Beyond Bayesian Model Averaging over Paths in Probabilistic Programs with Stochastic Support

The posterior in probabilistic programs with stochastic support decomposes as a weighted sum of the local posterior distributions associated with each possible program path. We show that making predictions with this full posterior implicitly performs a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) over paths. This is potentially problematic, as model misspecification can cause the BMA weights to prematurely collapse onto a single path, leading to sub-optimal predictions in turn. To remedy this issue, we propose alternative mechanisms for path weighting: one based on stacking and one based on ideas from PAC-Bayes. We show how both can be implemented as a cheap post-processing step on top of existing inference engines. In our experiments, we find them to be more robust and lead to better predictions compared to the default BMA weights

Accessing spoken interaction through dialogue processing [online]

Zusammenfassung Unser Leben, unsere Leistungen und unsere Umgebung, alles wird derzeit durch Schriftsprache dokumentiert. Die rasante Fortentwicklung der technischen Möglichkeiten Audio, Bilder und Video aufzunehmen, abzuspeichern und wiederzugeben kann genutzt werden um die schriftliche Dokumentation von menschlicher Kommunikation, zum Beispiel Meetings, zu unterstützen, zu ergänzen oder gar zu ersetzen. Diese neuen Technologien können uns in die Lage versetzen Information aufzunehmen, die anderweitig verloren gehen, die Kosten der Dokumentation zu senken und hochwertige Dokumente mit audiovisuellem Material anzureichern. Die Indizierung solcher Aufnahmen stellt die Kerntechnologie dar um dieses Potential auszuschöpfen. Diese Arbeit stellt effektive Alternativen zu schlüsselwortbasierten Indizes vor, die Suchraumeinschränkungen bewirken und teilweise mit einfachen Mitteln zu berechnen sind. Die Indizierung von Sprachdokumenten kann auf verschiedenen Ebenen erfolgen: Ein Dokument gehört stilistisch einer bestimmten Datenbasis an, welche durch sehr einfache Merkmale bei hoher Genauigkeit automatisch bestimmt werden kann. Durch diese Art von Klassifikation kann eine Reduktion des Suchraumes um einen Faktor der Größenordnung 4­10 erfolgen. Die Anwendung von thematischen Merkmalen zur Textklassifikation bei einer Nachrichtendatenbank resultiert in einer Reduktion um einen Faktor 18. Da Sprachdokumente sehr lang sein können müssen sie in thematische Segmente unterteilt werden. Ein neuer probabilistischer Ansatz sowie neue Merkmale (Sprecherinitia­ tive und Stil) liefern vergleichbare oder bessere Resultate als traditionelle schlüsselwortbasierte Ansätze. Diese thematische Segmente können durch die vorherrschende Aktivität charakterisiert werden (erzählen, diskutieren, planen, ...), die durch ein neuronales Netz detektiert werden kann. Die Detektionsraten sind allerdings begrenzt da auch Menschen diese Aktivitäten nur ungenau bestimmen. Eine maximale Reduktion des Suchraumes um den Faktor 6 ist bei den verwendeten Daten theoretisch möglich. Eine thematische Klassifikation dieser Segmente wurde ebenfalls auf einer Datenbasis durchgeführt, die Detektionsraten für diesen Index sind jedoch gering. Auf der Ebene der einzelnen Äußerungen können Dialogakte wie Aussagen, Fragen, Rückmeldungen (aha, ach ja, echt?, ...) usw. mit einem diskriminativ trainierten Hidden Markov Model erkannt werden. Dieses Verfahren kann um die Erkennung von kurzen Folgen wie Frage/Antwort­Spielen erweitert werden (Dialogspiele). Dialogakte und ­spiele können eingesetzt werden um Klassifikatoren für globale Sprechstile zu bauen. Ebenso könnte ein Benutzer sich an eine bestimmte Dialogaktsequenz erinnern und versuchen, diese in einer grafischen Repräsentation wiederzufinden. In einer Studie mit sehr pessimistischen Annahmen konnten Benutzer eines aus vier ähnlichen und gleichwahrscheinlichen Gesprächen mit einer Genauigkeit von ~ 43% durch eine graphische Repräsentation von Aktivität bestimmt. Dialogakte könnte in diesem Szenario ebenso nützlich sein, die Benutzerstudie konnte aufgrund der geringen Datenmenge darüber keinen endgültigen Aufschluß geben. Die Studie konnte allerdings für detailierte Basismerkmale wie Formalität und Sprecheridentität keinen Effekt zeigen. Abstract Written language is one of our primary means for documenting our lives, achievements, and environment. Our capabilities to record, store and retrieve audio, still pictures, and video are undergoing a revolution and may support, supplement or even replace written documentation. This technology enables us to record information that would otherwise be lost, lower the cost of documentation and enhance high­quality documents with original audiovisual material. The indexing of the audio material is the key technology to realize those benefits. This work presents effective alternatives to keyword based indices which restrict the search space and may in part be calculated with very limited resources. Indexing speech documents can be done at a various levels: Stylistically a document belongs to a certain database which can be determined automatically with high accuracy using very simple features. The resulting factor in search space reduction is in the order of 4­10 while topic classification yielded a factor of 18 in a news domain. Since documents can be very long they need to be segmented into topical regions. A new probabilistic segmentation framework as well as new features (speaker initiative and style) prove to be very effective compared to traditional keyword based methods. At the topical segment level activities (storytelling, discussing, planning, ...) can be detected using a machine learning approach with limited accuracy; however even human annotators do not annotate them very reliably. A maximum search space reduction factor of 6 is theoretically possible on the databases used. A topical classification of these regions has been attempted on one database, the detection accuracy for that index, however, was very low. At the utterance level dialogue acts such as statements, questions, backchannels (aha, yeah, ...), etc. are being recognized using a novel discriminatively trained HMM procedure. The procedure can be extended to recognize short sequences such as question/answer pairs, so called dialogue games. Dialog acts and games are useful for building classifiers for speaking style. Similarily a user may remember a certain dialog act sequence and may search for it in a graphical representation. In a study with very pessimistic assumptions users are able to pick one out of four similar and equiprobable meetings correctly with an accuracy ~ 43% using graphical activity information. Dialogue acts may be useful in this situation as well but the sample size did not allow to draw final conclusions. However the user study fails to show any effect for detailed basic features such as formality or speaker identity

