A critical review of online battery remaining useful lifetime prediction methods.

Lithium-ion batteries play an important role in our daily lives. The prediction of the remaining service life of lithium-ion batteries has become an important issue. This article reviews the methods for predicting the remaining service life of lithium-ion batteries from three aspects: machine learning, adaptive filtering, and random processes. The purpose of this study is to review, classify and compare different methods proposed in the literature to predict the remaining service life of lithium-ion batteries. This article first summarizes and classifies various methods for predicting the remaining service life of lithium-ion batteries that have been proposed in recent years. On this basis, by selecting specific criteria to evaluate and compare the accuracy of different models, find the most suitable method. Finally, summarize the development of various methods. According to the research in this article, the average accuracy of machine learning is 32.02% higher than the average of the other two methods, and the prediction cycle is 9.87% shorter than the average of the other two methods

Multiple-Change-Point Modeling and Exact Bayesian Inference of Degradation Signal for Prognostic Improvement

Prognostics play an increasingly important role in modern engineering systems for smart maintenance decision-making. In parametric regression-based approaches, the parametric models are often too rigid to model degradation signals in many applications. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian multiple-change-point (CP) modeling framework to better capture the degradation path and improve the prognostics. At the offline modeling stage, a novel stochastic process is proposed to model the joint prior of CPs and positions. All hyperparameters are estimated through an empirical two-stage process. At the online monitoring and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction stage, a recursive updating algorithm is developed to exactly calculate the posterior distribution and RUL prediction sequentially. To control the computational cost, a fixed-support-size strategy in the online model updating and a partial Monte Carlo strategy in the RUL prediction are proposed. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed method are demonstrated through thorough simulation and real case studies

Can Cascades be Predicted?

On many social networking web sites such as Facebook and Twitter, resharing or reposting functionality allows users to share others' content with their own friends or followers. As content is reshared from user to user, large cascades of reshares can form. While a growing body of research has focused on analyzing and characterizing such cascades, a recent, parallel line of work has argued that the future trajectory of a cascade may be inherently unpredictable. In this work, we develop a framework for addressing cascade prediction problems. On a large sample of photo reshare cascades on Facebook, we find strong performance in predicting whether a cascade will continue to grow in the future. We find that the relative growth of a cascade becomes more predictable as we observe more of its reshares, that temporal and structural features are key predictors of cascade size, and that initially, breadth, rather than depth in a cascade is a better indicator of larger cascades. This prediction performance is robust in the sense that multiple distinct classes of features all achieve similar performance. We also discover that temporal features are predictive of a cascade's eventual shape. Observing independent cascades of the same content, we find that while these cascades differ greatly in size, we are still able to predict which ends up the largest

Motion Artifact Processing Techniques for Physiological Signals

The combination of reducing birth rate and increasing life expectancy continues to drive the demographic shift toward an ageing population and this is placing an ever-increasing burden on our healthcare systems. The urgent need to address this so called healthcare \time bomb" has led to a rapid growth in research into ubiquitous, pervasive and distributed healthcare technologies where recent advances in signal acquisition, data storage and communication are helping such systems become a reality. However, similar to recordings performed in the hospital environment, artifacts continue to be a major issue for these systems. The magnitude and frequency of artifacts can vary signicantly depending on the recording environment with one of the major contributions due to the motion of the subject or the recording transducer. As such, this thesis addresses the challenges of the removal of this motion artifact removal from various physiological signals. The preliminary investigations focus on artifact identication and the tagging of physiological signals streams with measures of signal quality. A new method for quantifying signal quality is developed based on the use of inexpensive accelerometers which facilitates the appropriate use of artifact processing methods as needed. These artifact processing methods are thoroughly examined as part of a comprehensive review of the most commonly applicable methods. This review forms the basis for the comparative studies subsequently presented. Then, a simple but novel experimental methodology for the comparison of artifact processing techniques is proposed, designed and tested for algorithm evaluation. The method is demonstrated to be highly eective for the type of artifact challenges common in a connected health setting, particularly those concerned with brain activity monitoring. This research primarily focuses on applying the techniques to functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) and electroencephalography (EEG) data due to their high susceptibility to contamination by subject motion related artifact. Using the novel experimental methodology, complemented with simulated data, a comprehensive comparison of a range of artifact processing methods is conducted, allowing the identication of the set of the best performing methods. A novel artifact removal technique is also developed, namely ensemble empirical mode decomposition with canonical correlation analysis (EEMD-CCA), which provides the best results when applied on fNIRS data under particular conditions. Four of the best performing techniques were then tested on real ambulatory EEG data contaminated with movement artifacts comparable to those observed during in-home monitoring. It was determined that when analysing EEG data, the Wiener lter is consistently the best performing artifact removal technique. However, when employing the fNIRS data, the best technique depends on a number of factors including: 1) the availability of a reference signal and 2) whether or not the form of the artifact is known. It is envisaged that the use of physiological signal monitoring for patient healthcare will grow signicantly over the next number of decades and it is hoped that this thesis will aid in the progression and development of artifact removal techniques capable of supporting this growth

