Reliability Assessment of Legacy Safety-Critical Systems Upgraded with Fault-Tolerant Off-the-Shelf Software

This paper presents a new way of applying Bayesian assessment to systems, which consist of many components. Full Bayesian inference with such systems is problematic, because it is computationally hard and, far more seriously, one needs to specify a multivariate prior distribution with many counterintuitive dependencies between the probabilities of component failures. The approach taken here is one of decomposition. The system is decomposed into partial views of the systems or part thereof with different degrees of detail and then a mechanism of propagating the knowledge obtained with the more refined views back to the coarser views is applied (recalibration of coarse models). The paper describes the recalibration technique and then evaluates the accuracy of recalibrated models numerically on contrived examples using two techniques: u-plot and prequential likelihood, developed by others for software reliability growth models. The results indicate that the recalibrated predictions are often more accurate than the predictions obtained with the less detailed models, although this is not guaranteed. The techniques used to assess the accuracy of the predictions are accurate enough for one to be able to choose the model giving the most accurate prediction

Bayesian reliability assessment of legacy safety-critical systems upgraded with fault-tolerant off-the-shelf software

This paper presents a new way of applying Bayesian assessment to systems, which consist of many components. Full Bayesian inference with such systems is problematic, because it is computationally hard and, far more seriously, one needs to specify a multivariate prior distribution with many counterintuitive dependencies between the probabilities of component failures. The approach taken here is one of decomposition. The system is decomposed into partial views of the systems or part thereof with different degrees of detail and then a mechanism of propagating the knowledge obtained with the more refined views back to the coarser views is applied (recalibration of coarse models). The paper describes the recalibration technique and then evaluates the accuracy of recalibrated models numerically on contrived examples using two techniques: u-plot and prequential likelihood, developed by others for software reliability growth models. The results indicate that the recalibrated predictions are often more accurate than the predictions obtained with the less detailed models, although this is not guaranteed. The techniques used to assess the accuracy of the predictions are accurate enough for one to be able to choose the model giving the most accurate prediction

Uncertainty explicit assessment of off-the-shelf software: A Bayesian approach

Assessment of software COTS components is an essential part of component-based software development. Poorly chosen components may lead to solutions of low quality and that are difficult to maintain. The assessment may be based on incomplete knowledge about the COTS component itself and other aspects (e.g. vendor’s credentials, etc.), which may affect the decision of selecting COTS component(s). We argue in favor of assessment methods in which uncertainty is explicitly represented (‘uncertainty explicit’ methods) using probability distributions. We provide details of a Bayesian model, which can be used to capture the uncertainties in the simultaneous assessment of two attributes, thus, also capturing the dependencies that might exist between them. We also provide empirical data from the use of this method for the assessment of off-the-shelf database servers which illustrate the advantages of ‘uncertainty explicit’ methods over conventional methods of COTS component assessment which assume that at the end of the assessment the values of the attributes become known with certainty

Quantification of Mandatory Sustainment Requirements

To emphasize the importance of sustainment, the DoD Joint Requirements Oversight Council addressed sustained Materiel readiness and established a mandatory Key Performance Parameter (KPP) for Materiel Availability; it also established supporting Key System Attributes (KSAs) for Materiel Reliability and Ownership Cost (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Manual (CJCSM) 3170.01C, 2007). Current guidance requires two numbers: a threshold value and an objective value (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Manual (CJCSM) 3170.01C, 2007). No distinction is made between the approaches in establishing these values for major system acquisitions, versus smaller, modification-focused efforts for existing systems. The Joint Staff proposed guidance to assist in determining these values for major acquisition programs, but the guidance has yet to be tested on modification contracts. To assess its applicability, we performed a case study of a recent acquisition program under consideration by Air Mobility Command. We sought to apply the principles put forth in this draft guide prepared by the Office of the Secretary of Defense in Collaboration with the Joint Staff. This research seeks to assist the combat developer and program manager to develop an objective, standard, repeatable method for quantifying the mandatory Materiel Availability KPP and the associated Materiel Reliability KSA values established by the Joint Requirements Oversight Council

Foundation for Heavy Lift: Early Developments in the Ares V Cargo Launch Vehicle

The Ares V Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV) is NASA's primary vessel for safe, reliable delivery of the Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM) and other resources into Earth orbit, as articulated in the U.S. Vision for Space Exploration.' The Ares V launch concept is shown. The foundation for this heavy-lift companion to the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) is taking shape within NASA and with its government and industry partners. This paper will address accomplishments in the Ares V Launch Vehicle during 2006 and 2007 and offer a preview of future activities

A Hierarchical Core Reference Ontology for New Technology Insertion Design in Long Life Cycle, Complex Mission Critical Systems

Organizations, including government, commercial and others, face numerous challenges in maintaining and upgrading long life-cycle, complex, mission critical systems. Maintaining and upgrading these systems requires the insertion and integration of new technology to avoid obsolescence of hardware software, and human skills, to improve performance, to maintain and improve security, and to extend useful life. This is particularly true of information technology (IT) intensive systems. The lack of a coherent body of knowledge to organize new technology insertion theory and practice is a significant contributor to this difficulty. This research organized the existing design, technology road mapping, obsolescence, and sustainability literature into an ontology of theory and application as the foundation for a technology design and technology insertion design hierarchical core reference ontology and laid the foundation for body of knowledge that better integrates the new technology insertion problem into the technology design architecture

A Roadmap for Acquisition of Legacy Parts Through an On-demand Solution Aimed at the Energy Sector on the Norwegian Continental Shelf - A Case Implementation

\section{Abstract} Equinor has initiated a Field Life Extension (FLX) project to prolong the end-life operational capabilities of their installations by innovative methods, including Stafjord A. One of these innovative methods is to implement an on-demand solution for re-supplying the installation with spare parts manufactured through alternative methods, such as additive manufacturing (AM) and rapid casting. However, due to the age of specific components, the documentation for design, material specification, and manufacturing may be missing, i.e., legacy parts. The main aim of this thesis is to map the path from notification of a potential failure of a legacy part to the installation of a near-identical part. The life extension implies that mechanical equipment, such as valve bodies for the fire deluge systems must maintain their integrity throughout the expanded life cycle. Unfortunately, this component has exceeded its life expectancy by twice. Hence, increased degradation and risk for potential accidents introduce the need for acquiring new valve bodies. A literature review investigated the challenges and requirements for implementing the on-demand solution for legacy parts. Standards and manufacturing methods have been studied and compared. An Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to analyze the input from experts within AM and rapid casting. Finally, a case review processed the valve body through the Reverse Engineering Process (REP) activities. A roadmap is proposed based on regulations governing the manufacturing of mechanical components used on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). Furthermore, requirements for implementing the on-demand solution for legacy parts are described, including a proposition for an explicit criticality assessment for metal AM. A recommendation for operational part-monitoring and identification linked with a digital warehouse of the corresponding part is made to finalize the proposed roadmap for acquiring legacy parts on the NCS. The Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) reveals that rapid casting outperforms metal AM for valve body manufacturing. In addition, metal AM and rapid casting are benchmarked regarding realistic cost and lead time procurement limitations. The results include the AHP output and indicate that the cost of ordering the valve body favour rapid casting, but the lead time for metal AM is lower than rapid casting. The total cost for metal AM per part is nearly equal to the cost of the initial requested batch of 26 valve bodies produced by rapid casting