Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle. An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287], [arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Rates of agonism among female primates: a cross-taxon perspective

Agonism is common in group-living animals, shaping dominance relationships and ultimately impacting individual tness. Rates of agonism vary considerably among taxa, however, and explaining this variation has been central in ecological models of female social relationships in primates. Early iterations of these models posited a link to diet, with more frequent agonism predicted in frugivorous species due to the presumed greater contestability of fruits relative to other food types. Although some more recent studies have suggested that dietary categories may be poor predictors of contest competition among primates, to date there have been no broad, cross-taxa comparisons of rates of female–female agonism in relation to diet. This study tests whether dietary variables do indeed pre- dict rates of female agonism and further investigates the role of group size (i.e., number of competitors) and substrate use (i.e., degree of arboreality) on the frequency of agonism. Data from 44 wild, unprovisioned groups, including 3 strepsirhine species, 3 platyrrhines, 5 colobines, 10 cercopithecines, and 2 hominoids were analyzed using phylogenetically controlled and uncontrolled methods. Results indicate that diet does not predict agonistic rates, with trends actually being in the opposite direction than predicted for all taxa except cercopithecines. In contrast, agonistic rates are positively associated with group size and possibly degree of terrestriality. Competitor density and perhaps the risk of ghting, thus, appear more important than general diet in predicting agonism among female primates. We discuss the implications of these results for socio-ecological hypotheses

Grove v. State Clerk\u27s Record v. 1 Dckt. 43537

https://digitalcommons.law.uidaho.edu/idaho_supreme_court_record_briefs/7087/thumbnail.jp

Grove v. State Clerk\u27s Record v. 2 Dckt. 43537

https://digitalcommons.law.uidaho.edu/idaho_supreme_court_record_briefs/7088/thumbnail.jp

Estimates of success in patients with sciatica due to lumbar disc herniation depend upon outcome measure

The objectives were to estimate the cut-off points for success on different sciatica outcome measures and to determine the success rate after an episode of sciatica by using these cut-offs. A 12-month multicenter observational study was conducted on 466 patients with sciatica and lumbar disc herniation. The cut-off values were estimated by ROC curve analyses using Completely recovered or Much better on a 7-point global change scale as external criterion for success. The cut-off values (references in brackets) at 12 months were leg pain VAS 17.5 (0–100), back pain VAS 22.5 (0–100), Sciatica Bothersomeness Index 6.5 (0–24), Maine-Seattle Back Questionnaire 4.5 (0–12), and the SF-36 subscales bodily pain 51.5, and physical functioning 81.7 (0–100, higher values indicate better health). In conclusion, the success rates at 12 months varied from 49 to 58% depending on the measure used. The proposed cut-offs may facilitate the comparison of success rates across studies

Special Libraries, February 1926

Volume 17, Issue 2https://scholarworks.sjsu.edu/sla_sl_1926/1001/thumbnail.jp

Special Libraries, February 1926

Volume 17, Issue 2https://scholarworks.sjsu.edu/sla_sl_1926/1001/thumbnail.jp