387 research outputs found

    Ocean dynamics shapes the structure and timing of Atlantic Equatorial Modes

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    A recent study has brought to light the co‐existence of two distinct Atlantic Equatorial Modes during negative phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability: the Atlantic Niño and Horse‐Shoe (HS) mode. Nevertheless, the associated air‐sea interactions for HS mode have not been explored so far and the prevailing dynamic view of the Atlantic Niño has been questioned. Here, using a forced ocean model simulation, we find that for both modes, ocean dynamics is essential to explain the equatorial SST variations, while air‐sea fluxes control the off‐equatorial SST anomalies. Moreover, we demonstrate the key role played by ocean waves in shaping their distinct structure and timing. For the positive phase of both Atlantic Niño and HS, anomalous westerly winds trigger a set of equatorial downwelling Kelvin waves (KW) during spring‐summer. These dKWs deepen the thermocline, favouring the equatorial warming through vertical diffusion and horizontal advection. Remarkably, for the HS, an anomalous north‐equatorial wind stress curl excites an upwelling Rossby wave (RW), which propagates westward and is reflected at the western boundary becoming an equatorial upwelling KW. The uKW propagates to the east, activating the thermocline feedbacks responsible to cool the sea surface during summer months. This RW‐reflected mechanism acts as a negative feedback causing the early termination of the HS mode. Our results provide an improvement in the understanding of the TAV modes and emphasize the importance of ocean wave activity to modulate the equatorial SST variability. These findings could be very useful to improve the prediction of the Equatorial Modes

    Surface warming slowdown with continued subsurface warming in the East Sea (Japan Sea) over recent decades (2000–2014)

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    The long-term surface warming trend in the East Sea (Japan Sea; ES hereafter) stalled from 2000 to 2014 (−0.05°C yr−1, surface warming slowdown), while the subsurface (100–300°m) warming trend continued (+0.03°C yr−1). To address the processes underlying these contrasting trends in surface and subsurface temperature change, the trends in sea-level anomaly, isopycnal depth, and wind pattern were analyzed using monthly mean ocean reanalysis system 4 (ORAS4) data. During this period, the strengthened northwesterly/northerly wind in the central part of ES is supposed to contribute to a negative (positive) wind stress curl to its west (east), corresponding to an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation in the west (east). Furthermore, the induced negative wind stress in the west appears to enhance the northward penetration of East Korean Warm Current (EKWC), the slowdown in its eastward meandering around 38° N from the Korea coast, resulting in warm water accumulation in the west with peak warm anomaly at relatively greater depth compared to peak cold anomaly in the east. Overall, these wind-driven changes in transport from west to east, wind stress curl induced horizontal divergence (convergence) and the associated upwelling (downwelling), causes surface warming to slow and subsurface warming to persist during 2000 to 2014

    Energy and Water Cycles in the Third Pole

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    As the most prominent and complicated terrain on the globe, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is often called the “Roof of the World”, “Third Pole” or “Asian Water Tower”. The energy and water cycles in the Third Pole have great impacts on the atmospheric circulation, Asian monsoon system and global climate change. On the other hand, the TP and the surrounding higher elevation area are also experiencing evident and rapid environmental changes under the background of global warming. As the headwater area of major rivers in Asia, the TP’s environmental changes—such as glacial retreat, snow melting, lake expanding and permafrost degradation—pose potential long-term threats to water resources of the local and surrounding regions. To promote quantitative understanding of energy and water cycles of the TP, several field campaigns, including GAME/Tibet, CAMP/Tibet and TORP, have been carried out. A large amount of data have been collected to gain a better understanding of the atmospheric boundary layer structure, turbulent heat fluxes and their coupling with atmospheric circulation and hydrological processes. The focus of this reprint is to present recent advances in quantifying land–atmosphere interactions, the water cycle and its components, energy balance components, climate change and hydrological feedbacks by in situ measurements, remote sensing or numerical modelling approaches in the “Third Pole” region

