Finite-time influence systems and the Wisdom of Crowd effect

Recent contributions have studied how an influence system may affect the wisdom of crowd phenomenon. In the so-called naive learning setting, a crowd of individuals holds opinions that are statistically independent estimates of an unknown parameter; the crowd is wise when the average opinion converges to the true parameter in the limit of infinitely many individuals. Unfortunately, even starting from wise initial opinions, a crowd subject to certain influence systems may lose its wisdom. It is of great interest to characterize when an influence system preserves the crowd wisdom effect. In this paper we introduce and characterize numerous wisdom preservation properties of the basic French-DeGroot influence system model. Instead of requiring complete convergence to consensus as in the previous naive learning model by Golub and Jackson, we study finite-time executions of the French-DeGroot influence process and establish in this novel context the notion of prominent families (as a group of individuals with outsize influence). Surprisingly, finite-time wisdom preservation of the influence system is strictly distinct from its infinite-time version. We provide a comprehensive treatment of various finite-time wisdom preservation notions, counterexamples to meaningful conjectures, and a complete characterization of equal-neighbor influence systems

Local Causal States and Discrete Coherent Structures

Coherent structures form spontaneously in nonlinear spatiotemporal systems and are found at all spatial scales in natural phenomena from laboratory hydrodynamic flows and chemical reactions to ocean, atmosphere, and planetary climate dynamics. Phenomenologically, they appear as key components that organize the macroscopic behaviors in such systems. Despite a century of effort, they have eluded rigorous analysis and empirical prediction, with progress being made only recently. As a step in this, we present a formal theory of coherent structures in fully-discrete dynamical field theories. It builds on the notion of structure introduced by computational mechanics, generalizing it to a local spatiotemporal setting. The analysis' main tool employs the \localstates, which are used to uncover a system's hidden spatiotemporal symmetries and which identify coherent structures as spatially-localized deviations from those symmetries. The approach is behavior-driven in the sense that it does not rely on directly analyzing spatiotemporal equations of motion, rather it considers only the spatiotemporal fields a system generates. As such, it offers an unsupervised approach to discover and describe coherent structures. We illustrate the approach by analyzing coherent structures generated by elementary cellular automata, comparing the results with an earlier, dynamic-invariant-set approach that decomposes fields into domains, particles, and particle interactions.Comment: 27 pages, 10 figures; http://csc.ucdavis.edu/~cmg/compmech/pubs/dcs.ht

Different approaches to community detection

A precise definition of what constitutes a community in networks has remained elusive. Consequently, network scientists have compared community detection algorithms on benchmark networks with a particular form of community structure and classified them based on the mathematical techniques they employ. However, this comparison can be misleading because apparent similarities in their mathematical machinery can disguise different reasons for why we would want to employ community detection in the first place. Here we provide a focused review of these different motivations that underpin community detection. This problem-driven classification is useful in applied network science, where it is important to select an appropriate algorithm for the given purpose. Moreover, highlighting the different approaches to community detection also delineates the many lines of research and points out open directions and avenues for future research.Comment: 14 pages, 2 figures. Written as a chapter for forthcoming Advances in network clustering and blockmodeling, and based on an extended version of The many facets of community detection in complex networks, Appl. Netw. Sci. 2: 4 (2017) by the same author

When are Stochastic Transition Systems Tameable?

A decade ago, Abdulla, Ben Henda and Mayr introduced the elegant concept of decisiveness for denumerable Markov chains [1]. Roughly speaking, decisiveness allows one to lift most good properties from finite Markov chains to denumerable ones, and therefore to adapt existing verification algorithms to infinite-state models. Decisive Markov chains however do not encompass stochastic real-time systems, and general stochastic transition systems (STSs for short) are needed. In this article, we provide a framework to perform both the qualitative and the quantitative analysis of STSs. First, we define various notions of decisiveness (inherited from [1]), notions of fairness and of attractors for STSs, and make explicit the relationships between them. Then, we define a notion of abstraction, together with natural concepts of soundness and completeness, and we give general transfer properties, which will be central to several verification algorithms on STSs. We further design a generic construction which will be useful for the analysis of {\omega}-regular properties, when a finite attractor exists, either in the system (if it is denumerable), or in a sound denumerable abstraction of the system. We next provide algorithms for qualitative model-checking, and generic approximation procedures for quantitative model-checking. Finally, we instantiate our framework with stochastic timed automata (STA), generalized semi-Markov processes (GSMPs) and stochastic time Petri nets (STPNs), three models combining dense-time and probabilities. This allows us to derive decidability and approximability results for the verification of these models. Some of these results were known from the literature, but our generic approach permits to view them in a unified framework, and to obtain them with less effort. We also derive interesting new approximability results for STA, GSMPs and STPNs.Comment: 77 page

