Quantitative evaluation of Pandora Temporal Fault Trees via Petri Nets

© 2015, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Using classical combinatorial fault trees, analysts are able to assess the effects of combinations of failures on system behaviour but are unable to capture sequence dependent dynamic behaviour. Pandora introduces temporal gates and temporal laws to fault trees to allow sequence-dependent dynamic analysis of events. Pandora can be easily integrated in model-based design and analysis techniques; however, the combinatorial quantification techniques used to solve classical fault trees cannot be applied to temporal fault trees. Temporal fault trees capture state and therefore require a state space solution for quantification of probability. In this paper, we identify Petri Nets as a possible framework for quantifying temporal trees. We describe how Pandora fault trees can be mapped to Petri Nets for dynamic dependability analysis and demonstrate the process on a fault tolerant fuel distribution system model

Assessing the reliability of adaptive power system protection schemes

Adaptive power system protection can be used to improve the performance of existing protection schemes under certain network conditions. However, their deployment in the field is impeded by their perceived inferior reliability compared to existing protection arrangements. Moreover, their validation can be problematic due to the perceived high likelihood of the occurrence of failure modes or incorrect setting selection with variable network conditions. Reliability (including risk assessment) is one of the decisive measures that can be used in the process of verifying adaptive protection scheme performance. This paper proposes a generic methodology for assessing the reliability of adaptive protection. The method involves the identification of initiating events and scenarios that lead to protection failures and quantification of the probability of the occurrence of each failure. A numerical example of the methodology for an adaptive distance protection scheme is provided

Quantifying dependencies for sensitivity analysis with multivariate input sample data

We present a novel method for quantifying dependencies in multivariate datasets, based on estimating the R\'{e}nyi entropy by minimum spanning trees (MSTs). The length of the MSTs can be used to order pairs of variables from strongly to weakly dependent, making it a useful tool for sensitivity analysis with dependent input variables. It is well-suited for cases where the input distribution is unknown and only a sample of the inputs is available. We introduce an estimator to quantify dependency based on the MST length, and investigate its properties with several numerical examples. To reduce the computational cost of constructing the exact MST for large datasets, we explore methods to compute approximations to the exact MST, and find the multilevel approach introduced recently by Zhong et al. (2015) to be the most accurate. We apply our proposed method to an artificial testcase based on the Ishigami function, as well as to a real-world testcase involving sediment transport in the North Sea. The results are consistent with prior knowledge and heuristic understanding, as well as with variance-based analysis using Sobol indices in the case where these indices can be computed

A synthesis of logic and bio-inspired techniques in the design of dependable systems

Much of the development of model-based design and dependability analysis in the design of dependable systems, including software intensive systems, can be attributed to the application of advances in formal logic and its application to fault forecasting and verification of systems. In parallel, work on bio-inspired technologies has shown potential for the evolutionary design of engineering systems via automated exploration of potentially large design spaces. We have not yet seen the emergence of a design paradigm that effectively combines these two techniques, schematically founded on the two pillars of formal logic and biology, from the early stages of, and throughout, the design lifecycle. Such a design paradigm would apply these techniques synergistically and systematically to enable optimal refinement of new designs which can be driven effectively by dependability requirements. The paper sketches such a model-centric paradigm for the design of dependable systems, presented in the scope of the HiP-HOPS tool and technique, that brings these technologies together to realise their combined potential benefits. The paper begins by identifying current challenges in model-based safety assessment and then overviews the use of meta-heuristics at various stages of the design lifecycle covering topics that span from allocation of dependability requirements, through dependability analysis, to multi-objective optimisation of system architectures and maintenance schedules

Multivariate reliability modelling with empirical Bayes inference

Recent developments in technology permit detailed descriptions of system performance to be collected and stored. Consequently, more data are available about the occurrence, or non-occurrence, of events across a range of classes through time. Typically this implies that reliability analysis has more information about the exposure history of a system within different classes of events. For highly reliable systems, there may be relatively few failure events. Thus there is a need to develop statistical inference to support reliability estimation when there is a low ratio of failures relative to event classes. In this paper we show how Empirical Bayes methods can be used to estimate a multivariate reliability function for a system by modelling the vector of times to realise each failure root cause

THE ANALYSIS OF INFORMATICS SECURITY COSTS IN CITIZEN ORIENTED APPLICATIONS

The paper highlights the analysis of informatics security costs for the citizen oriented applications. The citizen oriented informatics applications are defined. The differences brought by these when compared with the traditional applications are described. Structures of citizen oriented informatics applications are presented. A few common citizen oriented applications are discussed. The special security requirements of the citizen oriented applications are discussed. Ways of increasing the security of the applications are given.security, cost, estimation, citizen orientation, distributed applications