    Biogeochemical and ecological impacts of boundary currents in the Indian Ocean

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    Monsoon forcing and the unique geomorphology of the Indian Ocean basin result in complex boundary currents, which are unique in many respects. In the northern Indian Ocean, several boundary current systems reverse seasonally. For example, upwelling coincident with northward-flowing currents along the coast of Oman during the Southwest Monsoon gives rise to high productivity which also alters nutrient stoichiometry and therefore, the species composition of the resulting phytoplankton blooms. During the Northeast Monsoon most of the northern Indian Ocean boundary currents reverse and favor downwelling. Higher trophic level species have evolved behavioral responses to these seasonally changing conditions. Examples from the western Arabian Sea include vertical feeding migrations of a copepod (Calanoides carinatus) and the reproductive cycle of a large pelagic fish (Scomberomorus commerson). The impacts of these seasonal current reversals and changes in upwelling and downwelling circulations are also manifested in West Indian coastal waters, where they influence dissolved oxygen concentrations and have been implicated in massive fish kills. The winds and boundary currents reverse seasonally in the Bay of Bengal, though the associated changes in upwelling and productivity are less pronounced. Nonetheless, their effects are observed on the East Indian shelf as, for example, seasonal changes in copepod abundance and zooplankton community structure. In contrast, south of Sri Lanka seasonal reversals in the boundary currents are associated with dramatic changes in the intensity of coastal upwelling, chlorophyll concentration, and catch per unit effort of fishes. Off the coast of Java, monsoon-driven changes in the currents and upwelling strongly impact chlorophyll concentrations, seasonal vertical migrations of zooplankton, and sardine catch in Bali Strait. In the southern hemisphere the Leeuwin is a downwelling-favorable current that flows southward along western Australia, though local wind forcing can lead to transient near shore current reversals and localized coastal upwelling. The poleward direction of this eastern boundary current is unique. Due to its high kinetic energy the Leeuwin Current sheds anomalous, relatively high chlorophyll, warm-core, downwelling eddies that transport coastal diatom communities westward into open ocean waters. Variations in the Leeuwin transport and eddy generation impact many higher trophic level species including the recruitment and fate of rock lobster (Panulirus cygnus) larvae. In contrast, the transport of the Agulhas Current is very large, with sources derived from the Mozambique Channel, the East Madagascar Current and the southwest Indian Ocean sub-gyre. Dynamically, the Agulhas Current is upwelling favorable; however, the spatial distribution of prominent surface manifestations of upwelling is controlled by local wind and topographic forcing. Meanders and eddies in the Agulhas Current propagate alongshore and interact with seasonal changes in the winds and topographic features. These give rise to seasonally variable localized upwelling and downwelling circulations with commensurate changes in primary production and higher trophic level responses. Due to the strong influence of the Agulhas Current, many neritic fish species in southeast Africa coastal waters have evolved highly selective behaviors and reproductive patterns for successful retention of planktonic eggs and larvae. For example, part of the Southern African sardine (Sardinops sagax) stock undergoes a remarkable northward migration enhanced by transient cyclonic eddies in the shoreward boundary of the Agulhas Current. There is evidence from the paleoceanographic record that these currents and their biogeochemical and ecological impacts have changed significantly over glacial to interglacial timescales. These changes are explored as a means of providing insight into the potential impacts of climate change in the Indian Ocean

    The Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS)

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    [in “State of the Climate in 2014” : Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 96, No. 7, July 2015

    SURFACE AND AEROSOL EFFECTS ON THE SOUTH ASIAN MONSOON HYDROCLIMATE

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    This work targets important couplings in the South Asian monsoon system at interannual or longer time-scales and associated processes and mechanisms: aerosol-hydroclimate, atmosphere-ocean, and land-atmosphere. Anomalous springtime absorbing aerosols loading over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) leads to large-scale variations of the monsoon: cloudiness reduction associated with increased aerosols is suggested to play an important role in triggering surface heating over India, which strengthens the monsoon. Indeed, a closer analysis with high resolution data depicts a complex interplay between aerosols, dynamics and precipitation. Interestingly, observations do not provide any evidence for the Elevated Heat Pump hypothesis, a mechanism proposed for the aerosol-monsoon link. Current coupled climate models, which have been extensively used to study aerosol-monsoon interactions, are shown to have large, systematic, and coherent biases in precipitation, evaporation, sea-surface temperature (SST) over the Indian Ocean during the monsoon. Models are also found to deficiently portray local and non-local air-sea interactions. For example, they tend to emphasize local oceanic forcing on precipitation or to poorly simulate the relationship between SST and evaporation. The Indian monsoon rainfall-SST link is also spuriously misrepresented, suggesting caution when interpreting model-based findings. Both regional and remote forcings modulate the annual cycle of the heat-low over the desert areas (including the Thar Desert) between Pakistan and northwestern India, source of most of the dust loading over India. Land-surface heating has a limited role in the development of the low. Regional orography and monsoon summertime deep-convection over the Bay of Bengal, with its upstream descent to the west and related northerlies, contribute to the strengthening of the low, indicating a monsoon modulation on desert processes, including dust emission. The Thar Desert is expanding westward and the potential impact of land-cover change (without consideration of the additional aerosol loading) on summer monsoon hydroclimate and circulation is found to be significant. Locally, the atmospheric water cycle weakens, air temperature cools and subsidence prevails. An anomalous northwesterly flow over the IGP weakens the monsoon circulation over eastern India, causing precipitation to decrease. Orographic enhanced precipitation occurs over the Eastern Himalayas and southern China

