Probabilistic Monte-Carlo method for modelling and prediction of electronics component life

Power electronics are widely used in electric vehicles, railway locomotive and new generation aircrafts. Reliability of these components directly affect the reliability and performance of these vehicular platforms. In recent years, several research work about reliability, failure mode and aging analysis have been extensively carried out. There is a need for an efficient algorithm able to predict the life of power electronics component. In this paper, a probabilistic Monte-Carlo framework is developed and applied to predict remaining useful life of a component. Probability distributions are used to model the component’s degradation process. The modelling parameters are learned using Maximum Likelihood Estimation. The prognostic is carried out by the mean of simulation in this paper. Monte-Carlo simulation is used to propagate multiple possible degradation paths based on the current health state of the component. The remaining useful life and confident bounds are calculated by estimating mean, median and percentile descriptive statistics of the simulated degradation paths. Results from different probabilistic models are compared and their prognostic performances are evaluated

The art of fault-tolerant system reliability modeling

A step-by-step tutorial of the methods and tools used for the reliability analysis of fault-tolerant systems is presented. Emphasis is on the representation of architectural features in mathematical models. Details of the mathematical solution of complex reliability models are not presented. Instead the use of several recently developed computer programs--SURE, ASSIST, STEM, PAWS--which automate the generation and solution of these models is described

Computationally efficient, real-time, and embeddable prognostic techniques for power electronics

Power electronics are increasingly important in new generation vehicles as critical safety mechanical subsystems are being replaced with more electronic components. Hence, it is vital that the health of these power electronic components is monitored for safety and reliability on a platform. The aim of this paper is to develop a prognostic approach for predicting the remaining useful life of power electronic components. The developed algorithms must also be embeddable and computationally efficient to support on-board real-time decision making. Current state-of-the-art prognostic algorithms, notably those based on Markov models, are computationally intensive and not applicable to real-time embedded applications. In this paper, an isolated-gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) is used as a case study for prognostic development. The proposed approach is developed by analyzing failure mechanisms and statistics of IGBT degradation data obtained from an accelerated aging experiment. The approach explores various probability distributions for modeling discrete degradation profiles of the IGBT component. This allows the stochastic degradation model to be efficiently simulated, in this particular example ~1000 times more efficiently than Markov approaches

Microwave vs optical crosslink study

The intersatellite links (ISL's) at geostationary orbit is currently a missing link in commercial satellite services. Prior studies have found that potential application of ISL's to domestic, regional, and global satellites will provide more cost-effective services than the non-ISL's systems (i.e., multiple-hop systems). In addition, ISL's can improve and expand the existing satellite services in several aspects. For example, ISL's can conserve the scarce spectrum allocated for fixed satellite services (FSS) by avoiding multiple hopping of the relay stations. ISL's can also conserve prime orbit slot by effectively expanding the geostationary arc. As a result of the coverage extension by using ISL's more users will have direct access to the satellite network, thus providing reduced signal propagation delay and improved signal quality. Given the potential benefits of ISL's system, it is of interest to determine the appropriate implementations for some potential ISL architectures. Summary of the selected ISL network architecture as supplied by NASA are listed. The projected high data rate requirements (greater than 400 Mbps) suggest that high frequency RF or optical implementations are natural approaches. Both RF and optical systems have their own merits and weaknesses which make the choice between them dependent on the specific application. Due to its relatively mature technology base, the implementation risk associated with RF (at least 32 GHz) is lower than that of the optical ISL's. However, the relatively large antenna size required by RF ISL's payload may cause real-estate problems on the host spacecraft. In addition, because of the frequency sharing (for duplex multiple channels communications) within the limited bandwidth allocated, RF ISL's are more susceptible to inter-system and inter-channel interferences. On the other hand, optical ISL's can offer interference-free transmission and compact sized payload. However, the extremely narrow beam widths (on the order of 10 micro-rad) associated with optical ISL's impose very stringent pointing, acquisition, and tracking requirements on the system. Even if the RF and optical systems are considered separately, questions still remain as to selection of RF frequency, direct versus coherent optical detection, etc. in implementing an ISL for a particular network architecture. These and other issues are studied