Generalised M-Lasso for robust, spatially regularised hurst estimation

A generalised Lasso iteratively reweighted scheme is here introduced to perform spatially regularised Hurst estimation on semi-local, weakly self-similar processes. This is extended further to the robust, heavy-tailed case whereupon the generalised M-Lasso is proposed. The design successfully incorporates both a spatial derivative in the generalised Lasso regulariser operator and a weight matrix formulated in the wavelet domain. The result simultaneously spatially smooths the Hurst estimates and downweights outliers. Experiments using a Hampel score function confirm that the method yields superior Hurst estimates in the presence of strong outliers. Moreover, it is shown that the inferred weight matrix can be used to perform wavelet shrinkage and denoise fractional Brownian surfaces in the presence of strong, localised, band-limited noise

Semi-local scaling exponent estimation with box-penalty constraints and total-variation regularisation

We here establish and exploit the result that 2-D isotropic self-similar fields beget quasi-decorrelated wavelet coefficients and that the resulting localised log sample second moment statistic is asymptotically normal. This leads to the development of a semi-local scaling exponent estimation framework with optimally modified weights. Furthermore, recent interest in penalty methods for least squares problems and generalised Lasso for scaling exponent estimation inspires the simultaneous incorporation of both bounding box constraints and total variation smoothing into an iteratively reweighted least-squares estimator framework. Numerical results on fractional Brownian fields with global and piecewise constant, semi-local Hurst parameters illustrate the benefits of the new estimators

Piecewise parameterised Markov random fields for semi-local Hurst estimation

Semi-local Hurst estimation is considered by incorporating a Markov random field model to constrain a wavelet-based pointwise Hurst estimator. This results in an estimator which is able to exploit the spatial regularities of a piecewise parametric varying Hurst parameter. The pointwise estimates are jointly inferred along with the parametric form of the underlying Hurst function which characterises how the Hurst parameter varies deterministically over the spatial support of the data. Unlike recent Hurst regularistion methods, the proposed approach is flexible in that arbitrary parametric forms can be considered and is extensible in as much as the associated gradient descent algorithm can accommodate a broad class of distributional assumptions without any significant modifications. The potential benefits of the approach are illustrated with simulations of various first-order polynomial forms

Probabilistic methods for high dimensional signal processing

This thesis investigates the use of probabilistic and Bayesian methods for analysing high dimensional signals. The work proceeds in three main parts sharing similar objectives. Throughout we focus on building data efficient inference mechanisms geared toward high dimensional signal processing. This is achieved by using probabilistic models on top of informative data representation operators. We also improve on the fitting objective to make it better suited to our requirements. Variational Inference We introduce a variational approximation framework using direct optimisation of what is known as the scale invariant Alpha-Beta divergence (sAB-divergence). This new objective encompasses most variational objectives that use the Kullback-Leibler, the Rényi or the gamma divergences. It also gives access to objective functions never exploited before in the context of variational inference. This is achieved via two easy to interpret control parameters, which allow for a smooth interpolation over the divergence space while trading-off properties such as mass-covering of a target distribution and robustness to outliers in the data. Furthermore, the sAB variational objective can be optimised directly by re-purposing existing methods for Monte Carlo computation of complex variational objectives, leading to estimates of the divergence instead of variational lower bounds. We show the advantages of this objective on Bayesian models for regression problems. Roof-Edge hidden Markov Random Field We propose a method for semi-local Hurst estimation by incorporating a Markov random field model to constrain a wavelet-based pointwise Hurst estimator. This results in an estimator which is able to exploit the spatial regularities of a piecewise parametric varying Hurst parameter. The pointwise estimates are jointly inferred along with the parametric form of the underlying Hurst function which characterises how the Hurst parameter varies deterministically over the spatial support of the data. Unlike recent Hurst regularisation methods, the proposed approach is flexible in that arbitrary parametric forms can be considered and is extensible in as much as the associated gradient descent algorithm can accommodate a broad class of distributional assumptions without any significant modifications. The potential benefits of the approach are illustrated with simulations of various first-order polynomial forms. Scattering Hidden Markov Tree We here combine the rich, over-complete signal representation afforded by the scattering transform together with a probabilistic graphical model which captures hierarchical dependencies between coefficients at different layers. The wavelet scattering network result in a high-dimensional representation which is translation invariant and stable to deformations whilst preserving informative content. Such properties are achieved by cascading wavelet transform convolutions with non-linear modulus and averaging operators. The network structure and its distributions are described using a Hidden Markov Tree. This yields a generative model for high dimensional inference and offers a means to perform various inference tasks such as prediction. Our proposed scattering convolutional hidden Markov tree displays promising results on classification tasks of complex images in the challenging case where the number of training examples is extremely small. We also use variational methods on the aforementioned model and leverage the objective sAB variational objective defined earlier to improve the quality of the approximation