    Linkages between Atmospheric Circulation, Weather, Climate, Land Cover and Social Dynamics of the Tibetan Plateau

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    The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an important landmass that plays a significant role in both regional and global climates. In recent decades, the TP has undergone significant changes due to climate and human activities. Since the 1980s anthropogenic activities, such as the stocking of livestock, land cover change, permafrost degradation, urbanization, highway construction, deforestation and desertification, and unsustainable land management practices, have greatly increased over the TP. As a result, grasslands have undergone rapid degradation and have altered the land surface which in turn has altered the exchange of heat and moisture properties between land and the atmosphere. But gaps still exist in our knowledge of land-atmosphere interactions in the TP and their impacts on weather and climate around the TP, making it difficult to understand the complete energy and water cycles over the region. Moreover, human, and ecological systems are interlinked, and the drivers of change include biophysical, economic, political, social, and cultural elements that operate at different temporal and spatial scales. Current studies do not holistically reflect the complex social-ecological dynamics of the Tibetan Plateau. To increase our understanding of this coupled human-natural system, there is a need for an integrated approach to rendering visible the deep interconnections between the biophysical and social systems of the TP. There is a need for an integrative framework to study the impacts of sedentary and individualized production systems on the health and livelihoods of local communities in the context of land degradation and climate change. To do so, there is a need to understand better the spatial variability and landscape patterns in grassland degradation across the TP. Therefore, the main goal of this dissertation is to contribute to our understanding of the changes over the land surface and how these changes impact the plateau\u27s weather, climate, and social dynamics. This dissertation is structured as three interrelated manuscripts, which each explore specific research questions relating to this larger goal. These manuscripts constitute the three primary papers of this dissertation. The first paper documents the significant association of surface energy flux with vegetation cover, as measured by satellite based AVHRR GIMMS3g normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, during the early growing season of May in the western region of the Tibetan Plateau. In addition, a 1°K increase in the temperature at the 500 hPa level was observed. Based on the identified positive effects of vegetation on the temperature associated with decreased NDVI in the western region of the Tibetan Plateau, I propose a positive energy process for land-atmosphere associations. In the second paper, an increase in Landsat-derived NDVI, i.e., a greening, is identified within the TP, especially during 1990 to 2018 and 2000 to 2018 time periods. Larger median growing season NDVI change values were observed for the Southeast Tibet shrublands and meadows and Tibetan Plateau Alpine Shrublands and Meadows grassland regions, in comparison to the other three regions studied. Land degradation is prominent in the lower and intermediate hillslope positions in comparison to the higher relative topographic positions, and change is more pronounced in the eastern Southeast Tibet shrublands and meadows and Tibetan Plateau Alpine Shrublands and Meadows grasslands. Geomorphons were found to be an effective spatial unit for analysis of hillslope change patterns. Through the extensive literature review presented in third paper, this dissertation recommends using critical physical geography (CPG) to study environmental and social issues in the TP. The conceptual model proposed provides a framework for analysis of the dominant controls, feedback, and interactions between natural, human, socioeconomic, and governance activities, allowing researchers to untangle climate change, land degradation, and vulnerability in the Tibetan Plateau. CPG will further help improve our understanding of the exposure of local people to climate and socio-economic and political change and help policy makers devise appropriate strategies to combat future grassland degradation and to improve the lives and strengthen livelihoods of the inhabitants of the TP

    Exceptionally cold water days in the southern Taiwan Strait: their predictability and relation to La Niña

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    The objectives of this study were to assess the predictability of exceptionally cold water in the Taiwan Strait (TS) and to develop a warning system on the basis of the scientific mechanism, which is a component of the information technology system currently under development in Taiwan to protect aquaculture against extreme hazards. Optimum interpolation sea surface temperature (SST) data were used to find exceptionally cold water days from January 1995 to May 2017. We found that the SST and wind speed over the TS are low and strong in La Niña winters, respectively. According to tests conducted using relative operating characteristic curves, predictions based on the Oceanic Niño Index and integrated wind speed can be employed at lead times of 60–120 and 0–25 days, respectively. This study utilized these two proxies to develop a possible warning mechanism and concluded four colors of warning light: (1) blue, meaning normal (0&thinsp;% occurrence probability); (2) cyan, meaning warning ( ∼  50&thinsp;% occurrence probability); (3) yellow, meaning moderate risk ( ∼  60&thinsp;% occurrence probability); and (4) red, meaning high risk ( ∼  75&thinsp;% occurrence probability). Hindcasting winters over the period 1995–2017 successfully predicted the cold water hazards in the winters of 2000, 2008, and 2011 prior to the coldest day by  ∼  20 days.</p

    State of the climate in 2013

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    In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earths surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series. © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved
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