Curve forecasting by functional autoregression

Data in which each observation is a curve occur in many applied problems. This paper explores prediction in time series in which the data is generated by a curve-valued autoregression process. It develops a novel technique, the predictive factor decomposition, for estimation of the autoregression operator, which is designed to be better suited for prediction purposes than the principal components method. The technique is based on finding a reduced rank approximation to the autoregression operator that minimizes the norm of the expected prediction error. Implementing this idea, we relate the operator approximation problem to an eigenvalue problem for an operator pencil that is formed by the cross-covariance and covariance operators of the autoregressive process. We develop an estimation method based on regularization of the empirical counterpart of this eigenvalue problem, and prove that with a certain choice of parameters, the method consistently estimates the predictive factors. In addition, we show that forecasts based on the estimated predictive factors converge in probability to the optimal forecasts. The new method is illustrated by an analysis of the dynamics of the term structure of Eurodollar futures rates. We restrict the sample to the period of normal growth and find that in this subsample the predictive factor technique not only outperforms the principal components method but also performs on par with the best available prediction methods

An embedding technique for the solution of reaction-fiffusion equations on algebraic surfaces with isolated singularities

In this paper we construct a parametrization-free embedding technique for numerically evolving reaction-diffusion PDEs defined on algebraic curves that possess an isolated singularity. In our approach, we first desingularize the curve by appealing to techniques from algebraic geometry.\ud We create a family of smooth curves in higher dimensional space that correspond to the original curve by projection. Following this, we pose the analogous reaction-diffusion PDE on each member of this family and show that the solutions (their projection onto the original domain) approximate the solution of the original problem. Finally, we compute these approximants numerically by applying the Closest Point Method which is an embedding technique for solving PDEs on smooth surfaces of arbitrary dimension or codimension, and is thus suitable for our situation. In addition, we discuss the potential to generalize the techniques presented for higher-dimensional surfaces with multiple singularities

Pathway-Based Genomics Prediction using Generalized Elastic Net.

We present a novel regularization scheme called The Generalized Elastic Net (GELnet) that incorporates gene pathway information into feature selection. The proposed formulation is applicable to a wide variety of problems in which the interpretation of predictive features using known molecular interactions is desired. The method naturally steers solutions toward sets of mechanistically interlinked genes. Using experiments on synthetic data, we demonstrate that pathway-guided results maintain, and often improve, the accuracy of predictors even in cases where the full gene network is unknown. We apply the method to predict the drug response of breast cancer cell lines. GELnet is able to reveal genetic determinants of sensitivity and resistance for several compounds. In particular, for an EGFR/HER2 inhibitor, it finds a possible trans-differentiation resistance mechanism missed by the corresponding pathway agnostic approach