Process algebra for performance evaluation

This paper surveys the theoretical developments in the field of stochastic process algebras, process algebras where action occurrences may be subject to a delay that is determined by a random variable. A huge class of resource-sharing systems – like large-scale computers, client–server architectures, networks – can accurately be described using such stochastic specification formalisms. The main emphasis of this paper is the treatment of operational semantics, notions of equivalence, and (sound and complete) axiomatisations of these equivalences for different types of Markovian process algebras, where delays are governed by exponential distributions. Starting from a simple actionless algebra for describing time-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chains, we consider the integration of actions and random delays both as a single entity (like in known Markovian process algebras like TIPP, PEPA and EMPA) and as separate entities (like in the timed process algebras timed CSP and TCCS). In total we consider four related calculi and investigate their relationship to existing Markovian process algebras. We also briefly indicate how one can profit from the separation of time and actions when incorporating more general, non-Markovian distributions

Graphical modelling of multivariate time series

We introduce graphical time series models for the analysis of dynamic relationships among variables in multivariate time series. The modelling approach is based on the notion of strong Granger causality and can be applied to time series with non-linear dependencies. The models are derived from ordinary time series models by imposing constraints that are encoded by mixed graphs. In these graphs each component series is represented by a single vertex and directed edges indicate possible Granger-causal relationships between variables while undirected edges are used to map the contemporaneous dependence structure. We introduce various notions of Granger-causal Markov properties and discuss the relationships among them and to other Markov properties that can be applied in this context.Comment: 33 pages, 7 figures, to appear in Probability Theory and Related Field

A uniform framework for modelling nondeterministic, probabilistic, stochastic, or mixed processes and their behavioral equivalences

Labeled transition systems are typically used as behavioral models of concurrent processes, and the labeled transitions define the a one-step state-to-state reachability relation. This model can be made generalized by modifying the transition relation to associate a state reachability distribution, rather than a single target state, with any pair of source state and transition label. The state reachability distribution becomes a function mapping each possible target state to a value that expresses the degree of one-step reachability of that state. Values are taken from a preordered set equipped with a minimum that denotes unreachability. By selecting suitable preordered sets, the resulting model, called ULTraS from Uniform Labeled Transition System, can be specialized to capture well-known models of fully nondeterministic processes (LTS), fully probabilistic processes (ADTMC), fully stochastic processes (ACTMC), and of nondeterministic and probabilistic (MDP) or nondeterministic and stochastic (CTMDP) processes. This uniform treatment of different behavioral models extends to behavioral equivalences. These can be defined on ULTraS by relying on appropriate measure functions that expresses the degree of reachability of a set of states when performing single-step or multi-step computations. It is shown that the specializations of bisimulation, trace, and testing equivalences for the different classes of ULTraS coincide with the behavioral equivalences defined in the literature over traditional models

General anesthesia reduces complexity and temporal asymmetry of the informational structures derived from neural recordings in Drosophila

We apply techniques from the field of computational mechanics to evaluate the statistical complexity of neural recording data from fruit flies. First, we connect statistical complexity to the flies' level of conscious arousal, which is manipulated by general anesthesia (isoflurane). We show that the complexity of even single channel time series data decreases under anesthesia. The observed difference in complexity between the two states of conscious arousal increases as higher orders of temporal correlations are taken into account. We then go on to show that, in addition to reducing complexity, anesthesia also modulates the informational structure between the forward- and reverse-time neural signals. Specifically, using three distinct notions of temporal asymmetry we show that anesthesia reduces temporal asymmetry on information-theoretic and information-geometric grounds. In contrast to prior work, our results show that: (1) Complexity differences can emerge at very short timescales and across broad regions of the fly brain, thus heralding the macroscopic state of anesthesia in a previously unforeseen manner, and (2) that general anesthesia also modulates the temporal asymmetry of neural signals. Together, our results demonstrate that anesthetized brains become both less structured and more reversible.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures. Comments welcome; Added time-reversal analysis, updated discussion, new figures (Fig. 5 & Fig. 6) and Tables (Tab. 1