Remaining useful life prediction of the ball screw system based on weighted Mahalanobis distance and an exponential model

The ball screw system is one of the crucial components of machine tools and predicting its remaining useful life (RUL) can enhance the reliability and safety of the entire machine tool and reduce maintenance costs. Although quite a few techniques have been developed for the fault diagnosis of the ball screw system, forecasting the RUL of the ball screw system is a remaining challenge. To make up for this deficiency, we present a model-based method to predict the RUL of the ball screw system, which consists of two parts: health indicator (HI) construction and RUL prediction. First, we develop a novel HI, weighted Mahalanobis distance (WDMD). Unlike the Mahalanobis distance (MD), which is constructed by fusing original features directly, the WDMD is formed with some selected features only, and the features are weighted before integration. Second, an exponential model is developed to describe the degradation path of the ball screw system. Then, the particle filtering algorithm is employed to combine the WDMD and the degradation model for state estimation and RUL prediction. The proposed approach is verified by a dataset obtained from an experimental system designed for accelerated life tests of the ball screw system. The results show that the WDMD has a more apparent deterioration trend than the MD and the proposed exponential model performs better than both the linear model and the nonlinear model in RUL prediction

From Micro to Macro: Uncovering and Predicting Information Cascading Process with Behavioral Dynamics

Cascades are ubiquitous in various network environments. How to predict these cascades is highly nontrivial in several vital applications, such as viral marketing, epidemic prevention and traffic management. Most previous works mainly focus on predicting the final cascade sizes. As cascades are typical dynamic processes, it is always interesting and important to predict the cascade size at any time, or predict the time when a cascade will reach a certain size (e.g. an threshold for outbreak). In this paper, we unify all these tasks into a fundamental problem: cascading process prediction. That is, given the early stage of a cascade, how to predict its cumulative cascade size of any later time? For such a challenging problem, how to understand the micro mechanism that drives and generates the macro phenomenons (i.e. cascading proceese) is essential. Here we introduce behavioral dynamics as the micro mechanism to describe the dynamic process of a node's neighbors get infected by a cascade after this node get infected (i.e. one-hop subcascades). Through data-driven analysis, we find out the common principles and patterns lying in behavioral dynamics and propose a novel Networked Weibull Regression model for behavioral dynamics modeling. After that we propose a novel method for predicting cascading processes by effectively aggregating behavioral dynamics, and propose a scalable solution to approximate the cascading process with a theoretical guarantee. We extensively evaluate the proposed method on a large scale social network dataset. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can significantly outperform other state-of-the-art baselines in multiple tasks including cascade size prediction, outbreak time prediction and cascading process prediction.Comment: 10 pages, 11 figure

Multidimensional prognostics for rotating machinery: A review

open access articleDetermining prognosis for rotating machinery could potentially reduce maintenance costs and improve safety and avail- ability. Complex rotating machines are usually equipped with multiple sensors, which enable the development of multidi- mensional prognostic models. By considering the possible synergy among different sensor signals, multivariate models may provide more accurate prognosis than those using single-source information. Consequently, numerous research papers focusing on the theoretical considerations and practical implementations of multivariate prognostic models have been published in the last decade. However, only a limited number of review papers have been written on the subject. This article focuses on multidimensional prognostic models that have been applied to predict the failures of rotating machinery with multiple sensors. The theory and basic functioning of these techniques, their relative merits and draw- backs and how these models have been used to predict the remnant life of a machine are discussed in detail. Furthermore, this article summarizes the rotating machines to which these models have been applied and discusses future research challenges. The authors also provide seven evaluation criteria that can be used to compare the reviewed techniques. By reviewing the models reported in the literature, this article provides a guide for researchers considering prognosis options for multi-sensor rotating equipment