Combining local regularity estimation and total variation optimization for scale-free texture segmentation

Texture segmentation constitutes a standard image processing task, crucial to many applications. The present contribution focuses on the particular subset of scale-free textures and its originality resides in the combination of three key ingredients: First, texture characterization relies on the concept of local regularity ; Second, estimation of local regularity is based on new multiscale quantities referred to as wavelet leaders ; Third, segmentation from local regularity faces a fundamental bias variance trade-off: In nature, local regularity estimation shows high variability that impairs the detection of changes, while a posteriori smoothing of regularity estimates precludes from locating correctly changes. Instead, the present contribution proposes several variational problem formulations based on total variation and proximal resolutions that effectively circumvent this trade-off. Estimation and segmentation performance for the proposed procedures are quantified and compared on synthetic as well as on real-world textures

Long memory estimation for complex-valued time series

Long memory has been observed for time series across a multitude of fields and the accurate estimation of such dependence, e.g. via the Hurst exponent, is crucial for the modelling and prediction of many dynamic systems of interest. Many physical processes (such as wind data), are more naturally expressed as a complex-valued time series to represent magnitude and phase information (wind speed and direction). With data collection ubiquitously unreliable, irregular sampling or missingness is also commonplace and can cause bias in a range of analysis tasks, including Hurst estimation. This article proposes a new Hurst exponent estimation technique for complex-valued persistent data sampled with potential irregularity. Our approach is justified through establishing attractive theoretical properties of a new complex-valued wavelet lifting transform, also introduced in this paper. We demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed estimation method through simulations across a range of sampling scenarios and complex- and real-valued persistent processes. For wind data, our method highlights that inclusion of the intrinsic correlations between the real and imaginary data, inherent in our complex-valued approach, can produce different persistence estimates than when using real-valued analysis. Such analysis could then support alternative modelling or policy decisions compared with conclusions based on real-valued estimation

Untangling hotel industry’s inefficiency: An SFA approach applied to a renowned Portuguese hotel chain

The present paper explores the technical efficiency of four hotels from Teixeira Duarte Group - a renowned Portuguese hotel chain. An efficiency ranking is established from these four hotel units located in Portugal using Stochastic Frontier Analysis. This methodology allows to discriminate between measurement error and systematic inefficiencies in the estimation process enabling to investigate the main inefficiency causes. Several suggestions concerning efficiency improvement are undertaken for each hotel studied.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Network approaches to understanding the functional effects of focal brain lesions

Complex network models of functional connectivity have emerged as a paradigm shift in brain mapping over the past decade. Despite significant attention within the neuroimaging and cognitive neuroscience communities, these approaches have hitherto not been extensively explored in neurosurgery. The aim of this thesis is to investigate how the field of connectomics can contribute to understanding the effects of focal brain lesions and to functional brain mapping in neurosurgery. This datasets for this thesis include a clinical population with focal brain tumours and a cohort focused on healthy adolescent brain development. Multiple network analyses of increasing complexity are performed based upon resting state functional MRI. In patients with focal brain tumours, the full complement of resting state networks were apparent, while also suggesting putative patterns of network plasticity. Connectome analysis was able to identify potential signatures of node robustness and connections at risk that could be used to individually plan surgery. Focal lesions induced the formation of new hubs while down regulating previously established hubs. Overall these data are consistent with a dynamic rather than a static response to the presence of focal lesions. Adolescent brain development demonstrated discrete dynamics with distinct gender specific and age-gender interactions. Network architecture also became more robust, particularly to random removal of nodes and edges. Overall these data provide evidence for the early vulnerability rather than enhanced plasticity of brain networks. In summary, this thesis presents a combined analysis of pathological and healthy development datasets focused on understanding the functional effects of focal brain lesions at a network level. The coda serves as an introduction to a forthcoming study, known as Connectomics and Electrical Stimulation for Augmenting Resection (CAESAR), which is an evolution of the results and methods herein.MGH is funded by the Wellcome Trust Neuroscience in Psychiatry Network with additional support from the National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases