Trend Detection based Regret Minimization for Bandit Problems

We study a variation of the classical multi-armed bandits problem. In this problem, the learner has to make a sequence of decisions, picking from a fixed set of choices. In each round, she receives as feedback only the loss incurred from the chosen action. Conventionally, this problem has been studied when losses of the actions are drawn from an unknown distribution or when they are adversarial. In this paper, we study this problem when the losses of the actions also satisfy certain structural properties, and especially, do show a trend structure. When this is true, we show that using \textit{trend detection}, we can achieve regret of order $\tilde{O} (N \sqrt{TK})$ with respect to a switching strategy for the version of the problem where a single action is chosen in each round and $\tilde{O} (Nm \sqrt{TK})$ when $m$ actions are chosen each round. This guarantee is a significant improvement over the conventional benchmark. Our approach can, as a framework, be applied in combination with various well-known bandit algorithms, like Exp3. For both versions of the problem, we give regret guarantees also for the \textit{anytime} setting, i.e. when the length of the choice-sequence is not known in advance. Finally, we pinpoint the advantages of our method by comparing it to some well-known other strategies

Multi-armed bandit problem with precedence relations

Consider a multi-phase project management problem where the decision maker needs to deal with two issues: (a) how to allocate resources to projects within each phase, and (b) when to enter the next phase, so that the total expected reward is as large as possible. We formulate the problem as a multi-armed bandit problem with precedence relations. In Chan, Fuh and Hu (2005), a class of asymptotically optimal arm-pulling strategies is constructed to minimize the shortfall from perfect information payoff. Here we further explore optimality properties of the proposed strategies. First, we show that the efficiency benchmark, which is given by the regret lower bound, reduces to those in Lai and Robbins (1985), Hu and Wei (1989), and Fuh and Hu (2000). This implies that the proposed strategy is also optimal under the settings of aforementioned papers. Secondly, we establish the super-efficiency of proposed strategies when the bad set is empty. Thirdly, we show that they are still optimal with constant switching cost between arms. In addition, we prove that the Wald's equation holds for Markov chains under Harris recurrent condition, which is an important tool in studying the efficiency of the proposed strategies.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921706000001067 in the IMS Lecture Notes Monograph Series (http://www.imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org