exteroceptions (e.g., we cannot tickle ourselves). Is this phenomenon, known as sensory attenuation, enabled innately, or acquired through learning? Here, our simulation study using a multimodal hierarchical recurrent neural network model, based on variational free-energy minimization, shows that a mechanism for sensory attenuation can develop through learning of two distinct types of sensorimotor experience, involving self-produced or externally produced exteroceptions. For each sensorimotor context, a particular free-energy state emerged through interaction between top-down prediction with precision and bottom-up sensory prediction error from each sensory area. The executive area in the network served as an information hub. Consequently, shifts between the two sensorimotor contexts triggered transitions from one free-energy state to another in the network via executive control, which caused shifts between attenuating and amplifying prediction-error-induced responses in the sensory areas. This study situates emergence of sensory attenuation (or self-other distinction) in development of distinct free-energy states in the dynamic hierarchical neural system

Operational Decision Making under Uncertainty: Inferential, Sequential, and Adversarial Approaches

Modern security threats are characterized by a stochastic, dynamic, partially observable, and ambiguous operational environment. This dissertation addresses such complex security threats using operations research techniques for decision making under uncertainty in operations planning, analysis, and assessment. First, this research develops a new method for robust queue inference with partially observable, stochastic arrival and departure times, motivated by cybersecurity and terrorism applications. In the dynamic setting, this work develops a new variant of Markov decision processes and an algorithm for robust information collection in dynamic, partially observable and ambiguous environments, with an application to a cybersecurity detection problem. In the adversarial setting, this work presents a new application of counterfactual regret minimization and robust optimization to a multi-domain cyber and air defense problem in a partially observable environment

A model to integrate Data Mining and On-line Analytical Processing: with application to Real Time Process Control

Since the widespread use of computers in business and industry, a lot of research has been done on the design of computer systems to support the decision making task. Decision support systems support decision makers in solving unstructured decision problems by providing tools to help understand and analyze decision problems to help make better decisions. Artificial intelligence is concerned with creating computer systems that perform tasks that would require intelligence if performed by humans. Much research has focused on using artificial intelligence to develop decision support systems to provide intelligent decision support. Knowledge discovery from databases, centers around data mining algorithms to discover novel and potentially useful information contained in the large volumes of data that is ubiquitous in contemporary business organizations. Data mining deals with large volumes of data and tries to develop multiple views that the decision maker can use to study this multi-dimensional data. On-line analytical processing (OLAP) provides a mechanism that supports multiple views of multi-dimensional data to facilitate efficient analysis. These two techniques together can provide a powerful mechanism for the analysis of large quantities of data to aid the task of making decisions. This research develops a model for the real time process control of a large manufacturing process using an integrated approach of data mining and on-line analytical processing. Data mining is used to develop models of the process based on the large volumes of the process data. The purpose is to provide prediction and explanatory capability based on the models of the data and to allow for efficient generation of multiple views of the data so as to support analysis on multiple levels. Artificial neural networks provide a mechanism for predicting the behavior of nonlinear systems, while decision trees provide a mechanism for the explanation of states of systems given a set of inputs and outputs. OLAP is used to generate multidimensional views of the data and support analysis based on models developed by data mining. The architecture and implementation of the model for real-time process control based on the integration of data mining and OLAP is presented in detail. The model is validated by comparing results obtained from the integrated system, OLAP-only and expert opinion. The system is validated using actual process data and the results of this verification are presented. A discussion of the results of the validation of the integrated system and some limitations of this research with discussion on possible future research directions is provided