Crime and Social media

Purpose-The study complements the scant macroeconomic literature on the development outcomes of social media by examining the relationship between Facebook penetration and violent crime levels in a cross-section of 148 countries for the year 2012. Design/methodology/approach-The empirical evidence is based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Tobit and Quantile regressions. In order to respond to policy concerns on the limited evidence on the consequences of social media in developing countries, the dataset is disaggregated into regions and income levels. The decomposition by income levels included: low income, lower middle income, upper middle income and high income. The corresponding regions include: Europe and Central Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Findings-From OLS and Tobit regressions, there is a negative relationship between Facebook penetration and crime. However, Quantile regressions reveal that the established negative relationship is noticeable exclusively in the 90th crime decile. Further, when the dataset is decomposed into regions and income levels, the negative relationship is evident in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) while a positive relationship is confirmed for sub-Saharan Africa. Policy implications are discussed. Originality/value- Studies on the development outcomes of social media are sparse because of a lack of reliable macroeconomic data on social media. This study primarily complemented three existing studies that have leveraged on a newly available dataset on Facebook

Exploratory Analysis of Pairwise Interactions in Online Social Networks

In the last few decades sociologists were trying to explain human behaviour by analysing social networks, which requires access to data about interpersonal relationships. This represented a big obstacle in this research field until the emergence of online social networks (OSNs), which vastly facilitated the process of collecting such data. Nowadays, by crawling public profiles on OSNs, it is possible to build a social graph where "friends" on OSN become represented as connected nodes. OSN connection does not necessarily indicate a close real-life relationship, but using OSN interaction records may reveal real-life relationship intensities, a topic which inspired a number of recent researches. Still, published research currently lacks an extensive exploratory analysis of OSN interaction records, i.e. a comprehensive overview of users' interaction via different ways of OSN interaction. In this paper we provide such an overview by leveraging results of conducted extensive social experiment which managed to collect records for over 3,200 Facebook users interacting with over 1,400,000 of their friends. Our exploratory analysis focuses on extracting population distributions and correlation parameters for 13 interaction parameters, providing valuable insight in online social network interaction for future researches aimed at this field of study.Comment: Journal Article published 2 Oct 2017 in Automatika volume 58 issue 4 on pages 422 to 42

How Far Removed Are You? Scalable Privacy-Preserving Estimation of Social Path Length with Social PaL

Social relationships are a natural basis on which humans make trust decisions. Online Social Networks (OSNs) are increasingly often used to let users base trust decisions on the existence and the strength of social relationships. While most OSNs allow users to discover the length of the social path to other users, they do so in a centralized way, thus requiring them to rely on the service provider and reveal their interest in each other. This paper presents Social PaL, a system supporting the privacy-preserving discovery of arbitrary-length social paths between any two social network users. We overcome the bootstrapping problem encountered in all related prior work, demonstrating that Social PaL allows its users to find all paths of length two and to discover a significant fraction of longer paths, even when only a small fraction of OSN users is in the Social PaL system - e.g., discovering 70% of all paths with only 40% of the users. We implement Social PaL using a scalable server-side architecture and a modular Android client library, allowing developers to seamlessly integrate it into their apps.Comment: A preliminary version of this paper appears in ACM WiSec 2015. This is the full versio

Detecting the Influence of Spreading in Social Networks with Excitable Sensor Networks

Detecting spreading outbreaks in social networks with sensors is of great significance in applications. Inspired by the formation mechanism of human's physical sensations to external stimuli, we propose a new method to detect the influence of spreading by constructing excitable sensor networks. Exploiting the amplifying effect of excitable sensor networks, our method can better detect small-scale spreading processes. At the same time, it can also distinguish large-scale diffusion instances due to the self-inhibition effect of excitable elements. Through simulations of diverse spreading dynamics on typical real-world social networks (facebook, coauthor and email social networks), we find that the excitable senor networks are capable of detecting and ranking spreading processes in a much wider range of influence than other commonly used sensor placement methods, such as random, targeted, acquaintance and distance strategies. In addition, we validate the efficacy of our method with diffusion data from a real-world online social system, Twitter. We find that our method can detect more spreading topics in practice. Our approach provides a new direction in spreading detection and should be useful for designing effective detection methods

Regression adjustments for estimating the global treatment effect in experiments with interference

Standard estimators of the global average treatment effect can be biased in the presence of interference. This paper proposes regression adjustment estimators for removing bias due to interference in Bernoulli randomized experiments. We use a fitted model to predict the counterfactual outcomes of global control and global treatment. Our work differs from standard regression adjustments in that the adjustment variables are constructed from functions of the treatment assignment vector, and that we allow the researcher to use a collection of any functions correlated with the response, turning the problem of detecting interference into a feature engineering problem. We characterize the distribution of the proposed estimator in a linear model setting and connect the results to the standard theory of regression adjustments under SUTVA. We then propose an estimator that allows for flexible machine learning estimators to be used for fitting a nonlinear interference functional form. We propose conducting statistical inference via bootstrap and resampling methods, which allow us to sidestep the complicated dependences implied by interference and instead rely on empirical covariance structures. Such variance estimation relies on an exogeneity assumption akin to the standard unconfoundedness assumption invoked in observational studies. In simulation experiments, our methods are better at debiasing estimates than existing inverse propensity weighted estimators based on neighborhood exposure modeling. We use our method to reanalyze an experiment concerning weather insurance adoption conducted on a collection of villages in rural China.Comment: 38 pages, 7 figure

The power of A/B testing under interference

In this paper, we address the fundamental statistical question: how can you assess the power of an A/B test when the units in the study are exposed to interference? This question is germane to many scientific and industrial practitioners that rely on A/B testing in environments where control over interference is limited. We begin by proving that interference has a measurable effect on its sensitivity, or power. We quantify the power of an A/B test of equality of means as a function of the number of exposed individuals under any interference mechanism. We further derive a central limit theorem for the number of exposed individuals under a simple Bernoulli switching interference mechanism. Based on these results, we develop a strategy to estimate the power of an A/B test when actors experience interference according to an observed network model. We demonstrate how to leverage this theory to estimate the power of an A/B test on units sharing any network relationship, and highlight the utility of our method on two applications - a Facebook friendship network as well as a large Twitter follower network. These results yield, for the first time, the capacity to understand how to design an A/B test to detect, with a specified confidence, a fixed measurable treatment effect when the A/B test is conducted under interference driven by networks.Comment: 14 page