Benchopt: Reproducible, efficient and collaborative optimization benchmarks

Numerical validation is at the core of machine learning research as it allows to assess the actual impact of new methods, and to confirm the agreement between theory and practice. Yet, the rapid development of the field poses several challenges: researchers are confronted with a profusion of methods to compare, limited transparency and consensus on best practices, as well as tedious re-implementation work. As a result, validation is often very partial, which can lead to wrong conclusions that slow down the progress of research. We propose Benchopt, a collaborative framework to automate, reproduce and publish optimization benchmarks in machine learning across programming languages and hardware architectures. Benchopt simplifies benchmarking for the community by providing an off-the-shelf tool for running, sharing and extending experiments. To demonstrate its broad usability, we showcase benchmarks on three standard learning tasks: $\ell_2$-regularized logistic regression, Lasso, and ResNet18 training for image classification. These benchmarks highlight key practical findings that give a more nuanced view of the state-of-the-art for these problems, showing that for practical evaluation, the devil is in the details. We hope that Benchopt will foster collaborative work in the community hence improving the reproducibility of research findings.Comment: Accepted in proceedings of NeurIPS 22; Benchopt library documentation is available at https://benchopt.github.io

Path dependence, its critics and the quest for ‘historical economics’

The concept of path dependence refers to a property of contingent, non- reversible dynamical processes, including a wide array of biological and social processes that can properly be described as 'evolutionary.' To dispell existing confusions in the literature, and clarify the meaning and significance of path dependence for economists, the paper formulates definitions that relate the phenomenon to the property of non-ergodicity in stochastic processes; it examines the nature of the relationship between between path dependence and 'market failure,' and discusses the meaning of 'lock-in.' Unlike tests for the presence of non-ergodicity, assessments of the economic significance of path dependence are shown to involve difficult issues of counterfactual specification, and the welfare evaluation of alternative dynamic paths rather than terminal states. The policy implications of the existence of path dependence are shown to be more subtle and, as a rule, quite different from those which have been presumed by critics of the concept. A concluding section applies the notion of 'lock-in' reflexively to the evolution of economic analysis, suggesting that resistence to historical economics is a manifestation of 'sunk cost hysteresis' in the sphere of human cognitive development.path dependence, non-ergodicity, irreversibility, lock-in, counterfactual analysis

Taming Model Uncertainty in Self-adaptive Systems Using Bayesian Model Averaging

Research on uncertainty quantification and mitigation of software-intensive systems and (self-)adaptive systems, is increasingly gaining momentum, especially with the availability of statistical inference techniques (such as Bayesian reasoning) that make it possible to mitigate uncertain (quality) attributes of the system under scrutiny often encoded in the system model in terms of model parameters. However, to the best of our knowledge, the uncertainty about the choice of a specific system model did not receive the deserved attention.This paper focuses on self-adaptive systems and investigates how to mitigate the uncertainty related to the model selection process, that is, whenever one model is chosen over plausible alternative and competing models to represent the understanding of a system and make predictions about future observations. In particular, we propose to enhance the classical feedback loop of a self-adaptive system with the ability to tame the model uncertainty using Bayesian Model Averaging. This method improves the predictions made by the analyze component as well as the plan that adopts metaheuristic optimizing search to guide the adaptation decisions. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates the cost-effectiveness of our approach using an exemplar case study in the robotics domain